Taiwan is stepping up efforts to strengthen its capabilities to respond to a potential military blockade by China, as Beijing increases military pressure on the democratically ruled island.
In a report outlining Taiwan’s wartime food plan, which was submitted to parliament on Tuesday, the Ministry of Agriculture said it had maintained a three-month rice stockpile and ensured food and critical supplies were stored evenly across the island.
According to the ministry, the current rice stockpile can sustain Taiwan for seven months, and its fish feed inventory is enough to support fishing in ponds for over three months if sea fishing is not possible. The government said it is also drafting plans to prepare for rice rationing during wartime.
In the event of a Chinese military blockade, Taiwanese authorities said they would dedicate more farmland to grow rice and use additional ponds to grow aquaculture. The crops that Taiwan would prioritize growing in the event of war include sweet potatoes, soybeans and fresh vegetables. The ministry also plans to set up a task force to conduct a monthly inventory of the island’s food resources.
Officials from Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs also laid out plans to boost Taiwan’s energy reserves and energy supply.
Hu Wen-chong, director of the department of state-owned enterprise management at Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs, told lawmakers Wednesday that the government plans to set up three natural gas receiving stations to enhance the natural gas safety stock to more than 14 days. Taiwan currently has enough stock to maintain natural gas supplies for eight days.
In the event of a natural gas shortage during wartime, Hu told lawmakers that the government could activate some decommissioned coal-fired power plants to support the island’s energy supply needs.
Maintaining Taiwan’s oil supply is another concern. Taiwan imports close to 70% of its oil from the Middle East, which some legislators worry could be affected if China pressures regional countries to halt exports to the island during a blockade. Hu said the island has diversified its oil procurement from other countries, such as the United States and Indonesia.
Analysts welcomed the preparations for a potential blockade but said Taiwan’s wartime food and energy reserve plans were designed to cope with food natural disasters, such as typhoons and earthquakes.
“Wartime is different from natural disasters because there won’t be threats posed by the Chinese military during an earthquake,” Lin Ying-yu, a military expert at Tamkang University in Taiwan, told VOA by phone.
“For these plans to work in wartime scenarios, there is still a lot of room for improvement.”
Su Tzu-yun, a military expert at the Taipei-based Institute for National Defense and Security Research, noted that Taiwan has been taking monthly inventories of critical supplies and storing these resources across the island for a long time.
“There are close to 1,000 grain silos of various sizes across Taiwan, and it has been conducting critical resource distribution drills during the annual Wan An air-defense exercise in July,” Su said.
Natural gas accounts for around half of Taiwan’s electricity, a crucial resource that Taiwan will not be able to import during a Chinese blockade. Su said figuring out ways to use the island's oil and coal stocks to supply electricity is important.
In a phone interview with VOA, Su cited a report from Taiwan’s Energy Administration Act that said the island has about five months’ worth of oil and coal reserve, with around 190 million tons of underground coal. Those resources could be used to supply electricity if Taiwan experiences a natural gas shortage during a Chinese blockade, Su said.
Chinese blockade “an act of war”
Over the past week, China has increased its military pressure on Taiwan, staging a one-day blockade-style military exercise around the island just days after Taiwan President Lai Ching-te‘s National Day speech on October 10.
In the speech, Lai said the People’s Republic of China — China’s official name — has no right to represent Taiwan, formally known as the Republic of China. Beijing views Taiwan as part of its territory.
China also began holding live-fire air and sea drills near Niushan island off the southeastern Chinese province of Fujian on Tuesday.
On Wednesday, Taiwan’s defense minister Wellington Koo said a Chinese aircraft carrier group sailed through the Taiwan Strait. The group was led by the Liaoning, China’s oldest aircraft carrier. Taiwan’s defense ministry said it was closely monitoring the Liaoning’s movement.
Koo also said Beijing’s “Joint Sword-2024B” exercise, which took place on October 13, fell short of the definition of an actual blockade since the Chinese military didn’t impose no-flight and no-sail zones.
“If you really want to carry out a so-called blockade, which according to international law is to prohibit all aircraft and ships entering the area, then according to United Nations resolutions it is regarded as a form of war,” he told journalists at Taiwan’s parliament on Wednesday.
Koo added that since around one-fifth of global freight passes through the Taiwan Strait, a blockade imposed by China would have global consequences.
“The international community could not sit by and just watch,” Koo told lawmakers during a legislative session on Wednesday.
Since August 2022, China has held at least four blockade-style military exercises around Taiwan and each exercise has served as a response to high-level political exchanges between Taiwan and the U.S. or important speeches delivered by Taiwan’s president.
Lin at Tamkang University said while China is using these blockade-style military exercises to test its capabilities and improve coordination between different forces, they are also Beijing’s way of responding to major political remarks in Taiwan.
“China is trying to signal that whenever the Taiwanese government makes important political remarks, Beijing will respond militarily,” he told VOA.
Lin said Taipei should closely monitor Chinese military exercises and adjust or improve the military’s defense and offense capabilities accordingly.
