Iran

Israel’s vow to make Iran pay a price for carrying out a large-scale missile strike on the Jewish state has prompted panic buying of gasoline in major Iranian cities and a day-long suspension of commercial flights in Iranian airspace.

Iran fired about 200 ballistic missiles at Israel after nightfall on Tuesday, in a major escalation of a yearlong conflict between Israel and Iran’s regional proxy forces. The Israeli military intercepted most of the missiles with help from allied U.S. naval forces.

Speaking late Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran’s Islamist rulers had made a “big mistake” by attacking his nation. Other Israeli officials warned those rulers to expect a powerful and painful response.

Israel’s threats sparked long lines of cars outside gas stations in major Iranian cities as drivers rushed to fill their vehicles’ tanks.

One video posted to social media and vetted by VOA Persian showed dozens of cars waiting to fill up at a gas station in Tehran, apparently on Wednesday. Other social media clips reviewed by VOA Persian appeared to show similar long lines of vehicles outside gas stations late Tuesday in the Tehran provincial city of Eslamshahr and in the central city of Isfahan.

VOA could not independently confirm the panic buying at the gas stations seen in the videos because it is barred from operating inside Iran.

In another apparent reaction to Israel’s threat of a retaliatory strike, Iran shut its airspace to all domestic and international flights after completing its missile attack. The Iranian Civil Aviation Organization’s Aerospace Committee said in a Wednesday statement that flights would remain suspended until at least 5 a.m. local time on Thursday to “maintain the safety of passengers.”

Flight tracking website FlightAware showed domestic and international commercial flights resuming over Iranian airspace after dawn on Thursday.

Western media reported on Wednesday that Israel may target Iran’s oil and other energy facilities in its threatened retaliation. There was no confirmation from Israel.

Any Israeli strike on Iranian oil or gas infrastructure would have a big economic impact on the country, according to Kpler’s Homayoun Falakshahi, a senior oil analyst for the Belgium-based global trade data firm.

In a message to VOA, Falakshahi said Iran sources most of its gasoline from domestically produced oil that it refines into petroleum products.

Iran’s Islamist rulers also rely heavily on revenue from energy exports to major customers such as China, a practice they have maintained for years in defiance of U.S. sanctions. Tehran has shipped an average of 1.54 million barrels of crude oil and gas condensate per day for the year to date, according to Falakshahi.

Iran does not publish official data on its energy exports as part of its efforts to circumvent sanctions. Kpler uses a variety of sources to estimate those Iranian exports, such as location data from oil tankers' Automatic Identification System transponders, satellite imagery, and information provided by personnel at ports.

The impact of an Israeli attack on Iran's energy exports would depend on whether Israel targets export infrastructure, Falakshahi said. “For now, I don’t think such an attack will be the case, because China would get quite upset,” he added.

This story was produced in collaboration with VOA’s Persian Service.

Since the start of Israel's war with Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza in October 2023, President Joe Biden has warned the U.S. ally against widening the conflict with Tehran's other proxies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, and with Iran itself.

Many fear that moment has come.

In the past 10 days, Israel has unleashed an air campaign on Lebanon, striking over 3,600 Hezbollah-linked targets, according to Israel Defense Forces statements. On Tuesday, Israel launched what it called a limited ground offensive into southern Lebanon.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also vowed retaliation for Tehran's launching of 180 missiles toward Israel on Tuesday, an attack that damaged a school in the Israeli city of Hod Hasharon and killed at least one person in the West Bank.

Meanwhile, in Damascus, Syrian state media said that three civilians had been killed in Israeli strikes Tuesday. More strikes were reported in the Syrian capital on Wednesday.

Biden said his administration was giving Israel "advice" and urging it to respond proportionally. He told reporters Wednesday that he had discussed the matter with leaders of the Group of Seven and that he might speak with Netanyahu "relatively soon."

"We'll be discussing with the Israelis what they're going to do, but they — every — all seven of us [G7 leaders] agree that they have a right to respond, but they should respond in proportion," he told reporters.

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Netanyahu has threatened retaliation beyond Iran, to countries where Tehran's proxies are located.

"We fight the axis of evil everywhere," he said Tuesday. "This is true for Judea and Samaria [West Bank]. It is true for Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria. And it is also true for Iran."

Iran has for years used its proxies — Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen — to attack Israel. It launched its first direct attack with a barrage of missiles and drones on Israeli soil in April, two weeks after Israel's deadly strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria.

At that time, Israel's retaliatory attack against Tehran was measured, and as many analysts point out, calibrated to stop the escalation. They predict Israel will respond more strongly this time, possibly targeting Iranian nuclear or oil facilities.

When asked, Biden said he would not support any Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear sites. He said more G7 sanctions would be imposed on Tehran.

Tehran said its barrage of missiles Tuesday was in retaliation for Israel's recent killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and an Iranian military commander.

Fears US will be dragged into war

Washington fears further escalation could drag the United States directly into war should Iran retaliate again against Israel, especially if it hits American interests.

"That could mean attacking oil-producing facilities in Saudi Arabia," said Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. negotiator for the Middle East who is now with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "That could mean empowering pro-Iranian groups in Iraq and Syria to attack American forces."

"And yes, it could provide an avenue, a pathway, for the United States to get into this war," he told VOA.

With the largest military presence in the region compared with other external actors, the U.S. is already indirectly involved. Two U.S. Navy destroyers deployed to the eastern Mediterranean, the USS Bulkeley and USS Cole, joined Israeli air defense units Tuesday in firing about a dozen interceptors to shoot down inbound Iranian missiles, said Pentagon spokesman Major General Pat Ryder.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei blamed the U.S. and European countries for the wars in the Middle East.

"If they rid the region of their presence, no doubt these conflicts, wars and clashes will completely go away," he said.

The White House has not responded to VOA's requests for comment on Khamenei's remarks.

Containing the conflict

It is unclear whether Biden will use offensive capabilities to strike Iran directly. What's clear is that despite calls for a cease-fire in Gaza and Lebanon, Washington has not succeeded in containing the conflict.

"The key drivers of events in the Middle East today are the players that are engaged in these combat operations," said Brian Katulis, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. "It's Israel, it's Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and it's Iran and its networks across the region, including the Houthis in Yemen."

Washington has been largely operating "as a bystander," trying to prevent the worst outcomes, Katulis said. The administration's approach has been "largely reactive, tactical crisis management," he added.

Biden has so far refused to condition military aid to Israel — his biggest leverage in pressuring the country to agree to a cease-fire. He and others in his administration frequently underscore that they support Israel's right to defend itself.

It's "almost inconceivable now" that Biden would restrict military assistance to Israel, Miller said. In any case, he said, U.S. pressure is unlikely to have an impact.

Over the past weeks, Hezbollah's capacity as an organized military force has been degraded. And having been pummeled for almost a year by Israel's campaign, Hamas no longer stands as an organized military structure.

"The Israelis are determined with this momentum to break with what the Iranians and the axis of resistance called the ring of fire," Miller said, referring to Tehran's strategy of surrounding Israel with its proxies.

Even if Israel succeeds, Miller said he is skeptical that it can turn its military victories into political agreements that would lead to peace.

Miller grimly predicted that the three wars of attrition between Israel and Hamas, Israel and Hezbollah, and Israel and Iran will continue, albeit with less intensity.

Natasha Mozgovaya contributed to this report.