Accessibility links

Breaking News

Iran

FILE - Poll workers with the Hillsborough County Supervisor of Elections Office work to set up early voting equipment at the Seffner-Mango Branch Library in Seffner, Florida, August 2, 2024.
FILE - Poll workers with the Hillsborough County Supervisor of Elections Office work to set up early voting equipment at the Seffner-Mango Branch Library in Seffner, Florida, August 2, 2024.

There is new evidence China, Iran and Russia are aggressively expanding their efforts to influence American voters to potentially sway the result of the upcoming U.S. elections.

Two threat intelligence reports Wednesday, one from software giant Microsoft and the other from the cybersecurity firm Recorded Future, detail growing activity by cyber actors linked to each country — all aiming to impact U.S. public perceptions with less than two weeks before voters go to the polls.

The biggest change, according to Microsoft, comes from Chinese-linked actors known to researchers as Spamouflage or Taizi Flood.

“Chinese influence operations have recently taken a new turn, shifting focus to several down-ballot candidates and members of Congress,” Microsoft said, noting that starting in September, China has targeted at least four prominent Republican lawmakers, all of whom are known critics of the government in Beijing.

Most recently, the Chinese-linked accounts targeted Texas Republican Michael McCaul, accusing the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee of “abusing power for personal gain.”

Late last month, other Spamouflage began going after Tennessee Republican Senator Marsha Blackburn, Microsoft said. And earlier this month, the same effort began promoting Blackburn’s opponent in the November 5 election.

Other targets include Alabama Republican Representative Barry Moore, who was subjected to content criticizing his support for Israel, and the vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Republican Marco Rubio, who was accused of corruption.

The Chinese Embassy in Washington rejected the allegations in the Microsoft report.

“The presidential elections are the United States’ domestic affairs,” embassy spokesman Liu Pengyu told VOA Wednesday, echoing previous Chinese denials.

“Such allegations are full of malicious speculations against China, which China firmly opposes,” he added.

U.S. lawmakers, however, said they were not surprised by the uptick in malign activity.

“The CCP [Chinese Communist Party] cannot stand anyone who supports and gives a voice to those they oppress; their response is to sanction and attack,” McCaul said in a statement to VOA.

“I consider it a badge of honor when the CCP — a leading abuser of human rights, censor of free speech, and oppressor of its own people — takes issue with my work,” he said.

Rubio, the top Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee, called for the Chinese influence efforts to “be taken very seriously.”

“China is becoming increasingly more aggressive,” Rubio said in a statement to VOA. “China’s goal is to shape American opinion on critical issues and target specific candidates, especially those they view as anti-China.”

Growing threats

The reports from Microsoft and Recorded Future warn Beijing is not alone.

Specifically, the reports caution the Russian-linked cyber actors, known to researchers as Storm-1679 or Operation Overload, have increased their pace of operations over the past month and a half and are showing signs that more influence operations are on the way.

“Operation Overload is very likely to ramp up its activities,” said the Recorded Future report.

Recorded Future said many of the Russian efforts, of late, have sought to provoke anger toward the LGBTQ+ community “using disinformation to perpetuate discriminatory beliefs around transgender individuals, perceived behavioral issues, gender transition and reassignment surgeries, and pharmaceutical treatments.”

Other influence operations, the report said, are making use of AI-generated voiceovers to emulate the style of U.S. broadcast journalists.

Microsoft said the Russian cyber actors also have found ways to reach additional U.S. voters by shifting much of the content from the Telegram social media platform to X.

“Storm-1679 videos posted to X received higher levels of engagement,” Microsoft said.

Microsoft researchers also warned there are signs Iran is also ramping up its election interference efforts.

The Microsoft report says that in one instance, less than two weeks ago, “an online persona operated by Iran began falsely posing as an American and called on Americans to boycott the elections due to both candidates’ support for Israel’s military operations.”

Russia and Iran, like China, have repeatedly denied any involvement in efforts to meddle with the U.S. election.

But the new findings from Microsoft and Recorded Future align with assessments from U.S. intelligence officials.

“Foreign actors — particularly Russia, Iran and China — remain intent on fanning divisive narratives to divide Americans and undermine Americans’ confidence in the U.S. democratic system consistent with what they perceive to be in their interests,” according to a declassified assessment issued Tuesday by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

U.S. intelligence officials have previously said Russia has been working to boost the chances of former president and current Republican nominee Donald Trump, while Iran has been working to hurt Trump’s reelection bid and instead buoy the campaign of Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee.

And while there is little evidence to suggest China has sought to affect the U.S. presidential race, intelligence officials have said Beijing has been focusing its efforts on congressional and state and local candidates perceived to be promoting policies detrimental to Beijing's interests.

FILE - A United States flag flies in front of the U.S. Capitol dome in Washington, Nov. 6, 2018. U.S. intelligence officials warned on Oct. 22, 2024, that Russia and Iran are stepping up efforts to sow distrust and spark violence before and after the Nov. 5 presidential election.
FILE - A United States flag flies in front of the U.S. Capitol dome in Washington, Nov. 6, 2018. U.S. intelligence officials warned on Oct. 22, 2024, that Russia and Iran are stepping up efforts to sow distrust and spark violence before and after the Nov. 5 presidential election.

