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2012年2月16日
地点：华盛顿， 卡内基国际和平基金会
日程：
9:00 am -9:10am
詹姆斯基金会会长格兰·霍华德致欢迎词
9:10 am -9:40am 前美国太平洋战区司令、海军上将基廷讲话
第一场：（9:40am -10:40am）
中国崛起与地区安全
主持人：卢瑟尔.肖 2049工程研究所高级研究员
演讲人：林和立，詹姆斯基金会高级研究员。 题目： 中国领导层换代及其对中国安全政策的影响
约翰.帕克， 美国和平研究所东北亚项目资深研究员。 题目：日本与韩国对中国崛起的看法
台湾选举后的两岸关系。 主讲人待定。
第二场：11:00 A.M. - 12:15 P.M.
军事现代化的趋势
主持人：CAN公司高级研究员Michael McDevitt, USN (Ret.)
发言人：Dennis Blasko，美国驻华武官（1992-1995）和驻香港武官1995-1996 题目：解放军自我评估及其现代化的方向
Bernard "Bud" Cole 美国海军战争学院国际史教授，题目：中国海军战略之发展
主题演讲12:50 P.M. – 1:45 P.M.
Robert L. Suettinger，CENTRA Technology分析室主任，美国国家安全委员会亚洲事务前主任
题目：对理解中国安全之挑战的分析
第三场：（2:00 P.M. - 3:00 P.M.）中国的C4ISR系统现代化
主持人：James Mulvenon (特邀) ，防务集团副总裁兼情报研究与分析中心主任（Vice-President of Defense Group, Inc.'s Intelligence Division and Director of DGI¹s Center for Intelligence Research and Analysis。）
演讲人：Kevin Pollpeter防务集团中国项目主任（China Program Manager of Defense Group, Inc.'s Center for Intelligence Research and Analysis.）题目：信息化与联合演习
成斌，传统基金会研究员 题目：中国C4ISR 系统现代化：问题，进展和前景）
马克·斯托克斯， 2049项目研究所执行主任，题目：中国太空情报，监视与侦查
第四场：3:15 P.M. - 4:30 P.M.
中国军民关系
主持人：芮效俭 大使，基辛格研究所中国与美国研究室主任， 威尔逊国际学者中心
演讲人：戴维.芬克尔斯坦（David Finkelstein）, CAN公司副总裁兼中国研究主任 题目：中国国家安全决策能力
菲利普·桑德斯（Phillip Saunders）国防大学中国军事研究中心 题目：解放军在中国政治中的利益集团地位
安德鲁·史考贝尔（Andrew Scobell）（特邀）兰德公司高级政治学家 题目：解放军的专业化和军民区别
2012 China Defense and Security Conference
February 16, 2012.
Location:
Root Room, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
1779 Massachusetts Ave NW
Washington, DC 20036
REGISTRATION:
8:30 A.M. - 9:00 A.M.
***
Welcome
9:00 A.M. – 9:10 A.M.
Glen E. Howard
President, The Jamestown Foundation
***
OPENING REMARKS:
9:10 A.M. - 9:40 A.M.
Admiral Timothy Keating, USN (Ret.)
Former Commander, U.S. Pacific Command
Q & A
***
PANEL ONE:
9:40 A.M. - 10:40 A.M.
CHINA'S RISE & REGIONAL SECURITY
Moderator:
L.C. Russell Hsiao
Senior Research Fellow, Project 2049 Institute
Presenters:
China’s Leadership Succession and Its Impact on Chinese Security Policy
Willy Lam
Senior Fellow, The Jamestown Foundation.
Japan and South Korea View China’s Rise
John Park
Senior Program Officer for Northeast Asia, U.S. Institute of Peace
Cross-Strait Relations after the Election
T.B.A.
Q & A
***
COFFEE BREAK:
10:40 A.M. – 11:00 A.M.
***
PANEL TWO:
11:00 A.M. - 12:15 P.M.
TRENDS IN MILITARY MODERNIZATION
Moderator:
RADM Michael McDevitt, USN (Ret.)
Senior Fellow, CNA Corporation
Presenters:
PLA Self-Assessments and the Direction of Modernization
Dennis Blasko
Former Army Attaché in Beijing from 1992-1995 and in Hong Kong from 1995-1996
China’s Evolving Naval Strategy
Bernard "Bud" Cole
Professor of International History, U.S. National War College
The PLA Air Force Foreign Relations Program: Implications for Modernization
Kenneth Allen
Senior Research Analyst, DGI’s Center for Intelligence Research
Q & A
***
LUNCHEON
12:15 P.M. - 12:50 P.M.
