Hours after Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin rebelled against his country's top military leaders, his private army's biggest client in Africa panicked, turning for help to his foe in the West.
Officials from Central African Republic, where some 1,500 of Prigozhin's Wagner Group mercenaries were stationed, wrote a letter that day, requesting to "rapidly" arrange a meeting with a private U.S. security firm to discuss collaboration.
Dated June 23, 2023, the day Prigozhin launched the armed rebellion, the letter sparked a series of meetings, culminating in a deal with the central African nation and Bancroft Global Development. That sparked backlash from Russian mercenaries, according to a dozen diplomats, locals, and analysts.
The tensions in Central African Republic are a window into a larger battle playing out across the continent as Moscow and Washington vie for influence.
The Russian mercenaries — using success in staving off rebels in this impoverished nation as a model for expansion — have long been accused by locals and rights groups of stripping natural resources such as minerals and timber and are linked to the torture and death of civilians. In the wake of Prigozhin's rebellion and suspicious death in a plane crash, the Russians are recalibrating their Africa operations. The United States, which has been largely disengaged from the region for years, is attempting to maintain a presence and stymie Russian gains as it pushes African countries to distance themselves from the mercenaries.
U.S. officials blame Russia for anti-American sentiment in the region and say they're trying to shift the narrative.
"If the U.S. can't regain a foothold, it could give Russia greater economic and political leverage," said Samuel Ramani of the Royal United Services Institute, a defense and security think tank. "If Russia loses Central African Republic, its flagship model on the continent, there could be a domino effect in other countries."
Russia's influence
In recent years, Russia has emerged as the security partner of choice for a growing number of governments in the region, displacing traditional allies such as France and the U.S.
Moscow expanded its military cooperation by using mercenaries like Wagner, which since around 2017 has operated in at least half a dozen countries by protecting African leaders and in some cases helping fight rebels and extremists.
They're also plagued by their human rights record. Two years ago in Mali, Wagner and the army were accused of executing about 300 men — some suspected of being Islamist extremists, but most civilians — in what Human Rights Watch called the worst single atrocity reported in the country's decade-long armed conflict. And in Central African Republic, mercenaries train the army on torture tactics, including how to tburn people alive, according to watchdog The Sentry.
Central African Republic
Central African Republic was one of the first places the mercenaries entered. The country has been in conflict since 2013, when predominantly Muslim rebels seized power and forced the president from office. Six of the 14 armed groups that signed a 2019 peace deal later left the agreement. Locals and the government credited Wagner with fighting back rebels who tried to overtake Bangui, the capital, in 2021. The Russians soon expanded to Burkina Faso and Niger, and have ambitions for further growth.
Russia is refurbishing a military base some 80 kilometers from Bangui. Alexander Bikantov, Russia's ambassador to Central African Republic, said the base will improve the country's security.
Fidele Gouandjika, adviser to President Faustin-Archange Touadera, said the base aims to have 10,000 fighters by 2030 to engage with more African nations.
Touadera's office didn't reply to written requests for comment for this story. His adviser to the country's spy agency declined to be interviewed.
Pressure from United States
The U.S. had been pushing Central African Republic to find an alternative to Wagner for years. A more assertive U.S. approach came as it faced new setbacks and tried to rework agreements in the region. Its troops left Chad and Niger, where they were no longer welcome.
Still, the State Department said in a statement this year that it wasn't involved in the decision to establish Bancroft Global Development's presence in Central African Republic.
But Washington could deny such contracts if it wanted, said Sean McFate, a former contractor in Africa and author of "The New Rules of War."
The U.S. has used private military companies to reduce American "boots on the ground" in Africa, McFate said, and companies like Bancroft have to play by Washington's rules if they want future government work.
In response to AP questions, the U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity said it uses private contractors in Africa to help countries operate more effectively, with U.S. government oversight to ensure accountability. The official said the State Department has overseen Bancroft's work in Somalia but not Central African Republic or elsewhere.
Bancroft's background
Washington-based Bancroft is a nonprofit working in nine countries — five in Africa. Its involvement in Central African Republic has been shrouded in secrecy since signs emerged of its presence last fall.
During an AP visit months later, rumors swirled about Bancroft's activities, fueling speculation the U.S was bringing its own Wagner to oust Russia.
But according to Bancroft founder Michael Stock, the group entered at Bangui's behest.
Stock received the letter from the presidency within a day of Prigozhin's mutiny, and the two signed a deal in September, he said.
Fewer than 30 Bancroft personnel work there, Stock said, helping Central African Republic with intelligence systems, interagency cooperation and law enforcement.
Bancroft has invested some $1.4 million there, Stock said.
Much of Bancroft's funding has come from U.S. and United Nations grants. From 2018 to 2020, it received more than $43 million from the U.S., according to audits required as part of tax forms.
Amal Ali, a former U.S. intelligence analyst, is among critics who say that despite its yearslong presence in Somalia, Bancroft hasn't contributed to any eradication of terrorism.
Stock dismissed such comments as uninformed and said the Somali and U.S. governments "agree Bancroft has done a great deal to damaging illegal armed groups and developing the capacity of the government to perform its national defense functions professionally."
Backlash on the ground
Rights groups say a lack of transparency about Bancroft's operations has fostered an atmosphere of distrust in a country already rampant with armed actors. Wagner, a U.N. peacekeeping mission and Rwandan troops are all on the ground to try to quell violence.
"Operating in a vague and nontransparent way in the Central African Republic only leads to suspicion," said Lewis Mudge, of Human Rights Watch.
Stock defended Bancroft's work and policies. "It is perfectly normal for a government not to publicize how it is defending the people and the state," he told AP.
Unclear future
As the U.S. and Russia jockey for power, African governments say they want to make their own choices.
Central African Republic officials approached Bancroft, which shows that these governments haven't become Russian puppets, said Jack Margolin, an expert on private military companies.
But, he added, Russia's reaction to Bancroft could hurt Moscow's standing with other nations.
After Prigozhin's death, Russia moved quickly to take control of Wagner's assets, and the defense ministry told countries where Wagner operated that it would take over. The country and its military intelligence arm have taken a more direct role in Africa operations, deploying more official detachments from its army.
In Central African Republic, it's unclear how much sway the Russian state has with the mercenaries, who are beloved by many. For most people here, there's little interest in squabbles among foreign nations.
"There are problems between the Americans and Russians, but that doesn't matter to us," said Jean Louis Yet, who works at Bangui's market. "We are here working, trying our best to make a living. All we want is security."
