Thailand’s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra kicks off a four-day trip to China on Wednesday that is expected to focus on economic and trade ties. During the visit, which will include a meeting with China’s leader Xi Jinping, analysts say the prime minister will also seek Beijing’s help in boosting Chinese tourists’ confidence in traveling to Thailand.
Paetongtarn's trip comes amid growing concerns among Chinese tourists about the risks of traveling to Thailand. In January a television actor from China, Wang Xing, was abducted from the Southeast Asian country and forced to work in a scam center in neighboring Myanmar.
“China is pretty concerned about what’s going on in Thailand, especially the cyber scam centers, so the Thai Prime Minister’s visit is to assure the Chinese that the Thais are doing whatever they can to deal with the scam center [issue],” said Rahman Yaacob, a research fellow at the Lowy Institute’s Southeast Asia program.
In recent weeks, Thai and Chinese law enforcement joined forces publicly to crack down on the dozens of cyber scam operations dotting the Chinese-Thai-and-Myanmar border, including the arrest of a man suspected of involvement in the abduction of the Chinese artist Wang Xing.
Chinese and Thai officials agreed to further enhance cooperation in the fight against the cyber scam gangs, including setting up a coordination center in Bangkok.
“Thai Prime Minister may allow Chinese police freer rein to operate in Thailand, including working more formally with Thai police and establishing Chinese police stations in Thailand,” Paul Chambers, an expert on Southeast Asian affairs at Naresuan University in Thailand, told VOA in a written response.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, foreign tourism to Thailand plunged, pummeling the economy. Numbers have started to recover and some 35 million visited the country in 2024, with more than 6.2 million from China. The recent abduction case, however, has presented a new challenge.
“Bringing back tourism is so important for Thailand, and they need the Chinese government’s support due to Beijing’s control over the media,” said Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington, who focuses on Southeast Asia politics.
While the cyber scam centers have posed challenges to Thailand and China, some analysts say this issue won’t fundamentally change relations between the two countries.
“Some recent cooperation on this front [between China and Thailand] signals that both countries are going to be pragmatic about this and not let the overall concerns rock the official relationship,” Hunter Marston, a research fellow at La Trobe University in Australia, told VOA by phone.
Improving economic ties
In addition to tackling illegal cyber scam operations, experts say the Thai prime minister also will seek to strengthen bilateral cooperation in areas such as infrastructure development with China during her trip. “Thailand may offer China some new choices for infrastructure projects,” Paul Chambers in Thailand said.
One project that is likely to be high on the agenda is the 609-kilometer-long high-speed rail project that Thailand hopes to finish building by 2030. The railway, when complete, will connect Thailand with southern China by traveling through neighboring Laos.
“The high-speed rail will be the priority for Thailand when it comes to their engagement with China, and China sees this project as beneficial to their regional vision for connectivity in the long run,” Marston said.
Despite the mutual interest in deepening collaboration over infrastructure projects, Thailand also faces challenges posed by the influx of cheap Chinese goods. Last year, the Thai government set up a task force made up of 28 agencies to review and revise regulations to curb the threats to Thai businesses posed by cheap Chinese imports.
While these challenges remain serious, Yaacob at Lowy Institute in Australia said Bangkok is likely to focus on more than just trade concerns.
“The Thai government will be keen to look at what areas they can work with the Chinese, such as attracting Chinese investments that could create jobs for the Thai people,” he told VOA in a video interview through Zoom.
Hedging between U.S. and China
Ahead of Paetongtarn’s trip to China, rights groups and countries around the world, including the U.S., have called on Thailand not to deport 48 Uyghur detainees back to China. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio had suggested that he would use diplomacy and the “longstanding U.S.-Thailand alliance to keep that from happening.
Marston says the Thai government may comply with Beijing’s demands.
“Thailand might use China’s request for the deportation of Uyghurs to ask for some deliverables from China, such as receiving Chinese support to become an advanced economy or to dominate certain sectors,” he told VOA.
Yaacob believes Thailand is likely to continue its longstanding foreign policy stance of hedging between Beijing and Washington. However, he adds that if the Trump administration comes down hard on Southeast Asia in terms of trade policies, it could give Beijing more room to seek closer ties with Bangkok.
“Southeast Asian countries rely on trade, so if they are affected [by the Trump administration’s policies], they may look at China as an alternative,” Yaacob told VOA.
In his view, security is an area where Beijing may seek to reduce Washington’s influence in Southeast Asia.
“The U.S. has played a major security role in Southeast Asia and China is quite interested in reducing American influence in that domain since they view Southeast Asia as their backyard,” Yaacob said.
