As Beijing continues to ramp up military pressure on Taiwan, a new opinion poll, released Wednesday, says most Taiwanese believe China is unlikely to launch an attack on the island in the next five years. A majority also say they would be willing to defend Taiwan if that was to happen.
China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has tasked his troops to be prepared for an invasion of Taiwan by 2027. Beijing is carrying out near daily military exercises around Taiwan with 20 Chinese military aircraft and warships testing the island’s defense on Wednesday.
The release of the poll comes one day before Taiwan’s National Day, or Double Ten Day. President Lai Ching-te is expected to deliver an address that will be closely watched by Beijing. Analysts say China could host more drills this week following Lai’s speech.
Beijing, which says Lai is a “dangerous separatist,” held military exercises after his inauguration in late May 2024.
The poll of 1,214 people was carried out by the Institute for National Defense and Security Research. It found that 61% of respondents think it is “unlikely or very unlikely” that China will attack Taiwan within the next five years.
If China were to attack the island, 67.8% of respondents said they would be "very willing or somewhat willing" to fight in defense of Taiwan, while 23.6% said they would not be willing to do so.
Taiwan has been self-ruled since 1949, when Mao Zedong's communists took power in China after defeating Chiang Kai-shek's Kuomintang nationalists in a civil war, and the nationalists relocated to Taiwan. Although Beijing has never ruled the island, it claims Taiwan is part of China’s territory and that it must unify with the authoritarian country, by force if necessary.
According to the poll, respondents were split on their views about whether Taiwan's armed forces have the capability to defend the island from a Chinese attack, with half indicating confidence in the island’s ability to defend itself and the other half expressing no confidence.
Many respondents say they believe the United States would play a role in defending the island if China were to attack, as 74% believed the U.S. government would be likely to "indirectly" help Taiwan by providing food, medical supplies and weapons. Fifty-two percent thought the U.S. military would send troops to help defend against an invasion.
Over the past two years, China has held three large war games around the island, sending ships, planes and warships to encircle Taiwan. The latest drill around Taiwan, “Joint Sword 2024A,” was held just after President Lai Ching-te was sworn into office on May 20.
On Wednesday, Taiwan’s Defense Ministry says China held a “joint combat readiness patrol” after the island detected 20 Chinese Military aircraft and Chinese warships.
“Overall, 20 PLA aircraft in various types [including Su-30, KJ-500, etc.] were detected from 1250hr today. Out of which, 14 crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait and entered the northern, central and southwestern ADIZ,” Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense said in a post on X.
Taiwan’s coast guard also said Wednesday that it seized a Chinese fishing boat, along with nine members of its crew on Tuesday and about one tonne of fish. The vessel was found inside a restricted area of the Taiwan Strait, the sensitive 180-kilometer-wide body of water between Taiwan and China.
Some material for this report was provided by Reuters and Agence France-Presse.
