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Will Migrant Caravan Move US Voters?

Marvin Sanabria, a Central American migrant traveling with a caravan to the U.S., kneels in prayer after waking up, in Huixtla, Mexico, Oct. 23, 2018.
Marvin Sanabria, a Central American migrant traveling with a caravan to the U.S., kneels in prayer after waking up, in Huixtla, Mexico, Oct. 23, 2018.

While President Donald Trump repeatedly rails against a caravan of undocumented Central American migrants attempting to reach the United States, Democrats are sticking to poll-tested campaign issues like health care with fewer than two weeks to go before midterm elections that will determine which party controls both houses of Congress.

"The caravan — look, that is an assault on our country," Trump said in Houston late Monday at a rally for Republican Senator Ted Cruz of Texas. "And in that caravan you have some very bad people. And we can't let that happen to our country."

President Donald Trump points into the crowd during a campaign rally for Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, at Houston Toyota Center, Oct. 22, 2018, in Houston.
President Donald Trump points into the crowd during a campaign rally for Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, at Houston Toyota Center, Oct. 22, 2018, in Houston.

In Virginia, Republican Senate candidate Corey Stewart seized on the caravan to blast his opponent, Democratic incumbent Tim Kaine.

"Tim Kaine is inviting this invasion into our country," Stewart tweeted. "@timkaine & his fellow socialists are openly calling for these invaders to violate our laws & smash through our borders."


"The timing [of the caravan] works well for Republicans," said Molly Reynolds, a fellow at the Washington-based Brookings Institution. "Republicans have been somewhat concerned about the level of enthusiasm among their base voters in 2018. So, in that sense, it [highlighting the migrant caravan] is really a tactic to motivate the base."

Senate Judiciary Committee Ranking Member Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., speaks to the media, accompanied by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., Oct. 4, 2018 in Washington.
Senate Judiciary Committee Ranking Member Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., speaks to the media, accompanied by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., Oct. 4, 2018 in Washington.

'Fear-mongering'

Many Democrats have not commented on the caravan other than to accuse Republicans of political games.

In a joint statement, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of California said Trump "is desperate to change the subject from health care to immigration because he knows that health care is the number one issue Americans care about."

The Democratic leaders added, "Democrats are focused like a laser on health care and will not be diverted."

U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., center, speaks to reporters following a get out the vote rally, Oct. 22, 2018, at Des Moines Area Community College in Ankeny, Iowa.
U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., center, speaks to reporters following a get out the vote rally, Oct. 22, 2018, at Des Moines Area Community College in Ankeny, Iowa.

Asked about the caravan, California Democratic Senator Kamala Harris on Monday told reporters, "What the people of our country want is leaders who are focused on the challenges that they face every day … not vilifying some group for the sake of fear-mongering and politics."

"What Democrats have decided to do in prosecuting the midterm campaign is focus on health care in particular and other issues that affect everyday Americans," Reynolds said. "They have created a pretty sizable lead in generic ballot polls. So some Democrats ask, 'Why change what's been working so far?'"

Human rights groups dispute Trump's assertions that the caravan includes criminals and Middle Easterners — claims for which he has provided no proof. Numerous migrants interviewed by reporters covering the caravan have maintained they seek a better and safer life in the United States.

