Of the nations that committed themselves to renewed efforts to fight climate change during last year's U.N. Climate Change Conference, or COP26, only a small fraction of them have followed through on their pledges, according to a report issued by the United Nations on Wednesday.
Each of the 193 countries involved in COP26 had produced plans for lowering emissions of greenhouse gases, which trap heat in the atmosphere. Presented with evidence that their existing plans were insufficient to prevent the planet from warming by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels — the point at which scientists believe catastrophic climate changes become inevitable — the participants promised to revise them.
The report released Wednesday, which collected those action plans, found that of the 193 participants, only 24 had taken steps to increase their efforts at reducing emissions.
"At the U.N. Climate Change Conference in Glasgow [Scotland] last year, all countries agreed to revisit and strengthen their climate plans," Simon Stiell, executive secretary of U.N. Climate Change, said in a statement released to the media. "The fact that only 24 new or updated climate plans were submitted since COP26 is disappointing. Government decisions and actions must reflect the level of urgency, the gravity of the threats we are facing, and the shortness of the time we have remaining to avoid the devastating consequences of runaway climate change."
COP27 on the horizon
The announcement comes less than two weeks before the next U.N. Climate Change Conference, COP27, is scheduled to begin in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt.
Cherelle Blazer, senior director of the Sierra Club's International Climate and Policy Campaign, told VOA that the U.N.'s analysis doesn't come as a surprise to the activists tracking various countries' commitments.
"It's accurate, and I'm really glad that ahead of the conference, they're letting people know exactly where we are, and the fact that we need to be doing better, in really clear terms. We need to be trying to stay on track and understanding exactly what's at stake," Blazer said.
Some good news
While the overall findings of the report might be discouraging, there is some evidence that at least limited progress is being made.
While an assessment of current plans by U.N. Climate Change found that emissions would rise 13.7% by 2030 and would continue to rise after that, new commitments have changed the organization's analysis. If countries keep their promises, emissions will rise by only 10.6% between now and 2030 and will begin to decline after that, though not at the rate scientists believe is necessary.
"The downward trend in emissions expected by 2030 shows that nations have made some progress this year," Stiell said. "But the science is clear, and so are our climate goals under the Paris Agreement. We are still nowhere near the scale and pace of emissions reductions required to put us on track toward a 1.5-degree Celsius world. To keep this goal alive, national governments need to strengthen their climate action plans now and implement them in the next eight years."
The report warns that without significant changes, the planet will greatly exceed the 1.5-degree increase, noting that in the next century, temperatures could be between 2.1 and 2.9 degrees higher.
'Code red moment'
Climate activists told VOA they are hopeful that the new report will add a sense of urgency to the discussions at COP27.
"The main takeaway is that we're not winning. We're not going to be hitting any of our temperature and emissions goals," said Seth Laxman, a climate campaigner with Greenpeace USA.
"It's great that so many countries are creating these long-term low-emissions development strategies. … But ultimately, these plans mean nothing unless they are implemented in full and on time," he said. "We need actual accountability measures that can turn these goals into reality. And we also need the plans to become more ambitious, both in speed and scale.
"We're in a code red moment," Laxman said. "It's important to remember that the more we do now, the more impact it will have. Early emissions reductions mean that there will be less work to do in the future. But the longer that we delay, the more we'll have to compensate."
For their part, U.N. officials say they are confident that the representatives convening for COP27 will understand the urgency of the moment.
"COP27 will be the world's watershed moment on climate action," said Sameh Shoukry, Egyptian minister of foreign affairs and president-designate of COP27.
"The report from U.N. Climate Change and before that from the IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] are a timely reminder for all of us. Raising ambition and urgent implementation is indispensable for addressing the climate crisis," Shoukry said in a statement. "This includes cutting and removing emissions faster and at wider scope of economic sectors, to protect us from more severe adverse climate impacts and devastating loss and damage."
