Yemen’s complex eight-year conflict has given the poorest Arab nation one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. But observers now say a prisoner release is marking a first step toward ending the war.
Saudi Arabia intervened militarily against the Iran-backed Shiite Houthi rebels in 2015, hoping to reinstate Yemen’s internationally recognized government which the militants had ousted.
But continued Houthi missile and drone attacks on Saudi territory, along with economic ambitions to turn Saudi Arabia into a premier tourism and logistical hub by 2030 have made Riyadh want to exit the Yemen conflict.
Chinese-brokered talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran may be providing a way out.
Helen Lackner is a former visiting fellow at the European Council for Foreign Relations and author of several books on Yemen, including Yemen in Crisis, winner of the Grand Prix of Literary Associations 2018 in the Research Category.
Lackner told VOA that the welcome start of prisoner exchanges is separate from the Saudi-Houthi negotiations about the long-term settlement to the conflict. She refers to the internationally recognized government as the IRG.
“The release of prisoners is excellent news. We still have more than 10,000 waiting to be released. The likelihood of a deal between the Saudis and the Houthis in some form or other possibly with the signatures of the IRG is extremely high in the reasonably close future. But that is not the solution to the Yemeni political crisis and to some extent the military crisis, and of course, the humanitarian crisis will not be that significantly changed by such a deal,” she said.
Analysts warn there may be continued fighting among the Yemenis because the Houthis, as the strongest force in the country, may have little incentive to seek an inclusive peace and will likely try to control all of Yemen.
“If the negotiations in their current form succeed, they won’t lead to a durable peace, because the Saudis will have granted de facto recognition to the Houthis ... while excluding other parties,” Abdulghani al-Iryani, a senior researcher at the Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies, told the Christian Science Monitor.
Lackner said that if “the internationally recognized government is made to sign the deal they will sign it because they have no options.”
Also, “the influence of the Emirati-backed Southern Transitional Council, is likely to decrease considerably,” she said. But there are other military and separatist factions present in Yemen who also oppose the Houthis.
Analysts including Lackner, said there are ordinary Yemenis who are terrified of a potential Houthi rule, likening them to the Afghan Taliban.
“It would be a nightmare. But they are the strongest element now. And Yemenis have every right to be most concerned there. Although one would like to say that it would be nice not to have any fighting. If they reach the deal, they will definitely stop attacking the Saudis. That’s the easy bit.” she said.
Analysts also argue that fighting from the war accounts for a smaller proportion of Yemeni deaths than from the Saudi blockade on the country. They are skeptical of whether the proper groundwork has been laid for a truly comprehensive peace agreement.
