Control of the U.S. Congress is at stake in Tuesday’s voting, with the outcome likely to play a key role in the fate of legislative proposals advanced by whomever wins the presidency, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris or Republican former President Donald Trump.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are at stake in elections throughout the U.S. for new two-year terms, while 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate are being contested for new six-year terms.
Democrats now narrowly control the Senate and Republicans the House, but the majorities in both chambers could flip, or possibly stay the same, election analysts are predicting. Either way, political party control of both chambers is likely to remain narrow, no matter the outcome.
Republicans stand a good chance of taking back control of the Senate, where Democrats hold a 51-49 majority. One seat, in West Virginia, is considered likely to flip to Republicans, giving the party the chance to assume control if it can win one more seat from Democrats. A handful of Democratic incumbent senators are facing stiff Republican opposition, locked in tight contests to win reelection.
A total of 23 of the 34 Senate seats at stake are held by Democrats or independents who caucus with the party.
Analysts say control of the Senate hinges on seven especially competitive contests, while the outcome of fewer than 40 of the 435 Houses races is in doubt, leaving each party safely controlling about 200 seats. Republicans currently hold a 220-212 edge, with three vacant seats.
Political surveys throughout the election campaign have shown voters, much like in the Harris-Trump race for the White House, evenly divided in their political preference for congressional control.
An October Reuters/Ipsos poll found 43% of registered voters would back the Republican House candidate in their district, while 43% would back the Democratic candidate.
Tight contests in the heavily Democratic states of New York and California could determine House control, with Democrats trying to win back a handful of seats they unexpectedly lost in the 2022 elections.
Control of the House may not be known for several days as California has often taken days to count ballots, and recounts and runoffs of close races can take weeks to resolve.
