2024 US Election

Nearly three weeks after the 2024 election, with almost all of the votes counted, it has become clear that Donald Trump won his second term in the White House by orchestrating a nationwide rightward shift in voting patterns that largely persisted across most of the 50 states, whether their electoral votes went to Trump or to his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris.

The main force behind Trump's victory was strong support from his base, which is generally made up of white Americans without a college degree. His win would not have been possible, however, had the president-elect not improved his showing among groups who tend to support Democratic candidates.

Trump won larger shares of the vote in parts of the country with large Hispanic and Asian American populations, many of whom appeared to respond to his criticism of the Biden administration's handling of the economy and of immigration. Many areas of the country with a large concentration of Black voters, who have historically favored Democrats, saw lower turnout than in past years, creating a further disadvantage for Harris.

The shift in favor of Trump was apparent in an overwhelming majority of communities across the country. An analysis of county-level data updated by CNN on November 22 demonstrated that in nearly nine of 10 U.S. counties, Trump's 2024 vote share had improved over that of 2020.

'He did much better'

Drew McCoy, president of Decision Desk HQ, an organization that gathers data on elections in the United States, told VOA that Trump's improvement with the electorate had been broad and cut across several demographic groups.

"We definitely have a lot of data on how Trump did, and across the board, he did much better," McCoy said, mentioning that the president-elect had improved among white voters, Hispanic voters and Asian American voters.

Meanwhile, while many had predicted a sharp increase in the gender gap in favor of Harris, it never materialized.

While female voters appear to have favored Harris decisively, McCoy said the margin was "essentially flat" compared with Trump's last two runs for the presidency.

"It wasn't the blowout across the board with women that many people were expecting," McCoy said.

The shift in the Hispanic vote was especially noticeable, he said. For example, in the heavily Hispanic Rio Grande Valley, just north of the border with Mexico, Trump's share of the vote surged. In Florida's Miami-Dade County region, which Hillary Clinton won by 30 percentage points in 2016, Trump won by 13 points.

Popular and electoral vote tally

Trump became the first Republican candidate in two decades to win the popular vote.

As of November 25, The Associated Press tally had Trump with precisely 50% of the vote and Harris at 48.4%, with the remainder scattered among third-party candidates.

In total, Americans cast more than 151 million votes for president, about 4 million fewer than were cast in 2020, when Trump lost to Joe Biden. However, Trump won approximately 77 million votes, nearly 3 million more than he did in 2020.

Each U.S. state has a specified number of votes in the Electoral College, which is the body that officially elects the president. Each state allocates its votes to candidates based on the popular result in that state, in most cases on a winner-take-all basis.

Trump needed 270 electoral votes to win. He received 312, or 58% of the total available. Historically, that is not a large percentage. Many presidents have won well over 75% of the electoral vote. However, in the seven presidential elections held since 2000, only Barack Obama, in 2008 and 2012, won more than 58% of electoral votes.

Swing state sweep

In the months leading up to the election, the American public's attention was focused on seven battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

In 2020, Trump lost all of them, except for North Carolina, to Biden. This time, Trump won them all, in some cases by larger margins than Biden enjoyed in 2020.

In Arizona, which Biden won by just over 10,000 votes in 2020, Trump won by nearly 200,000 votes. Much of the swing was attributable to a shift in the Hispanic vote toward Trump. He trimmed Biden's advantage considerably, in both more diverse Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix, as well as the heavily Hispanic counties along the state's southern border with Mexico.

In Georgia, Harris' chance for victory hinged on running up her margins in the city of Atlanta and its densely populated suburbs, which represent the core of Democratic support in an otherwise reliably Republican state. In the end, she failed to do so, winning by a slimmer margin than Biden did in populous Fulton, Gwinnett and DeKalb counties.

In Michigan, many of the same dynamics at play across the country remained in force, but Harris' performance was further hindered by the presence of large Arab American voting blocs in several metropolitan areas.

The Biden administration's support for Israel in its ongoing wars in Gaza and Lebanon greatly angered many Arab Americans, and helped hand the state to Trump. In some precincts in the majority Arab American city of Dearborn, where Biden received 88% of the vote in 2020, Harris not only lost to Trump, but came in third, behind Green Party candidate Jill Stein.

Betting on Las Vegas

In Nevada, some 7 in 10 voters live in Clark County, in and around the city of Las Vegas. Nearly 1 in 3 voters in Clark are Hispanic, and the county also has Nevada's largest share of Black and Asian American voters. Biden beat Trump by more than nine percentage points four years ago, but Harris won by less than three, a difference that appears to have been driven by Hispanic and Asian American voters switching to the Republican candidate.

Democrats in North Carolina may have been hopeful that the presence of a popular Democratic gubernatorial candidate on the ticket on the ticket would give Harris a shot at a pickup there. However, Trump improved his margin in the state, winning with 51% of the vote.

One of the things that harmed Harris in North Carolina was earning fewer votes than Biden in majority-Black counties. For example, in majority-Black areas like Bertie and Hertford counties, her winning margin fell by six and seven percentage points, respectively. She also performed worse among college-educated white voters.

In Pennsylvania, which put Biden over the top in 2020, Harris also underperformed. In the city of Philadelphia, she garnered 50,000 fewer votes than Biden had four years earlier. Trump won a much higher share of the vote in several communities with high concentrations of Hispanic voters than he had in 2020 and remained dominant in the state's more rural areas.

Finally, in Wisconsin, Trump triumphed by increasing his vote totals in counties across In some counties in the rural southwestern part of the state, where the white population exceeds 95%, he won by as much as six percentage points more than he did in 2020.

Safe and sound

In the days and weeks leading up to the election, there had been considerable concern about whether the balloting would be disrupted in any way. Trump frequently claimed that fraud was likely, and there was also considerable evidence that non-U.S. actors were using social media to sow doubts about the safety and soundness of the process.