Efforts by U.S. adversaries to divide Americans and sow growing distrust in the upcoming presidential election have already begun to intensify, according to senior U.S. intelligence officials, who warn some countries appear to be leaning toward additional measures to spark election-related violence.

The latest declassified assessment, issued Tuesday by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, comes just two weeks before voters head to the polls November 5 to choose a new president and vote on a series of statewide and local races and initiatives.

“Foreign actors — particularly Russia, Iran and China — remain intent on fanning divisive narratives to divide Americans and undermine Americans’ confidence in the U.S. democratic system consistent with what they perceive to be in their interests,” according to the assessment.

But it warns U.S. intelligence agencies are “increasingly confident” that Russia is starting to engage in plans “aimed at inciting violence.”

It further assesses Iran also “may try to incite violence.”

Post-poll closing concerns

Of particular concern is what appears to be a growing focus on the hours, days and weeks after the polls close, when state and local election officials begin to tally and certify the results.

U.S. adversaries "probably will be quick to create false narratives or amplify content they think will create confusion about the election, such as posting claims of election irregularities," said a U.S. intelligence official, briefing reporters on the condition of anonymity to discuss the assessment in additional detail.

The official said Russia, Iran and China “may perceive a window of vulnerability to push disinformation or foment or amplify protests and threats” starting with the moment polling centers close and extending to January 6, when the presidential results are certified by a joint session of Congress.

"Foreign driven or amplified violent protests, violence or physical threats to election workers or state and local officials could challenge state and local officials' ability to conduct elements of the certification and Electoral College process,” the official said. “Particularly if they prevent necessary physical access to facilities or venues."

U.S. intelligence officials have previously warned that Russia and Iran have been especially active, running a variety of influence operations targeting U.S. voters, with a high likelihood that these efforts would extend beyond the November 5 election.

Russia, they said, has been working to boost the chances of former president and current Republican nominee Donald Trump, while Iran has been working to hurt Trump’s reelection bid and instead buoy the campaign of Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee.

China, according to U.S. intelligence officials, has so far stayed out of the presidential race, focusing its efforts on congressional and state and local candidates perceived to be promoting policies detrimental to Beijing's interests, including those voicing support for Taiwan.

Officials said Tuesday that new intelligence streams have raised concerns that Moscow, especially, will try to foment violence once the polls close.

"We expect Russia will be more aggressive in this period if the vice president [Kamala Harris] wins the election," the intelligence official said. “Russia would prefer the former president to win, and they would seek to more aggressively undermine the presidency of the then-president-elect.”

Russia, China and Iran have all rejected previous U.S. accusations of election meddling.

Russia and Iran have yet to respond to requests from VOA for comment, but China on Tuesday again rejected the latest U.S. intelligence findings.

“The presidential elections are the United States’ own affairs,” Liu Pengyu, the spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, told VOA in an email. “China has no intention and will not interfere.”

U.S. intelligence officials, though, point to what they describe as growing examples of malign intent, especially by Russia and Iran.

Influence operations

In one example, the officials said Russian-linked actors were responsible for a post on the X social media platform earlier this month that contained false allegations against Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz.

“There are several indicators of manipulation that are consistent with the influence, efforts and tactics of Russian influence actors this cycle,” the U.S. intelligence official said.

In another case, U.S. officials said a Russian intelligence unit sought to recruit what they assess to likely be an unwitting American to organize protests.

They also point to actions taken last month by multiple U.S. agencies to counter several Russian influence efforts, including the use of fake websites and the creation of a shell company to funnel $10 million to a U.S. media company to push pro-Russian propaganda.

Also last month, the U.S. placed bounties and lodged criminal charges against three Iranian hackers, all accused of seeking to undermine the Trump reelection campaign.

And there are fears that even these types of ongoing influence operations, which often seek to exploit divisive political issues, could lead to problems.

"Even if these disinformation campaigns are not specifically calling for violence, the tactics used to undermine confidence in the democratic institutions can lead to violence, even if not deliberately called for," said a senior official with the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, or CISA, who, like the U.S. intelligence official, spoke on the condition of anonymity.

‘Expect disruptions’

And while U.S. officials express confidence that safeguards are in place to prevent U.S. adversaries from attacking or hacking systems used to record and tally votes, there is concern that they will target other U.S. infrastructure to try to induce panic or violence.

“That is a real possibility," said the CISA official, adding the U.S. public should “expect disruptions.”

“We're going to see a voting location lose power,” the official said. “We're going to see potentially some type of impact on a transportation system. We're going to see a potential ransomware attack against a local election office.”

CISA officials say they have been working with state and local election officials to make sure they are prepared to handle sudden disruptions. And state officials say they are prepared.

“All states consider their election infrastructure and IT [information technology] systems a potential target for threats,” said Steve Simon, Minnesota’s secretary of state and the president of the National Association of Secretaries of State, during a call with reporters Monday.

“Chief elections officials throughout the United States have worked really tirelessly and consistently to mitigate risks to our election systems and processes,” said Simon.

Load more

Special Report

XS
SM
MD
LG