The United States this week moved to significantly strengthen its alliances in the Indo-Pacific amid a perceived security threat from China, including a major upgrade of the U.S. military command in Japan.
Washington and Tokyo insist the changes are purely defensive, but questions remain about the military readiness of the United States and its allies if conflict erupts.
The United States has around 55,000 troops stationed in Japan, with most of them deployed in the southern Okinawan islands. The Kadena Air Base outside the Okinawan capital, Naha, is America’s largest in the Pacific region.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin held so-called “2+2” talks with their Japanese counterparts in Tokyo on Sunday and announced a major shift in defense relations.
“The United States will upgrade the U.S. Forces Japan to a joint force headquarters with expanded missions and operational responsibilities. This will be the most significant change to U.S. Forces Japan since its creation and one of the strongest improvements in our military ties with Japan in 70 years,” Austin told reporters.
“Our decision to move in this direction is not based upon any threat from China. It's based on our desire and our ability to work closer together and to be more effective,” he said.
The upgraded military command is expected to be led by a three-star general, with the possibility of a four-star general in future leadership.
Analysts said it marked a profound change in the U.S. approach to its forces in Japan.
“That means the Americans are serious. The Americans are really serious about fighting a war [alongside] Japan. Against whom? I don't know. Whoever wants to change the status quo by force, we may have to fight,” Kunihiko Miyake, president of the Tokyo-based Foreign Policy Institute, told VOA.
The move is designed to complement Japan's new Joint Operations Command, which is due to launch in March 2025.
Grant Newsham, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Center for Security Policy, welcomed the change.
“It's a good first step … toward getting the Americans and the Japanese in a position where they can actually fight together," he told VOA. “But what remains to be seen — and this is important — is how much authority will it have? What units will be assigned to it? What responsibility will it have in the event of a contingency?”
The U.S. and Japan also agreed to numerous other defense measures, including joint missile development and the possible deployment of American troops alongside Japanese forces in outlying islands.
Discussions also focused on so-called U.S. "extended deterrence" — whether Washington would be willing to use its nuclear weapons to defend Japan.
Japanese capabilities
Tokyo last year announced plans to double its defense spending to 2% of its gross domestic product by 2027.
Newsham said the Japanese military needs huge investment in recruitment, weapons and logistics.
“So, there's a number of practical things that Japan needs to do to be ready to fight a war. And then you ask yourself, ‘Well, how are you going to actually link up with the Americans to fight? Have you done the necessary planning and training so that you can just fall right in and deal with a real-world contingency?’” he said.
There are fears that such a contingency is dangerously close. The U.S. and Japan on Sunday labeled China the “greatest strategic challenge” facing the region, amid Beijing’s rapid military buildup in the disputed South China Sea and ongoing military exercises around Taiwan.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has pledged to reunify the island with China, and there is speculation he is planning to do so by force.
‘Lattice’ of alliances
In such a volatile region, U.S. officials say Washington is seeking to interconnect its regional alliances with the United States and each other, creating a "lattice" framework to protect Indo-Pacific security.
There are limits to such cooperation, Miyake said.
“Of course, we cannot have a NATO-type collective alliance system, because we have a different historical background. But what we needed to have is multilayered security arrangements.”
The Philippines is emerging as a key U.S partner in the region. Visiting Manila Tuesday alongside Austin, Blinken announced a $500 million military aid package for Manila, describing it as a “once-in-a-generation investment to help modernize the Filipino armed forces and coast guard.”
The "Quad" grouping of the United States, Japan, India and Australia provides another layer of regional security. Foreign ministers of those nations met in Tokyo on Monday, a day after the U.S.-Japan bilateral meetings, and issued a joint statement calling for a “free and open” Pacific.
The AUKUS alliance between the U.S., Australia and the United Kingdom offers further scope for security coordination in the Indo-Pacific.
But effective military alliances require more than agreements on paper, Newsham said.
“For this so-called latticework of a range of alliances and agreements that the Americans have tried to put together — well, with whom can they do a real-world short notice operation? That means if you had to go out and really do something for real, like fight, who could they do it with? And that is a very, very short list. It's pretty much got nobody on it, except for the United States Navy and the Japanese navy,” he said.
China checkmated?
Speaking to ABC News on July 6, U.S. President Joe Biden said the network of alliances Washington had built in the Indo-Pacific region were "checkmating" China. Newsham questioned that assertion.
“Look at Chinese operations around Taiwan. These are nonstop, almost every day, and they're getting closer and closer to Taiwan. They’re surrounding Taiwan. And you might ask the Taiwanese if they think the Chinese are checkmated,” Newsham said.
“Additionally, the Chinese and the Russians are doing more together militarily than they ever have, circumnavigating Japan, getting close to Alaska with nuclear-capable bombers. Well, the Chinese aren't showing any sign of having been checkmated. Their military buildup continues unabated,” he said.
But the value of U.S. regional alliances — especially that with Japan — shouldn’t be underestimated, said Miyake.
“Allies are the people or the countries who fight for you and bleed for you. Who wants to fight against the Americans for the Chinese? I don't know. Even the Russians don't want to do that,” Miyake said.
Beijing denies that it poses a threat to Indo-Pacific security. A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson urged the U.S. and Japan to abandon what it called a "Cold War mentality," adding that the $500 million of U.S. military aid for the Philippines would increase insecurity.
Russia on Wednesday said the U.S. and Japan appeared to be preparing “for a large-scale armed conflict in the Asia-Pacific region.” Russian Foreign Ministry deputy spokesperson Andrei Nastasin told reporters that Moscow was consulting with China and North Korea on how best to respond.
