During Syria’s brutal 13-year civil war, the country was divided up in a multi-sided conflict between several armed factions whose ideologies, composition, and alliances were constantly shifting. Now, the rapid collapse of Bashar al-Assad's government has left both Syrians and foreign observers wondering who will fill the vacuum and what comes next.
The key players who will likely determine Syria’s future:
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
The most powerful faction, which now controls most of western Syria, is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, who used the nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the group has its origins in the al-Nusra Front, initially aligned with terrorist groups al-Qaida and the Islamic State.
Sharaa’s focus on local Syrian governance over global jihad led him to split from both groups by 2017 and merge with several other Islamist factions to form HTS.
The group has since rebranded as a more moderate and pragmatic organization that does not enforce strict sharia law and has promised to protect minority rights.
However, it is still designated as a terrorist group by multiple countries, including Turkey and the United States, and remains accused of ongoing human rights violations. HTS supported the Idlib-based Syrian Salvation Government led by Prime Minister Mohammed al-Bashir, which has now become the country’s de facto transitional government.
Southern Operations Room
To the south is a diverse coalition calling itself the Southern Operations Room, which includes both secular and Islamist factions as well as Druze militias. Some of these had previously fought against extremist rebel groups such as al-Nusra, and in 2018 many reconciled with the Syrian government, with some even integrating into the Syrian armed forces.
But as the recent HTS offensive in the north gained momentum, the southern rebels rejoined the fight against Assad and were the first to enter Damascus.
Syrian National Army
Still holding territory in the northwest is the Syrian National Army, or SNA. Having grown out of the loose coalition of rebel groups known as the Free Syrian Army early in the civil war, the SNA represents both Islamic and secular factions that are directly backed by Turkey and support the so-called Syrian Interim Government based in the town of Azaz.
While they have at times been both an ally and a rival to HTS, the SNA has consistently fought against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Syrian Democratic Forces
The SDF is the military force of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, which controls the region east of the Euphrates River. Led by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), it also includes Arab militias as well as minorities such as Assyrians and Armenians.
While the group’s secular democratic ideology and equal treatment of women has garnered international support, they have been accused by other rebel groups of collaborating with the Assad regime and are considered by Turkey to be a branch of the separatist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), who are designated as a terrorist group by multiple governments. The United States, however, directly supports the SDF as a key ally in the fight against Islamic State.
IS remnants and foreign forces
The Islamic State itself has been reduced to a fraction of its former power, holding only small pockets of territory in the southern desert. However, they continue to launch terrorist attacks throughout the country, with over 150 occurring in the first half of 2024.
In addition, foreign forces have also occupied parts of Syria. Turkey has deployed its own military alongside the SNA near its border, claiming the territory as a ‘safe zone’ while using it to launch attacks against the SDF. The United States maintains a military base and a surrounding deconfliction zone at Al-Tanf near the Jordanian and Iraqi borders with Syria. Russia has so far retained control of its naval port at Tartus and air base near Latakia, though their future may be in question. Satellite images Friday appeared to show Russian forces packing up and dismantling military equipment at key bases, suggesting that it may be preparing for a withdrawal.
And following the fall of Assad, Israel took control of a demilitarized buffer zone in Syria near the Golan Heights, which it already occupied, citing the need for increased security along the border until a deal with the new government can be reached.
With so many factors in play, Syria’s future is far from certain. The country’s people are hoping that agreements between the major factions will ensure a smooth transition and bring an end to the chaos.