Related: Faces in the Crowd: The Honduran Caravan photo gallery

Faces in the Crowd: The Honduran Caravan

A migrant girl, part of a caravan of thousands from Central America en route to the United States, waits to receive food being donated in Huixtla, Mexico, Oct. 23, 2018.
1/12 A migrant girl, part of a caravan of thousands from Central America en route to the United States, waits to receive food being donated in Huixtla, Mexico, Oct. 23, 2018.
A Central American migrant, part of a caravan trying to reach the U.S., waits on the bridge that connects Mexico and Guatemala to cross into Mexico to continue his trip, in Ciudad Hidalgo, Mexico, Oct. 22, 2018.
2/12 A Central American migrant, part of a caravan trying to reach the U.S., waits on the bridge that connects Mexico and Guatemala to cross into Mexico to continue his trip, in Ciudad Hidalgo, Mexico, Oct. 22, 2018.
Genesis, 2, a Honduran migrant, part of a caravan trying to reach the U.S., looks on as she waits for the gate on the bridge that connects Mexico and Guatemala to open in Ciudad Hidalgo, Mexico, Oct. 21, 2018.
3/12 Genesis, 2, a Honduran migrant, part of a caravan trying to reach the U.S., looks on as she waits for the gate on the bridge that connects Mexico and Guatemala to open in Ciudad Hidalgo, Mexico, Oct. 21, 2018.
A Honduran migrant boy carries a bag as he takes part in a caravan heading to the US on the road linking Ciudad Hidalgo and Tapachula, Chiapas state, Mexico, Oct. 21, 2018.
4/12 A Honduran migrant boy carries a bag as he takes part in a caravan heading to the US on the road linking Ciudad Hidalgo and Tapachula, Chiapas state, Mexico, Oct. 21, 2018.
A Honduran migrant boy taking part in a caravan heading to the US, cries as he waits on the Guatemala-Mexico border bridge, in Ciudad Tecun Uman, Guatemala, on Oct. 20, 2018.
5/12 A Honduran migrant boy taking part in a caravan heading to the US, cries as he waits on the Guatemala-Mexico border bridge, in Ciudad Tecun Uman, Guatemala, on Oct. 20, 2018.
A Honduran migrant child held by a Mexican immigration worker, cries after crossing the border between Guatemala and Honduras with his family, in Ciudad Hidalgo, Mexico, Oct. 20, 2018.
6/12 A Honduran migrant child held by a Mexican immigration worker, cries after crossing the border between Guatemala and Honduras with his family, in Ciudad Hidalgo, Mexico, Oct. 20, 2018.
A Honduran migrant, part of a caravan trying to reach the U.S., bleeds after he storms a border checkpoint in Guatemala, in Ciudad Hidalgo, Mexico, Oct. 19, 2018.
7/12 A Honduran migrant, part of a caravan trying to reach the U.S., bleeds after he storms a border checkpoint in Guatemala, in Ciudad Hidalgo, Mexico, Oct. 19, 2018.
Honduran migrants taking part in a caravan heading to the US, arrive at the border crossing point with Mexico, in Ciudad Tecun Uman, Guatemala, on Oct. 19, 2018.
8/12 Honduran migrants taking part in a caravan heading to the US, arrive at the border crossing point with Mexico, in Ciudad Tecun Uman, Guatemala, on Oct. 19, 2018.
A Honduran migrant gets some food as a group of migrants traveling to the United States hitch a free ride in the back of a trailer truck flatbed to Teculutan, Guatemala, Oct. 17, 2018.
9/12 A Honduran migrant gets some food as a group of migrants traveling to the United States hitch a free ride in the back of a trailer truck flatbed to Teculutan, Guatemala, Oct. 17, 2018.
Honduran migrants pray at an improvised shelter in Chiquimula, Guatemala, Oct. 16, 2018.
10/12 Honduran migrants pray at an improvised shelter in Chiquimula, Guatemala, Oct. 16, 2018.
An elderly Honduran migrant woman talks with Guatemalan police who temporarily block the road to keep her and her caravan from advancing, in Esquipulas, Guatemala, Oct. 15, 2018.
11/12 An elderly Honduran migrant woman talks with Guatemalan police who temporarily block the road to keep her and her caravan from advancing, in Esquipulas, Guatemala, Oct. 15, 2018.
Hondurans march in a caravan of migrants moving toward the country's border with Guatemala in a desperate attempt to flee poverty and seek new lives in the United States, in Ocotepeque, Honduras, Oct. 15, 2018.
12/12 Hondurans march in a caravan of migrants moving toward the country's border with Guatemala in a desperate attempt to flee poverty and seek new lives in the United States, in Ocotepeque, Honduras, Oct. 15, 2018.
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The caravan and the election

Trump's often stark and unsubstantiated pronouncements on illegal immigration helped propel him to the Republican presidential nomination in 2016 and were credited with boosting Republican turnout in the general election, in which Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Reynolds said the president's anti-caravan rhetoric may mobilize core Republican voters once again this year, but argued that images of the caravan blanketing American news channels call into question Trump's warnings of a dire threat to U.S. security.

"It is worth noting that a lot of the images of the folks in the caravan are of women and young children who are fleeing violence. So it's not entirely clear to me that people aren't going to view them somewhat sympathetically, particularly after the crisis over the summer involving family separations at the [U.S.-Mexico] border."

The caravan, and Trump's statements about it, have received blanket coverage by some cable TV outlets and led many network news broadcasts in recent days, crowding out coverage of Democrats' favorite themes ahead of the November elections. The trend has not gone unnoticed by some progressive and Democratically-aligned commentators.

"The saturation coverage of this caravan, based on Trump's grotesque lies …is more grossly irresponsible than the panic-laced coverage of Ebola [cases in the United States] in 2014," tweeted Brian Beutler, editor-in-chief of Crooked Media, a news and opinion website.

Republicans, meanwhile, are eager to highlight a drama-filled real-time event tied to America's larger conversation about illegal immigration, an issue they believe puts Democrats on the defensive.

"You're going to choose between Republicans who will secure the border, versus Democrats who want to open the border," Texas Governor Greg Abbott said at the Cruz rally.

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