Taiwan President Lai Ching-te sent a defiant message to Beijing on Thursday, emphasizing that the People’s Republic of China “has no right to represent Taiwan.”
“The Republic of China [Taiwan’s official name] and the People’s Republic of China are not subordinate to each other,” Lai said during his first National Day speech since coming into power in May, adding that “democracy and freedom” are thriving in Taiwan.
In a veiled response to the growing Chinese military and political pressure against Taiwan, Lai vowed to “resist annexation or encroachment” upon Taiwan’s sovereignty, emphasizing the importance of the self-ruled democracy to “demonstrate the strength of deterrence and ensure peace through strength.”
While he reiterated his determination to uphold Taiwan’s sovereignty, Lai also expressed his willingness to work with China on a range of global challenges, including climate change and global pandemics.
“We are willing to work with China on addressing climate change, combatting infectious diseases, and maintaining regional security to pursue peace and mutual prosperity for the well-being of the people on the two sides of the Taiwan Strait,” Lai said during his speech.
In response, Beijing accused the Taiwanese leader of attempting to sever historical ties between Taiwan and China and accused Lai of “peddling various versions of ‘Taiwan independence’ narrative” through his speech.
“It [the speech] once again exposed that he is hellbent on advancing ‘Taiwan independence’ and has the ill intention of heightening tensions in the Taiwan Strait for his selfish political interest,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said during the daily press conference on Thursday.
She added that based on Beijing’s “One China Principle,” “Taiwan has never been a country and will never be a country, and thus has no so-called sovereignty.”
Referencing the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, Lai called on Beijing to “take up its international responsibilities” and contribute to the peace, security, and prosperity of the region and the globe” along with Taiwan.
“We hope that China will live up to the expectations of the international community, that it will apply its influence and work with other countries toward ending Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and conflicts in the Middle East,” he said.
Compared to his inauguration speech in May, during which Lai said China’s ambition to invade Taiwan wouldn’t disappear, analysts say the Taiwanese leader’s speech on Thursday was “more measured and level-headed.”
“If we think back to his inauguration speech, it was the antagonistic tone towards Beijing that was seen as more problematic but what we saw in his speech today was without the provocative aspects towards China, which I think is a good balance for him to strike,” Lev Nachman, a political scientist at National Taiwan University, told VOA by phone.
Some Taiwanese experts say Lai is trying to differentiate Taiwan from China by highlighting areas both sides of the Taiwan Strait can collaborate on from the perspective of a global, democratic country.
“Unlike some former Taiwanese presidents, who mainly focused their speeches on how to resume dialogue with China, Lai tried to highlight some pressing global issues that Taipei and Beijing can work together on,” Wu Se-chih, an expert on Chinese politics at the Taipei University of Marine Technology, told VOA by phone.
Potential Chinese military retaliation
Experts in Taiwan say the Chinese government is still likely to respond by staging a large-scale military exercise or deploying large numbers of military assets to areas around Taiwan.
“There is no incentive for Beijing to soften its response to the Taiwanese government’s attempt to show their goodwill, and the scale of their military response will depend on the Chinese government’s internal assessment of the messages that Lai has delivered today,” Chen Fang-yu, a political scientist at Soochow University in Taiwan, told VOA in a phone interview.
Ahead of Thursday’s National Day celebration, Taiwan’s national security officials warned that Beijing could use Lai’s speech as a pretext to launch another blockade-style military exercise around the island. On Tuesday, Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai urged China to exercise restraint.
According to data released by Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense, China has deployed 78 military aircraft and 36 naval vessels to areas near Taiwan since October 6. Among the 78 Chinese military aircraft operating near Taiwan, 51 of them crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait, which used to act as an unofficial demarcation between Taiwan and China.
China says democratically ruled Taiwan is part of its territory and has repeatedly vowed to reunite with the island through force if necessary.
Ahead of Lai’s highly anticipated speech, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink told VOA that Washington opposes unilateral changes to the status quo by either side of the Taiwan Strait and expects differences between Taipei and Beijing to be resolved peacefully.
Experts say China will likely respond to Lai’s speech on Thursday in four different ways, including rhetorical criticism, targeted economic sanctions against Taiwanese commodities, military aggression, and mobilizing like-minded countries to criticize what they see as “Taiwan’s provocation” of the status quo across the Taiwan Strait.
“Beijing has the escalation control across the Taiwan Strait, and they might be tempted to escalate military tension across the Taiwan Strait in the weeks to come,” Wen-ti Sung, a Taipei-based political scientist at Australian National University, told VOA by phone.
