As the world prepares for U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House, Taiwan finds itself sandwiched between Washington and Beijing as it grapples with uncertainties about the outlook of U.S.-Taiwan relations and growing military pressure from China.
Trump has already picked several politicians known for their hawkish stances on China as potential nominees for his Cabinet, including Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz, but analysts say the president-elect's comments about Taiwan on the campaign trail and in recent interviews have not offered much clarity about how he might handle one of Washington’s most delicate relationships.
“We don't know if [Trump] means it when he wants to return the United States to a more isolationist position,” said J. Michael Cole, a Taipei-based senior fellow with the Global Taiwan Institute.
During an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek in July, Trump said Taiwan should pay the United States for defense and compared U.S. military spending on Taiwan to an insurance policy.
“I know the people very well. Respect them greatly. They did take 100% of our chip business. I think Taiwan should pay us for defense,” he said.
In October, Trump pledged to impose additional tariffs on China if Beijing were to “go into Taiwan.”
“I would say: If you go into Taiwan, I'm sorry to do this, I'm going to tax you, at 150% to 200%,” the President-elect said during an interview with The Wall Street Journal.
In his first post-election interview with NBC News on Dec. 8, Trump didn’t publicly say whether the U.S. would militarily defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.
“I’d prefer that they don’t do it,” Trump said, adding that he has a “very good relationship” with Chinese President Xi Jinping and that the two have been communicating since last month’s election.
During his time in office, U.S. President Joe Biden has on multiple occasions said his administration would defend Taiwan if it was attacked.
Not panicking, but concerned
Some Taiwanese residents worry about what they describe as a lack of clarity from the Trump administration.
“I’m slightly concerned about how Trump’s return to the White House might affect relations between the U.S. and Taiwan because he always prioritizes U.S. interests, which makes it hard to predict how his administration might form their Taiwan policies,” Angel Chi, a 28-year-old medical worker, told VOA in a recent interview on the streets of Taipei.
Others say while Trump’s position on Taiwan seems uncertain, they do not think his administration will reduce support for Taipei.
“I still have faith in the U.S. democratic system because he can’t decide everything by himself,” Christine Chiu, a 42-year-old accountant, told VOA.
The strong bipartisan support for Taiwan in Congress and some potential Trump Cabinet members’ track records on foreign policy could prevent U.S.-Taiwan relations from undergoing major changes during Trump’s second term, experts said.
“I don’t think there is panic in Taipei because we dealt with this situation before and we have confidence in our congressional support in the U.S.,” said Lai I-Chung, president of The Prospect Foundation, a Taiwan-based think tank made up of academics and government officials.
“The mood [in Taiwan] is we will be careful and watchful about the development, but we are not panicking,” he told VOA in an interview in Taipei.
Taiwan-US relations
In recent weeks, Taiwan’s government has been reaching out to Republican congressional leaders and Trump’s transition team. Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te spoke with U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson on the phone during his first overseas trip to the Pacific region in early December. On that trip, Lai had stopovers in Hawaii and the U.S. territory of Guam.
Additionally, two senior national security officials from Taiwan traveled to the U.S. last week to meet members of Trump’s transition team, hoping to establish ties before next month’s inauguration, Reuters news agency reported last on Dec. 19.
Cole said there should be enough “institutional resistance” in the U.S. government to prevent longstanding policies toward Taiwan from being abruptly altered.
During a regular press conference on Dec. 6, China’s Foreign Ministry responded to a question on Lai’s stopover in Guam and Hawaii and said, “No one should underestimate the firm resolve, will and ability of the Chinese government and people to safeguard sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
China’s military pressure campaign
As Taiwan tries to deepen its engagement with U.S. officials and the incoming Trump administration, China has been increasing military pressure on the island throughout 2024.
Beijing has conducted two blockade-style military exercises around Taiwan since Lai took office in May.
Last week, Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said Beijing deployed the largest number of naval and coast guard vessels to regional waters in almost three decades.
Apart from military exercises, China has increased pressure on Taiwan through a range of what are called gray zone operations, measures that involve irregular tactics but stop short of combat.
China’s use of its coast guard to intimidate and test Taiwan is one example of those gray zone tactics.
Beijing has repeatedly sent coast guard vessels to patrol waters near Taiwan’s outlying Kinmen and Matsu islands since February. Kinmen and Matsu are closer to China than they are to the main island of Taiwan.
The Prospect Foundation’s Lai said China has some coast guard vessels that are similar in size to naval destroyers, making it harder for Taiwan’s coast guard to respond proportionately.
“It would be difficult for Taiwan to [deploy] naval vessels against the Chinese coast guard, and when Taiwan responds by deploying its coast guard forces, the vessels are smaller ships [while] the Chinese coast guard vessels are as big as navy ships,” he told VOA.
Countering China
To counter the growing military pressure and gray zone operations from Beijing, Taiwan has incorporated more unscripted, real-combat drills into its annual military exercises.
The island has also increased its defense budget in recent years, which is set to reach a new high of $19.74 billion dollars in 2025.
This year, Taiwan’s government also established a committee to help strengthen the island’s civil defense capabilities.
Cole said Taiwan still faces challenges in that regard.
“There is still quite a bit of resistance not only within the security apparatus and armed forces, which don’t like the idea of involving citizens in defense, the opposition parties have also sought to derail [relevant] plans and fundings,” he told VOA.
What may come next depends on Taiwan’s actions and Beijing’s assessment of Trump’s policies toward the island after he takes office in January.