***
KEYNOTE ADDRESS
12:50 P.M. – 1:45 P.M.
Robert L. Suettinger
“Analytic Challenges for Understanding Chinese Security”
Analytic Director, CENTRA Technology
Former National Intelligence Officer for East Asia
Former Director for Asian Affairs, National Security Council
Q & A
***
COFFEE BREAK:
1:45 P.M. – 2:00 P.M.
***
PANEL THREE:
2:00 P.M. - 3:00 P.M.
CHINA’S C4ISR MODERNIZATION
Moderator:
James Mulvenon (Invited)
Vice-President of Defense Group, Inc.'s Intelligence Division and Director of DGI¹s Center for Intelligence Research and Analysis.
Presenters:
Informationization and Joint Operations
Kevin Pollpeter
China Program Manager of Defense Group, Inc.'s Center for Intelligence Research and Analysis.
China’s C4ISR Modernization: Problems, Progress, and Prospects
Dean Cheng
Research Fellow, Heritage Foundation
China’s Space-Based Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance
Mark Stokes
Executive Director, Project 2049 Institute
Q & A
***
COFFEE BREAK:
3:00 P.M. - 3:15 P.M.
***
PANEL FOUR:
3:15 P.M. - 4:30 P.M.
CHINA’S CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS
Moderator:
Ambassador Stapleton Roy
Director, Kissinger Institute on China and the United States, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Presenters:
China’s National Security Policymaking Capacity
David Finkelstein
Vice President and Director of China Studies, CNA Corporation
The PLA as an Interest Group in Chinese Politics
Phillip Saunders
Director of Studies and the Director of the Center for Study of Chinese Military Affairs, National Defense University
PLA Professionalization and the Civil-Military Gap
Andrew Scobell (Invited)
Senior Political Scientist, RAND Corporation
Q & A
***
CONCLUSION:
4:30 P.M.
Participant Biographies:
Admiral Timothy Keating
Admiral Keating is a highly decorated, retired Admiral in the U.S. Navy and the former Commander of the United States Pacific Command (CINCPAC), where he worked to preserve the security of our nation across the Asia-Pacific region. Previously he served as Commander of the United States Northern Command (NORTHCOM), responsible for protecting theUnited Stateshomeland and providing support to federal, state and local officials in times of crisis. During this same time, he also served as Commander of the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), providing aerospace warning, air sovereignty and defense for theUnited StatesandCanada.
Robert L. Suettinger
Robert L. Suettinger currently is an Analytic Director at CENTRA Technologies. Previously, he has been Director of Research for MBP Consulting Limited LLC, a Senior Policy Analyst at RANDand a Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Institution. Mr. Suettinger retired from federal government service at the end of 1998, having served for nearly 25 years in the intelligence and foreign policy bureaucracies. He joined the Central Intelligence Agency in 1975. After several years as an analyst and manager in CIA's Directorate of Intelligence, he was assigned as Director of the Office of Analysis for East Asiaand the Pacific in the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research. Subsequently, he served for five years as Deputy National Intelligence Officer for East Asiaon the National Intelligence Council (NIC). Beginning in March 1994, Suettinger was Director of Asian Affairs on the National Security Council, where he assisted NationalSecurityAdvisorsAnthonyLakeand Samuel R. Berger in the development of American policy toward East Asia. He returned to the NIC as National Intelligence Officer for East Asiain October 1997. Suettinger is the author of Beyond Tiananmen: The Politics of US-China Relations, 1989–2000, published in June 2003 by The Brookings Institution.
Willy Lam
Dr. Willy Wo-Lap Lam is a Senior Fellow at The Jamestown Foundation. He has worked in senior editorial positions in international media including Asiaweek newsmagazine, South China Morning Post, and the Asia-Pacific Headquarters of CNN. He is the author of five books on China, including the recently published Chinese Politics in the Hu Jintao Era: New Leaders, New Challenges. Lam is an Adjunct Professor of China studies at Akita International University, Japan, and at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
L.C. Russell Hsiao
L.C. Russell Hsiao is a Senior Research Fellow at the Project 2049 Institute. He was the Editor of China Brief at The Jamestown Foundation from October 2007-July 2011. Previously, he served as a Special Associate/Program Officer in the International Cooperation Department at the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy in Taipei, and a Researcher at The Heritage Foundation. Mr. Hsiao received his B.A in International Studies from theAmericanUniversity'sSchoolofInternational Serviceand the University Honors Program. He is a member of the Young Leaders' Program of the Honolulu-based think tank Pacific Forum CSIS. Mr. Hsiao is proficient in Mandarin Chinese.
