The campaign for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination has been going on for more than a year, and the party’s convention is still six months away. But on Monday, the candidates will get their first chance to officially secure some of the delegates who will eventually vote on the Republican nominee.
In Iowa, Republican caucus voters are expected to brave arctic cold and biting winds to gather at about 1,670 designated sites across the state, where they will “caucus” to determine which candidate secures the most votes and therefore the 40 available delegates.
They will be choosing from among the front-runner, former President Donald Trump, and a slate of challengers, including former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy. Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie was in the race until late Wednesday, when he announced the suspension of his campaign.
The Iowa caucuses are a storied element of U.S. presidential elections, traditionally presenting an early test of candidates’ organizational abilities and retail politicking skills. Though the state has not always chosen the eventual winner of either party’s nomination, it serves to winnow the field as candidates often drop out of the race between the caucuses and the primary election in New Hampshire, which has traditionally followed soon afterward.
“The critical thing about Iowa is that because it's first, it tends to frame the debate,” Michael Lewis-Beck, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Iowa, told VOA.
“If you do well in Iowa, that gives you a leg up when you go into New Hampshire. And if you do well in Iowa and New Hampshire, that's more momentum,” he said. “It's not foolproof — it doesn't mean you'll be your party's nominee — but it's a big deal.”
High-commitment voters
The Iowa caucuses are challenging for most candidates for a number of reasons, but the most obvious is the level of commitment it demands of voters.
Unlike a primary election, which allows voters to arrive at a polling station at a time of their choosing on Election Day — or even to vote in advance via absentee ballot — the caucus system requires voters to assemble at specified sites around the state at a specific time on a weeknight in the middle of winter.
After voters are checked in and their status as registered Republicans is verified, participants elect a chairperson and a secretary to run the meeting and recite the Pledge of Allegiance. Then, caucus participants will hear speeches from representatives of each of the candidates before being issued ballots to fill out by hand.
The ballots are then counted, with observers from each campaign on hand to watch, and the results are announced.
In smaller caucus sites, the process can be completed in an hour or two. But at larger sites, where the number of voters may reach into the thousands, the caucus may take hours longer.
Bucking tradition
Because of the demands the system places on voters, politicians competing in Iowa have traditionally placed a premium on establishing large campaign organizations within the state and giving as many voters as possible the chance to interact with them firsthand. Candidates frequently pledge to visit all 99 of the state’s counties during the course of their campaigns.
However, as in so much of his political career, Trump has largely charted his own course in Iowa.
“In 2016, Donald Trump didn't win the caucuses, but he finished second, and he didn't have a real strong presence in Iowa in terms of his actually being here,” Christopher Larimer, a professor of political science at the University of Northern Iowa, told VOA.
“This cycle, he's been in the state more frequently, but my understanding is that the organizations of Haley and DeSantis are stronger, and they have been in the state constantly,” Larimer said.
Commanding lead
Trump’s strategy so far appears to be paying off, as he leads by a large margin in virtually all polls. He has appeared at campaign events only a few dozen times, mostly for large rallies near urban centers. He has mostly been relying on a team of surrogates, who have been driving get-out-the-vote efforts and caucus training on his behalf.
With just days to go before Monday’s caucuses, the former president retains a commanding lead in the available polling, sometimes registering well over 50% among Iowa voters. Neither of his closest competitors, Haley and DeSantis, has been able to consolidate more than 20% of the vote, and they appear to be locked in a contest for second place. Ramaswamy and Christie are, in most polls, considerably further behind.
“I think that there's always that question: How much does grassroots politics, retail politics, still matter?” Larimer said. “Or should we just treat Trump differently? Because he's such a different candidate than we've ever seen.”
Weather a factor
One element that could complicate Monday’s result is the extreme weather Iowans are expected to encounter as they make their way to the caucus sites. The state woke up to 30 centimeters of fresh snow on Wednesday, with more expected Thursday and into the weekend. At the same time, temperatures are expected to plunge sharply, generating potentially dangerous conditions.
Roads may be difficult to navigate, and elderly voters in particular might be nervous about navigating icy streets and sidewalks on their way to caucus sites.
“It's going to be rough,” Lewis-Beck said. “This will really be an organizational challenge for the campaigners and their staffs.”
Iowans are used to winter weather, he said, but extreme conditions will still take a toll.
“Local folks, of course, they'll know how to get to City Hall or wherever they're going to go, but I would say turnout is going to be lower,” he said.
No Democratic contest
While in the past, Republicans and Democrats have caucused on the same night, this year will be different. The national Democratic Party has shaken up its schedule of nominating contests, removing Iowa from the first position.
After a disastrous failed effort to tally the caucus results in 2020, the state Democratic Party has also changed the structure of its voting, doing away with in-person meetings in favor of a mail-in system. Iowa Democrats have been eligible to return mail-in ballots since November.
The Democratic results will be announced on March 5, known as “Super Tuesday,” when 15 other states will also be voting.
