Iran

Iran is likely to respond to new attacks from Israel or additional Western sanctions by edging ever closer to crossing the nuclear threshold, according to a just-released U.S. intelligence assessment.

The unclassified report, issued Thursday by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, finds that while Tehran is not currently poised to build a nuclear weapon, it is undertaking activities "that better position it to produce one, if it so chooses."

The report states that since July, Iran has continued to increase its stockpiles of 20% and 60% enriched uranium while also manufacturing and operating a growing number of advanced centrifuges.

The U.S. intelligence assessment further warns that Iranian officials have been increasingly willing to "publicly discuss the utility of nuclear weapons."

"Tehran has the infrastructure and experience to quickly produce weapons-grade uranium at multiple underground facilities, if it so chooses," the report says. "Iranian leaders recognize that this bolsters the credibility of threats to develop nuclear weapons."

The ODNI report estimates that Iran's existing stockpiles of enriched uranium far exceed what it needs for civilian purposes and that Tehran could build "more than a dozen nuclear weapons if its total uranium stockpile were further enriched."

A U.S. intelligence assessment of Iran's capabilities issued this past July similarly said that officials in Tehran were becoming more comfortable talking about the use of nuclear weapons.

But the new report suggests Tehran is now prepared to push back against Western pressure, attacks or other threats with more nuclear activity.

"Iran probably will consider installing or operating more advanced centrifuges, further increasing its enriched uranium stockpile, enriching uranium up to 90 percent, or threatening to withdraw from the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons," according to the latest ODNI assessment.

U.S. officials have previously warned that Tehran could produce a nuclear warhead in as little as one to two weeks, though they have also said the Pentagon has options to stop an Iranian nuclear breakout.

The Iranian mission at the United Nations has yet to respond to a request for comment.

U.S. intelligence analysts say that their concerns extend beyond nuclear weapons to include Iran's ballistic missile and drone capabilities.

The U.S. assessment says Iran "almost certainly is incorporating lessons learned from its missile and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attack against Israel in April and from Russia's operational use of Iranian UAVs against Ukraine."

U.S. intelligence additionally "expects Tehran will incorporate performance data from the close-range ballistic missiles it transferred to Russia once they are used in operational conditions."

And help from Russia could also boost Iran's work on multiple space-launch missiles, possibly shortening the timeline for Tehran to produce an intercontinental ballistic missile, the ODNI report warns.

A second unclassified intelligence report released Thursday detailed additional Iranian support for Moscow.

Iran "probably is training and assisting Russian soldiers in UAV [drone] operations," it said, adding, "Moscow and Tehran also have agreed to establish a joint production line in Russia for lethal UAVs."

Washington's most dangerous adversaries may be working together more closely than ever before, but U.S. intelligence analysts think that for now, they are falling short of forming a tight-knit alliance that could more effectively counter the United States.

Concerns among the United States and its allies about growing cooperation among Russia, China, Iran and North Korea have been increasing steadily since Moscow launched its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine — sustained by intelligence showing Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang providing Russia with technology, missiles, drones and even troops for the war effort.

The former commander of U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific earlier this year went as far as to describe the growing ties between the four U.S. adversaries as a nascent "axis of evil."

SEE ALSO:

US Officials Warn of New ‘Axis of Evil’ With China at the Fore

Yet U.S. intelligence officials believe the axis, in some ways, has been bogged down by its own shortcomings.

"They're not acting as a bloc," said Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, speaking Thursday in Washington at the Council on Foreign Relations.

"We don't see them as a sort of four-part alliance or something along those lines," she said. "We don't see them likely as becoming allies in the same way that we are allies with our NATO partners, for example — that kind of level of interoperability and military collaboration."

U.S. intelligence analysts, however, still see the axis as a concern on several fronts.

Haines said the increased cooperation among Russia, China, Iran and North Korea has contributed to a further erosion of international norms around weapons of mass destruction.

Where Russia and China were once more willing to cooperate with the United States and the West on nuclear counterproliferation, Moscow and Beijing now seem more inclined to give Iran and North Korea additional leeway.

"In large part, that's because Russia is now beholden to some extent to both the DPRK [Democratic People's Republic of Korea] and to Iran for advanced weapons, for ammunition, for things that they need in the context of their fight with Ukraine," Haines said.

"They're less likely to push back," she said. "And of course, we've been watching the degree to which they actually, for example, accept DPRK as a nuclear weapon power."

Haines said the increased cooperation among Russia, China, Iran and North Korea has helped all four countries to evade sanctions.

And she said there are even some indications that Russia is willing to take action that would allow Beijing to surpass the U.S. in critical areas.

"They're willing to potentially put more on the table with China to give them things that could actually make China sort of leapfrog in certain technology areas or in other spaces that are of concern to us," Haines said.

Washington's NATO allies have sounded similar alarms in recent months, with some NATO officials telling VOA the axis has already sparked the beginnings of a new global arms race.

SEE ALSO:

West preparing for arms race with Russia, its backers

Russian sabotage

There are also ongoing concerns about the willingness of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea to engage in so-called gray zone activity.

A declassified U.S. National Intelligence Estimate issued in July warned that the next five to six years are "likely to feature more frequent, diverse and damaging acts of coercion and subversion — particularly by China, Iran, Russia and North Korea — below what constitutes armed conflict but outside the bounds of historically legitimate statecraft."

Haines on Thursday said Russian gray zone activities — including efforts at sabotage in Europe — have been "increasing across the board."

"Russia has just invested money, personnel, just an extraordinary amount of effort in this area and just will continue to do so," she said. "And even though we are getting a little better at disrupting some of this activity, we're certainly not, I think, where it makes anybody really comfortable."

US presidential transition

U.S. intelligence analysts are keeping a close watch on how other countries are behaving as Washington prepares for President-elect Donald Trump to take office in January.

"There are certain actors that are trying to pre-position themselves for a next administration," Haines said.

She said intelligence analysts are preparing reports on the activity to share with the incoming Trump administration, as well as keeping an eye out for the potential that some countries may seek to escalate tensions during the transition period.

"Typically, for example, the DPRK engages in some provocative action during transitions," Haines said. "This is sort of one of the classic things we're constantly looking at."