Dr. John Park
Dr. John S. Park is a Senior Program Officer who directs Northeast Asia Track 1.5 projects at the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP). These include the Korea Working Group (KWG); the US-China Project on Crisis Avoidance & Cooperation (PCAC); the US-ROK-Japan Trilateral Dialogue in Northeast Asia (TDNA); and the US-China-Japan Project on Risk Reduction & Crisis Prevention (R2CP). Dr. Park joined USIP from Goldman Sachs, where he worked on U.S. military privatization financing projects. Prior to that, he was the project leader of the North Korea Analysis Group at the Harvard Kennedy School. Dr. Park’s writings have appeared in Wall Street Journal Asia, Financial Times, Jane’s Intelligence Review, International Herald Tribune (international edition of The New York Times), Stanford University Press, and Washington Quarterly. Dr. Park received his Ph.D. from Cambridge University and completed his pre-doctoral and postdoctoral training at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School, where he is concurrently a research fellow.
Rear Admiral Michael McDevitt, USN (Ret.)
Rear Admiral Michael McDevitt is a Senior Fellow at CNA – a not-for-profit federally funded research center in Washington, DC. Until recently, he was the Vice President and Director of CNA Strategic Studies, a division of CNA CNA Strategic Studies conducts research and analyses that focus on strategy, political-military issues and regional security studies. During his navy career, Rear Admiral McDevitt held four at-sea commands; including an aircraft carrier battlegroup. He was the Director of the East Asia Policy office for the Secretary of Defense during the George H.W. Bush Administration. He also served for two years as the Director for Strategy, War Plans and Policy (J-5) for US CINCPAC. Rear Admiral McDevitt concluded his 34 year active duty career as the Commandant of the NationalWarCollegein Washington, DC.
Dennis Blasko
Lt-Col (Ret.) Dennis J. Blasko served 23 years in the U.S. Army as a Military Intelligence Officer and Foreign Area Officer specializing in China. Mr. Blasko was an army attaché in Beijing from 1992-1995 and in Hong Kong from 1995-1996. He served in infantry units in Germany, Italy, and Korea and in Washington at the Defense Intelligence Agency, Headquarters Department of the Army (Office of Special Operations), and the National Defense University War Gaming and Simulation Center.
Dr. Bernard "Bud" Cole
Dr. Bernard D. Cole (Captain, USN, Ret.) is Professor of Maritime Strategy at the National War College in Washington, D.C. He previously served 30 years as a Surface Warfare Officer in the Navy, commanding a frigate, USS Rathburne, and Destroyer Squadron 35; he also served as a Naval Gunfire Liaison Officer with the Third Marine Division in Vietnam. Dr. Cole has written numerous articles, including "Drawing Lines at Sea: China's Island Chain Strategy," in the November 2011 Naval InstituteProceedings; and six books: Gunboats and Marines: The U.S. Navy in China; The Great Wall at Sea: China's Navy Enters the 21st Century; Oil for the Lamps of China: Beijing's 21st Century Search for Energy; Taiwan’s Security: History and Prospects; Sealanes and Pipelines: Energy Security in Asia, and an updated edition of The Great Wall at Sea, published in December 2010 as "China's Navy in the Twenty-First Century." Dr. Cole earned an A.B. in History from the University of North Carolina, an M.P.A. (National Security Affairs) from the University of Washington, and a Ph.D. in History from Auburn University.
Kenneth Allen
Kenneth W. Allen is a Senior China Analyst at Defense Group Inc. (DGI). He is a retired U.S. Air Force officer, whose extensive service abroad includes a tour in China as the Assistant Air Attaché. Prior to this, he was a Senior Analyst at the CNA Corporation, Senior Associate at the Henry L. Stimson Center, Executive Vice President of the US-Taiwan Business Council, and served 21 years in the U.S. Air Force, including assignments in Taiwan, Berlin, Japan, Hawaii, China, and Washington DC. He was inducted into the Defense Attaché Hall of Fame in 1997. He has written several books and articles on China's military, including China's Air Force Enters the 21st Century, PLA Air Force: Lessons Learned 1949-2002, and China's Foreign Military Relations. He received a BA from the University of California at Davis, a BA from the University of Maryland in Asian Studies, and an MA from Boston University in International Relations.
Kevin Pollpeter
Kevin Pollpeter, China Project Manager for DGI’s Center for Intelligence Research and Analysis, specializes inChinanational security issues with a focus onChina’s space program. He also served in research positions at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies and the RAND Corporation. Mr. Pollpeter has advanced Chinese language skills. Mr. Pollpeter has a B.A. degree in China Studies fromGrinnellCollegeand a M.A. degree in International Policy Studies from the Monterey Institute of International Studies.
