The Manhattan district attorney's indictment of Donald Trump on 34 felony charges and the prospect of more charges to come have injected more uncertainty into the November 2024 race for the White House.
Trump, who has declared himself a candidate for next year's Republican presidential nomination, was formally charged this week with falsifying New York business records to conceal his role in paying hush money to an adult film actress before the 2016 election. He is also facing potential charges in at least three other cases.
Never before in American history have criminal charges been brought against a former president, much less one who is attempting another run. According to the most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, even with the indictment Trump is leading the Republican primary field.
Should Trump become the nominee, he will likely face President Joe Biden. Biden won over Trump in 2020.
In the short term, Trump may be benefiting from the controversy. One of the first polls done after the indictment showed Trump surging to his largest-ever lead over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, 57% to 31% among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. As recently as February, DeSantis was narrowly ahead of Trump by 45% to 41%.
Trump is also leveraging his grievance over the case to rake in funds, $12 million in just one week since the indictment's announcement, according to his campaign.
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However, pollsters say the indictment is unlikely to sway the crucial independent voters that Trump will need in the general election.
"All the polling basically shows [is] a very divided America. You have one America that is very much in favor of the indictment, believes that Trump has been lawless, has not followed the rules," said Clifford Young, president for U.S. public affairs at Ipsos. "On the flip side, there's another America, red America, Republican America, that thinks it's completely, utterly, politically motivated."
Impact on Republican primary
Since the indictment, Trump has widened his lead over other Republican contenders. According to the Reuters/Ipsos poll, 48% of self-described Republicans said they wanted Trump to be their party's presidential nominee, up from 44% in a March 14-20 poll.
DeSantis, Trump's closest rival, was backed by 19%, down from 30% last month. Other likely rivals, including former Vice President Mike Pence and Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina and former ambassador to the United Nations, polled in the single digits.
Aside from former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, those eyeing the Republican nomination have been rushing to defend Trump from the indictment.
"They can't be critical of the former president because they clearly want his supporters to go with them in the event that Donald Trump can't or will not run," political consultant Julie Roginsky told VOA.
Roginsky noted the risk for Republican challengers who voice support while silently hoping Trump will bow out.
"Then essentially they're anointing him as the next nominee, if they don't all get together and try to take him down based on these issues," she said.
Should Trump become bogged down by more legal woes, including those related to allegations of trying to overturn his 2020 election defeat in the state of Georgia, and mishandling classified documents at his Florida home after leaving office, more Republican candidates would likely run, said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
But if he survives them, his opponents will push for a smaller field, Sabato told VOA. "It's the only way you could stop him, if you consolidate support behind one or two candidates."
Trump vs. Biden
If Trump becomes the Republican nominee, that's good news for Biden's reelection prospects because it would galvanize the Democratic base and most independent voters, Sabato said.
"He's going to generate those votes because they can't stand the alternative."
Even if he is not the nominee, Trump's influence over the Republican base will force other potential nominees to embrace him, possibly making it easier for Biden to beat him or her, Sabato added.
Trump could also split the Republican vote by refusing to support the nominee. In a February radio interview, Trump said that if he were not the party's pick, his support "would have to depend on who the nominee was."
Biden has not officially announced that he is running for reelection and will likely do so at a time when he does not have to share the political spotlight with Trump, whom he beat in 2020.
"It's not like anybody's gearing up, anybody of consequence is gearing up to run against him. So, he can take his time and doesn't have to start incurring any expenses of an official campaign at the moment," Roginsky said.
What if Trump wins?
Trump can be found guilty and still win the election, in which case the country would have a convicted felon as its commander in chief.
"There's nothing in the Constitution that precludes someone who has been convicted of a crime from being elected president," said Richard Pierce, a law professor at George Washington University.
There are only three constitutional requirements for the presidency: he or she must be at least 35 years of age, be a natural-born citizen and have lived in the U.S. for at least 14 years.
Experts say if convicted on the New York charges, Trump is unlikely to spend any time behind bars as judges rarely sentence first-time offenders to jail for falsifying business records.
However, other criminal investigations, including the one on his role in the efforts to overturn the 2020 election result, may lead to more serious charges and potential imprisonment.
That would be a "truly unprecedented situation," Pierce told VOA.
"I don't know how one could be effective as president of the United States while being in a jail cell," he said. "But there is nothing in the Constitution that would keep somebody from being president of the United States and being incarcerated at the same time."
But a conviction could bar Trump from voting for himself. Florida, where he is registered to vote, is one of 11 states with the most restrictive laws regarding voting while incarcerated.
