The war in Ukraine remains high on the agenda as European Union leaders meet Thursday and Friday in Brussels, just days after the Wagner group’s short-lived revolt in Russia. Other hot-button issues to be discussed include European defense, relations with China, and immigration.
Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin’s uprising last weekend has added a new element of instability for the EU when it comes to the war in Ukraine — with Eastern European countries especially worried about Wagner mercenaries moving to nearby Belarus.
The Brussels summit also comes ahead of a key NATO summit in Vilnius next month. Kyiv is pushing for a so-called “political” invitation to join the transatlantic alliance. EU member Sweden also hopes to join NATO as early as July.
At a meeting earlier this week of EU foreign ministers, the bloc’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said the revolt in Russia makes Europe’s support for Ukraine even more important.
"Because what has happened this weekend shows that the war against Ukraine is cracking Russian power and affecting its political system," he said.
EU member states agreed last week to strengthen sanctions against Russia, including a measure that would make it possible to punish countries that help Moscow to avoid them.
The Kremlin says it will retaliate with more travel bans.
“The EU has really held together on this,” said Judy Dempsey, the editor of the Strategic Europe blog for the Carnegie Europe policy institute. “The EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, a German, has been steadfast in her support — political, financial, social support — for Ukraine and particularly for the President Zelenskyy.”
The Ukraine war also has revived longstanding calls, especially by France, to beef up the EU’s own defense capabilities, including by jointly procuring military supplies. That will also be on the table in Brussels.
A new Munich Security Conference report criticizes the EU’s defense capacity and cooperation, faulting a lack of leadership by countries like France and Germany.
Analyst Dempsey is also critical.
“There’s an awareness by some of the European member states that Europe has to really boost its capabilities and security capabilities as well — to actually defend their own territories and backyards, but the record on that is miserable,” she said.
Another tricky summit topic: relations with China, which both Brussels and Washington say they want to “de-risk” without breaking ties.
China’s new Premier Li Qiang visited European capitals this month amid EU concerns of economic dependence on Beijing, including for its green energy transition.
“There’s no doubt that this charm offensive the Chinese are now doing in Europe is all about dividing the Americans from the Europeans, dividing the Europeans among themselves,” said analyst Dempsey.
There’s another divisive issue — migration. Leaders at the Brussels summit will discuss expanding controversial deals with countries like Tunisia to stem migration. Critics say that won't fix the problem. Backdropping the discussions is the sinking of a migrant vessel off Greece earlier this month that killed hundreds of people.