Dean Cheng
Mr. Dean Cheng is a Research Fellow in the Asian Studies Center at the Heritage Foundation. Dean brings detailed knowledge of China's military and space capabilities to bear as The Heritage Foundation's research fellow on Chinese political and security affairs. He specializes in China's military and foreign policy, in particular its relationship with the rest of Asia and with the United States. Cheng has written extensively on China's military doctrine, technological implications of its space program and "dual use" issues associated with the communist nation's industrial and scientific infrastructure. He previously worked for 13 years as a senior analyst, first with Science Applications International Corp. (SAIC), the Fortune 500 specialist in defense and homeland security, and then with the China Studies division of the Center for Naval Analyses, the federally funded research institute.
Mark Stokes
Lt-Col (Ret.) Mark Stokes is the Executive Director of the Project 2049 Institute. Previously, he was the founder and president of Quantum Pacific Enterprises, an international consulting firm, and vice president and Taiwan country manager for Raytheon International. He has served as executive vice president of Laifu Trading Company, a subsidiary of the Rehfeldt Group; a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies; and member of the Board of Governors of the American Chamber of Commerce in Taiwan. A 20-year U.S. Air Force veteran, Stokes also served as team chief and senior country director for the People’s Republic of China, Taiwan and Mongolia in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs. He holds a B.A. from Texas A&M University, and graduate degrees in International Relations and Asian Studies from Boston University and the Naval Postgraduate School. He is a fluent Mandarin speaker.
Ambassador Stapleton Roy
Ambassador Stapelton Roy joined The Asia Foundation's board of trustees in 2001. He became Director of the Kissinger Institute on China and the United States at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in 2008. Prior to this position, he was the managing director of Kissinger Associates, Inc., a strategic consulting firm, since 2001 when he retired from the Foreign Service after a career spanning 45 years with the U.S. Department of State. He has spent much of his career in East Asia, where his assignments included Bangkok, Hong Kong, Taipei, Beijing, Singapore, and Jakarta. He is a three time ambassador, acting as the top U.S. envoy in Singapore (1984-1986), the People's Republic of China (1991-1995), and Indonesia (1996-1999). In 1996 he was promoted to the rank of career ambassador, the highest rank in the Foreign Service. Ambassador Roy's final post with the State Department was as assistant secretary for Intelligence and Research. He is a director of Conoco Phillips and Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold and chairman of the United States Asia Pacific Council.
David Finkelstein
Dr. David Finkelstein is vice president and director of CNA China Studies, which focuses on U.S.-China relations, China’s changing role in the world order, and emerging trends within China. A long-time student of Chinese and Asian affairs, Finkelstein is widely published. He is co-editor of Civil-Military Relations in Today’s China: Swimming in a New Sea (M.E. Sharpe, June 2006), China’s Revolution in Doctrinal Affairs: Recent Trends in the Operational Art of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (CNA, 2005), Chinese Warfighting: The PLA Experience Since 1949 (M.E. Sharpe, 2003), and China’s Leadership in the 21st Century: The Rise of the Fourth Generation (M.E. Sharpe, 2002). A retired U.S. Army officer, Finkelstein is a graduate of the United States Military Academy at West Point, the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College, and the Army War College. He has held command and staff positions at the platoon, company, battalion, and Major Army Command levels. He also held significant China-related positions at the Pentagon as an advisor to the Secretary of Defense and the Chairman of the Joints Chiefs of Staff. He has served on the faculty at West Point, where he taught Chinese history. Finkelstein received his Ph.D. in Chinese history from Princeton University and studied Mandarin at Nankai University in Tianjin, China.
Phillip Saunders
Dr. Saunders is the Director of Studies and the Director of the Center for Study of Chinese Military Affairs. He has been a Distinguished Research Fellow at the National Defense University's Institute for National Strategic Studies since January 2004. He previously worked at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, where he served as Director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program from 1999-2003 and taught courses on Chinese politics, Chinese foreign policy, and East Asian security. Dr. Saunders has conducted research and consulted on East Asian security issues for Princeton University and the Council on Foreign Relations and previously worked on Asia policy issues as an officer in the United States Air Force. Dr. Saunders has published numerous articles and book chapters on China and Asian security issues; his recent publications include the monograph China’s Global Activism: Strategy, Drivers, and Tools. Dr. Saunders attended Harvard College and received his MPA and Ph.D. in International Relations from the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton University.
