For the third time in less than three decades, Uzbekistan is asking citizens to vote on the country's constitution.
After becoming independent in 1991, the country held votes in 1995 and 2002 focused on changing the presidential term and creating a bicameral parliament. The latest ballot, set for Sunday, would introduce a new constitution.
VOA interviews with political and civil society leaders revealed a mixed outlook, with many citizens and observers suspecting ulterior motives, although some were encouraged by aspects of the proposed draft and called on the government to live up to its promises.
The constitutional commission said it received more than 220,000 proposals from citizens during the drafting of the proposed law. The Oliy Majlis, Uzbekistan's bicameral parliament, approved the draft last month, with members of the Legislative Chamber and Senate hailing it as "the people's constitution filled with unprecedented guarantees," especially for human rights.
"Why doubt a document that outlines more freedoms than ever?" asked Eldor Tulyakov, head of the Development Strategy Center in Tashkent. He rejected criticism that the referendum is reminiscent of orchestrated events staged during the rule of Uzbekistan's autocratic founding president, Islam Karimov.
"The parliament could have adopted it, but President Shavkat Mirziyoyev urged us to hold a referendum – let our people choose," Tulyakov said.
He admitted that Uzbekistan faces systemic problems but asserted those should not stop the nation from renewing its basic law.
Much of the debate on social media centers on an extension of the presidential term from five to seven years, which many suspect will pave the way for Mirziyoyev, currently serving his second and constitutionally final term, to run again.
Tulyakov, whose center monitors reforms undertaken by Mirziyoyev, told VOA that "the constitutional opportunities" for the president to nullify his previous terms were not yet on the agenda.
"No such discussions have taken place," Tulyakov said, "because the priority is to continue the reforms, to enshrine democratic values and strengthen the legal foundation. We are not changing course. This new constitution must guide us forward."
Lawmakers have been characteristically silent on what will come next, but several sources in Tashkent indicated to VOA that Uzbekistan could be heading toward snap elections later this year, with Mirziyoyev seeking a fresh term under the new constitution.
Central Asia recently saw a similar move in Kazakhstan, which amended its constitution in March 2022 and gave President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev a fresh seven-year term. While Kazakhstan's new constitution allows only one presidential term, the Uzbek one permits two, meaning that Mirziyoyev could remain president for 14 more years.
Bobur Malikov, justice minister when Uzbekistan adopted its first constitution in 1992, said he saw Sunday's referendum as "the pretext to keep Mirziyoyev in power for as long as possible."
"Why else change the constitution, which already offers democratic guarantees and freedoms? Yes, it was mainly written by Karimov, but it's substantially based on Western models. Uzbekistan can be a sovereign, secular and social state based on the current constitution," he said, citing the hundreds of laws adopted over the past three decades.
"In a strong state with a robust nation, it is never this easy to renew or even amend the basic law. So, Uzbekistan going through such change under each leadership reveals how fragile the system is and how weak is society," said Malikov, who also served as first ambassador to the U.S. but never returned to Uzbekistan, fearing persecution for dissenting against Karimov.
Uzbek activists and critics such as Malikov emphasize that if Uzbekistan needs anything, it is vigorous political opposition to keep the government in check. But since the current establishment does not brook challenge, they say, "New Uzbekistan" propaganda is further evidence of continued autocracy.
For human rights activist and documentary maker Khoorshid Alimardonov, the underlying problem is the absence of rule of law. "What is the point of having well-written documents that don't work in reality?" he asked.
He told VOA that Uzbekistan's citizens want to live in a system that does not punish them for their opinions. "We want independent courts, and not just on paper," he said. "Our freedom of speech as well as media freedom must be tolerated. Human rights must be respected by everyone and, most importantly, by the authorities."
Uzbek blogger Aqida Khanum, a promoter of social justice and compassion, detects some positive public reaction to the draft document.
"I don't watch TV and I'm yet to check out the text myself," she told VOA. "But I've been hearing that specialists are quite happy about specific and relevant parts of the new constitution, such as the articles on the protection of the environment, health and education."
Another blogger, lawyer Zafarbek Solijonov, collaborated with the constitutional commission and is content that his proposals were considered.
"But I've long argued that our constitution should be as succinct as possible," he told VOA. Solijonov said he thought the current draft, bursting with more than 150 articles, was too long.
"We want a constitution that is easily understood and applied by the citizens," he said. "Along with the constitutional court, our parliament must be resilient enough to uphold the constitution's protections of legal rights."
The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which has observed nine elections in Uzbekistan and judged none of them to be free or fair, has sent 10 international experts and 14 long-term observers this time. They began their work on April 5.
The OSCE's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) said the mission "will assess the referendum for its compliance with OSCE commitments and other international obligations and standards, as well as with national legislation."
Among other things, ODIHR is monitoring the referendum campaign and media coverage.
