At a time of escalating conflict between Israel and the Iran-backed terrorist groups Hamas and Hezbollah, analysts say the Syrian government has been noticeably quiet to avoid getting drawn into the conflict.
The Syrian regime is one of Iran's closest allies and also has strong ties with Tehran's proxies in the region, including the Lebanese Hezbollah militant group.
Despite periodic strikes launched by Israel against targets inside Syria — including two this week alone on Damascus — the Syrian government has only condemned the strikes and taken no action.
Seth Frantzman, an adjunct fellow at The Foundation of Defense of Democracies, said the Syrian government's reticence to join Iran's threats against Israel "likely stems from the regime's sense that it has nothing to gain by escalation and much to lose."
He told VOA that with Syria's long-running civil war remaining unsettled, Damascus is still trying to find a way to return its forces to Turkish-occupied areas in northern Syria and to get the U.S. to leave eastern Syria and stop backing the rebel Syrian Democratic Forces.
"Therefore, the regime has enough problems on its hands," he said.
Experts say the Golan Heights is one region that could be the target of Iranian-backed groups that have presence in Syria. In late July, a village in the Israeli-controlled part of the Golan was targeted by a rocket attack, killing at least 12 people, mostly children. Israel and the United States blamed Hezbollah for the attack.
In August, Hezbollah launched more rocket attacks on the Golan – but the attacks were carried out from Lebanese territories under the Hezbollah control.
Frantzman said Hezbollah and Iranian-backed militias may want to threaten Israel from the Syrian part of the Golan, but the Assad government "would likely pretend it has plausible deniability in such an escalation," adding "the regime knows Israel will hold it responsible for any direct support for attacks, or even semblance of backing attacks."
For decades, Syria has shown it prefers the status quo with Israel, he said.
"It has been risk-averse and although it poses as a part of the 'resistance' against Israel, it has accepted it cannot defeat Israel since the 1970s," Frantzman said.
Ahmed Rahal, a former Syrian military general who defected from the army in 2012, said this policy of non-involvement by the Syrian government has remained in place since the Israel-Hamas war broke out in October 2023.
"Bashar al-Assad knows any activation of the Golan front could spell the end of his regime," he told VOA. "But the Assad regime doesn't have the ability to control Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed militias in Syria, so it has chosen to stay away."
Syria remains Hezbollah weapons route
Israeli officials have said that Iran continues to use Syria to traffic weapons to Hezbollah. Even this, experts say, represents a risk for the Syrian regime at this point of the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.
"Since Hezbollah has withdrawn most of its fighters from Syria to fight in Lebanon, it still needs someone to transport Iranian weapons, and that would be Maher, Assad's brother who heads the Fourth Division of the Syrian army," Rahal said.
Several Arab media outlets reported that among last week's Israeli strikes on Syria was one that hit Maher al-Assad's residence near Damascus.
"The Israel message to the Assads was clear: Do not deliver weapons to Hezbollah," Rahal said. "So it seems that under such Israeli threats, the Assad regime has been forced to distance itself from Iran in the context of this conflict."