Also, after 2020, when the counting of ballots took several days in a number of key states, there were questions about how long it would take to name a winner.

Several weeks after the polls closed, groups that monitor elections in the U.S told VOA that in terms of its administration, the election had been an unqualified success.

David Becker, executive director and founder of the nonpartisan Center for Election Innovation & Research, called the election "a triumph of public service."

"The election ended up being safe and secure, even with massive amounts of disinformation, even with foreign adversaries like Russia circulating fake videos, even with bomb threats and [the] firebombing of a couple of drop boxes in the Pacific Northwest. All of those things were handled, and largely, everything went very well," he said.

"We had clear results, with a winner declared by the media less than 12 hours after the polls closed," Becker said. "We had no certification challenges. That's just a remarkable success by the professionals who run elections around the country."

Mark Lindeman, policy and strategy director for Verified Voting, an organization that works to ensure the responsible use of technology in elections, agreed.

"The 2024 election went very smoothly, thanks to a lot of preparation and hard work by election officials," Lindeman said.

"Over the last eight years since 2016, the entire country has wrapped its head around election-related cybersecurity. And the level of training and the level of resources both have improved quite substantially," he said.

U.S. farm industry groups want President-elect Donald Trump to spare their sector from his promise of mass deportations, which could upend a food supply chain heavily dependent on immigrants in the United States illegally.

So far Trump officials have not committed to any exemptions, according to interviews with farm and worker groups and Trump's incoming "border czar" Tom Homan.

Nearly half of the nation's approximately 2 million farmworkers lack legal status, according to the Labor and Agriculture departments, as well as many dairy and meatpacking workers.

Trump, a Republican, vowed to deport millions of immigrants in the U.S. illegally as part of his campaign to win back the White House, a logistically challenging undertaking that critics say could split apart families and disrupt U.S. businesses.

Homan has said immigration enforcement will focus on criminals and people with final deportation orders but that no immigrant in the U.S. illegally will be exempt.

He told Fox News on November 11 that enforcement against businesses would "have to happen" but has not said whether the agricultural sector would be targeted.

"We've got a lot on our plate," Homan said in a phone interview this month.

Mass removal of farmworkers would shock the food supply chain and drive consumer grocery prices higher, said David Ortega, a professor of food economics and policy at Michigan State University.

"They're filling critical roles that many U.S.-born workers are either unable or unwilling to perform," Ortega said.

Farm groups and Republican allies are encouraged by the incoming administration's stated focus on criminals.

Dave Puglia, president and CEO of Western Growers, which represents produce farmers, said the group supported that approach and was concerned about effects on the farm sector if a deportation plan was targeted at farmworkers.

Trump transition spokesperson Karoline Leavitt did not directly address the farmer concerns in a statement to Reuters. She said American voters wanted Trump "to implement the promises he made on the campaign trail, like deporting migrant criminals."

Trump announced on Saturday that he would nominate Brooke Rollins, who chaired the White House Domestic Policy Council during his first term, to become agriculture secretary.

Agriculture and related industries contributed $1.5 trillion to the U.S. gross domestic product, or 5.6%, in 2023, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

In his first administration, Trump promised the farm sector that his deportation effort would not target food sector workers, though the administration did conduct raids at some agricultural worksites, including poultry processing plants in Mississippi and produce processing facilities in Nebraska.

U.S. Representative John Duarte, a Republican and fourth-generation farmer in California's Central Valley, said farms in the area depend on immigrants in the U.S. illegally and that small towns would collapse if those workers were deported.

Duarte's congressional seat is one of a handful of close races in which a winner has yet to be declared.

Duarte said the Trump administration should pledge that immigrant workers in the country for five years or longer with no criminal record will not be targeted and look at avenues to permanent legal status.

"I would like to hear more clearly expressed that these families will not be targeted," he said.

'We need the certainty'

Farmers have a legal option for hiring labor with the H-2A visa program, which allows employers to bring in an unlimited number of seasonal workers if they can show there are not enough U.S. workers willing, qualified and available to do the job.

The program has grown over time, with 378,000 H-2A positions certified by the Labor Department in 2023, three times more than in 2014, according to agency data.

But that figure is only about 20% of the nation's farmworkers, according to the USDA. Many farmers say they cannot afford the visa's wage and housing requirements. Others have year-round labor needs that rule out the seasonal visas.

Farmers and workers would benefit from expanded legal pathways for agricultural laborers, said John Walt Boatright, director of government affairs at the American Farm Bureau Federation, a farmer lobby group.

"We need the certainty, reliability and affordability of a workforce program and programs that are going to allow us to continue to deliver food from the farm to the table,” said John Hollay, director of government relations at the International Fresh Produce Association, which represents produce farmers.

For decades, farm and worker groups have attempted to pass immigration reform that would enable more agricultural workers to stay in the U.S., but the legislation has failed so far.

The risk of enforcement against farms is likely low because of the necessity of the workers, said Leon Fresco, an immigration attorney at Holland & Knight.

"There are some very significant business interests that obviously want agricultural labor and need it," he said.

But for farmworkers, the fear of enforcement can create chronic stress, said Mary Jo Dudley, director of the Cornell Farmworker Program, which is training workers to know their rights if confronted by immigration officials.

If there are again raids on meatpacking plants, immigration enforcement should take precautions to avoid detaining workers in the country legally, said Marc Perrone, international president of the United Food and Commercial Workers union, which represents some meatpacking workers.

Edgar Franks, a former farmworker and political director at Familias Unidas por la Justicia, a worker union in Washington state, said the group was seeing new energy from workers to organize.

"The anxiety and fear is real. But if we're together, there’s a better chance for us to fight back," he said.