As North Korea's nuclear and missile programs become increasingly sophisticated, U.S.-based experts see the United States shifting the focus of its diplomacy from the pursuit of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula to one of deterrence.
Officially, the U.S. State Department insists that denuclearization remains the primary goal of the United States and South Korea, a policy that is unlikely to change regardless of the outcome of the November U.S. presidential election.
But in a series of email interviews with VOA Korean, more than half a dozen experts said they saw scant hope that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un could be persuaded to give up his growing nuclear arsenal and that the U.S. must concentrate instead on seeing that it is never used.
"I think, in practical terms, most Americans believe we have little choice at this point but to prioritize deterrence, at least for the foreseeable future," said Michael O'Hanlon, director of foreign policy research at the Brookings Institution in Washington, in an email to VOA Korean this week.
Robert Peters, research fellow for nuclear deterrence and missile defense at the Heritage Foundation, told VOA Korean via email that American politicians on both sides of the political spectrum are questioning whether North Korea would even consider abandoning its nuclear weapons.
"I think there is little appetite in either political party to seek denuclearization with North Korea, given the failures of the late 2010s," Peters said, referring to the collapse of the nuclear talks between former U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who met three times in 2018 and 2019.
"I think all sides recognize that Kim will not give up nuclear weapons at any price."
Shifting priorities
Negotiations over North Korea's nuclear program between Washington and Pyongyang have been nearly nonexistent since October 2019.
Peters added, "Bottom line — without question, the ground has shifted regarding how we think about the North Korean nuclear threat."
Gary Samore, former White House coordinator for arms control and weapons of mass destruction during the Obama administration, said Washington's shift in direction was inevitable.
"The U.S. government has been forced to place more emphasis on deterrence over denuclearization because Kim Jong Un has shown no willingness to negotiate a nuclear deal or even meet with the U.S. to discuss denuclearization," Samore told VOA Korean via email.
"Instead, North Korea has continued to advance its nuclear and missile program, and the U.S. has responded by strengthening military cooperation with the ROK and Japan, including joint efforts to enhance extended deterrence."
ROK stands for Republic of Korea, the official name of South Korea.
Denuclearization of North Korea is now viewed in Washington as a "mission impossible," said Bruce Bennett, a senior defense analyst at the RAND Corporation.
"I think it is fair to say that the U.S. government is now more focused on deterrence, which is largely succeeding, than on denuclearization," Bennett told VOA Korean via email.
"This change does not mean that the U.S. and ROK have abandoned trying to negotiate for denuclearization, which North Korea steadfastly refuses to do, but rather that our governments no longer see denuclearization as a viable solution to the North Korean nuclear weapon threat."
Markus Garlauskas, director of the Indo-Pacific Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council, told VOA Korean via email it was "fully appropriate" that Washington has been paying more attention in recent years to deterring North Korean aggression than attempting to negotiate denuclearization.
"I have long argued that Kim Jong Un does not intend to give up his nuclear weapons, that the nuclear weapons and missile capabilities of North Korea have grown and will continue to grow, meaning that we in the United States and its allies must adjust our strategy and policy accordingly," he said.
"We should not let hopes of negotiations get in the way of making tough decisions to improve deterrence," added Garlauskas, who served as the U.S. national intelligence officer for North Korea from 2014 to 2020.
He stressed, however, that "accepting the reality that North Korea is nuclear-armed and will remain so while under Kim Jong Un's leadership" does not mean that the U.S. should or would give up denuclearization as a goal.
"Our principled stand can and should remain that North Korea must comply with U.N. Security Council resolutions by halting its nuclear and ballistic missile programs and relinquishing its nuclear weapons, and I do think there is still broad agreement on that in Washington," Garlauskas said.
Commitment to denuclearization
Sydney Seiler, who until last year was the national intelligence officer for North Korea on the U.S. National Intelligence Council, said the U.S. should keep denuclearization as a priority, adding that "denuclearization and deterrence are not mutually exclusive."
"We have a responsibility on a day-by-day basis to deter provocative actions, coercion, blackmail and even possible invasion by North Korea and have been doing so for the last 70 years of armistice," said Seiler, who is now a senior adviser on Korean affairs at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"Successfully ensuring deterrence does not mean abandoning the goal of the denuclearization of North Korea," he told VOA Korean via email.
Robert Abrams, a retired U.S. Army four-star general who served as commander of U.S. Forces Korea from 2018 to 2021, emphasized that a strategy of deterrence should be clearly differentiated from the goal of denuclearization.
"The U.S. strategic deterrent was never about stopping the North Korean regime from developing their own nukes," Abrams told VOA Korean in an August 20 email.
"Sanctions and diplomatic efforts were intended to stop North Korea's nuclear program. The strategic deterrent is to deter North Korea from ever using nuclear weapons, and that has obviously been very successful."
Officially, Washington reiterates that denuclearization of North Korea remains a goal of the U.S.-South Korea alliance.
"The United States and the ROK continue to pursue the shared objective of the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," a State Department spokesperson told VOA Korean via email this week. "We believe that the only effective way to reduce nuclear threats on the peninsula is by curbing the proliferation of nuclear weapons."
But the spokesperson stressed that deterrence was also a crucial element of U.S. policy toward North Korea.
"At the same time, the United States and the ROK will continue working together to strengthen extended deterrence in the face of increasingly aggressive DPRK rhetoric about its nuclear weapons program," the spokesperson said.
He added that the 16-month-old Washington Declaration "reinforces the fact that any nuclear attack by [North Korea] against [South Korea] will be met with a swift, overwhelming and decisive response from the United States."
In April 2023, U.S. President Joe Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol adopted the Washington Declaration, which outlines a series of measures to deter North Korea's nuclear weapons use.
