U.S. President Joe Biden signed on Tuesday an executive order to boost development of artificial intelligence infrastructure in America. A day earlier, his administration announced sweeping measures to block access to the most advanced semiconductors by China and other adversaries.
But the U.S. left India, its strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific, off a list of 18 countries that are allowed unrestricted access to advanced AI chips. Analysts say while a growing technological relationship between the two countries would likely make India eligible in the future to access advanced U.S. AI chips, New Delhi's existing ties with Moscow and the perception of a less robust technology regulatory framework led to its exclusion from the top list.
Exclusion not a surprise
The Commerce Department's policy framework divides the world into three categories. The first tier includes the U.S. and 18 countries with unrestricted access, followed by a list of more than 100 countries that will be subjected to new caps on advanced semiconductors with individual exemptions. The third tier includes adversaries such as China and Russia that face maximum restrictions.
India falls in the second category, along with U.S. allies like Israel and close friends such as Singapore.
Bhaskar Chakravorti, the dean of global business at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University in Massachusetts, said that India's relationship with Russia "puts it outside a super safe category."
India has had close ties with Russia since the Soviet Union supported its desire for independence from Britain. It maintained those ties during the Cold War, when the U.S. sided with India's rival Pakistan.
Scott Jones, a non-resident fellow at Washington's Stimson Center think tank, highlighted recent reports that accused a few Indian companies of aiding Russia's war on Ukraine, but stressed that while being excluded is a disappointment, it's "not a setback for India."
He also pointed to the perception that "India's ability to control and manage technology is perhaps not as robust as evidenced in some of the 18 countries."
While India may be off the unrestricted list for now, analysts say its growing technological cooperation with the U.S. may shield it from some curbs.
Richard Rossow, senior adviser and chair on India and Emerging Asia Economies at Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the presence of caveats in the new framework would ensure India's later participation.
"The fact that they have announced that there will be a pathway for some countries to get exemptions that are above what they're going to consider the standard cap, India, I imagine, would be on the short list of countries," he told VOA.
In early January, national security adviser Jake Sullivan traveled to India and met with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other senior officials. During the trip, both sides reiterated their commitment to forge a "strategic technology partnership" and strengthen cooperation under the U.S.-India initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET), a bilateral mechanism focused on technology partnership.
On semiconductors, the U.S. is facilitating investments in India's semiconductor manufacturing and intensifying R&D collaboration.
During his trip, Sullivan highlighted the investment of $2.7 billion in India by U.S. chipmaker Micron to create semiconductor packaging facilities, which he hoped would contribute to establishing "India as a new hub in the global chip ecosystem."
The Indian government too is investing billions of dollars through its dedicated program called the India Semiconductor Mission and Production Linked Incentive scheme.
Rossow argued that the Indian government would not have been "terribly surprised" that "they were not included" in the list.
Jones of the Stimson Center agreed.
"Jake Sullivan was in New Delhi last week, and I would be very surprised if he did not inform his Indian counterparts of what was going to happen," he said.
Ensuring America's leadership in AI
The Biden administration has focused on the centrality of artificial intelligence to America's security and economic strength. According to a White House factsheet, the latest steps are part of its effort to prevent offshoring this critical technology and ensure that "the world's AI runs on American rails."
Since October 2022, the U.S. government has enacted a series of export controls, blocking access of advanced semiconductors to China to prevent its use for military applications. While initially the measures adversely affected the Chinese semiconductor industry, Beijing has continued to advance its capabilities and is attempting to narrow the technology gap.
According to Chakravorti of the Fletcher School, there are numerous implementation challenges of this expansive global strategy.
"From lobbying from the U.S. chipmakers that will start as soon as Trump takes office to potential leaks in the carefully calibrated list of countries. Will there be a secondary market? How does this affect where future data centers are built?" he asked.
Jones of the Stimson Center argued that the policy is more a "symbolic gesture than a practical consideration" but has a stern message for the rest of the world.
"The U.S. is clearly saying, if you want to participate in the U.S.-sponsored AI ecosystem, you have to pick now. You pick China or you pick us. You can't have it both ways. You can't play one off against the other. You have to choose," he concluded.
