Taiwan’s January presidential election is emerging as a three-way race analysts say will be a referendum on China relations.
The opposition Kuomintang and Taiwan People’s Party, both of whom want to renew talks with China, failed this month to agree on a joint presidential ticket. The Kuomintang will run Hou Yu-ih, a former police chief, for president with media commentator Jaw Shaw-Kang as his running mate. The Taiwan People’s Party ticket will be former doctor and mayor Ko Wen-je for president with Cynthia Wu, a member of Taiwan’s legislature, the Legislative Yuan, for vice president.
The ruling Democratic Progressive Party presidential candidate is Taiwan’s current vice president, Lai Ching-te, who is also a former doctor and mayor and has been leading in the polls in recent months. On Monday, he picked Taiwan’s former envoy to the United States, Hsiao Bi-Khim, as his running mate.
Foxconn founder Terry Gou, who had been a potential fourth candidate, announced his withdrawal from the race Friday. He did not say who he might support in the brief statement shared on his Facebook page.
“Now that we have the vice presidential candidates in line, Taiwanese voters have to pick who they think is going to better preserve Taiwan’s autonomy,” Lev Nachman, a political scientist at National Chengchi University in Taiwan, told VOA by phone.
With public discussion and media reports largely focusing on the opposition parties’ attempt to join forces over the last few months, some experts say they think the selection of their presidential candidates will help redirect the focus back to more substantive election issues.
“After all the candidates are confirmed, the election will at least temporarily return to policy issues, including the debate on cross-strait relations between different candidates,” Yen Wei-ting, an Taiwan politics expert at Franklin and Marshall College in Pennsylvania, told VOA in a written response.
Serious ramifications for cross-strait relations
Current President Tsai Ing-wen will step down after May because of term limits, so the election could have serious ramifications for cross-strait relations. China views Taiwan as its territory and has traditionally closely monitored the island’s political developments.
For Beijing, Lai is a threat. During a daily press conference on Tuesday, Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson said Lai attempted to hide that he is a “pursuer of Taiwan independence” and an “instigator of war.”
Since announcing his intention to run for president this summer, Lai has vowed to maintain the status quo across the Taiwan Strait while highlighting the importance of Taiwan maintaining close relations with like-minded democracies such as the United States and Japan.
On the other hand, the Kuomintang’s Hou Yu-ih has been campaigning on the promise of reducing tension across the Taiwan Strait and restarting dialogue with China, arguing that the election will be a choice between war and peace.
To present his party as an alternative for Taiwanese voters, the Taiwan People’s Party’s Ko said he would make communication and deterrence the two pillars of his China policy and try to restart engagement with China in lower-risk areas.
Nachman told VOA he thinks that since the Kuomintang vice presidential candidate is known for pro-China rhetoric, China will show a clear preference for the Kuomintang.
“Jaw is going to be someone that Beijing looks at and says, we can endorse this ticket properly now,” he told VOA.
Nachman said the outcome of the election could determine how China structures its response to cross-strait relations.
“If the KMT is able to pose a competitive fight against the DPP, I think Beijing might tone down its rhetoric during this election cycle,” he said, adding that a resounding Democratic Progressive Party victory could push China to maintain the same aggressive attittude toward Taiwan consistent with what they’ve shown over the last few years.
Voters look beyond the China factor
Some Taiwanese voters, though, say cross-strait relations may not be the key factor determining their vote.
“The Kuomintang and Democratic Progressive Party have long dominated Taiwanese politics, and they always fail to put forward concrete policies on domestic issues,” Stanley Chung, a 34-year-old banker, told VOA by phone. “I will vote for the third-party candidate Ko Wen-je, because I think he can help address the issue of corruption that has long plagued Taiwan’s politics.”
Since all presidential candidates have laid out their stance on cross-strait issues, other voters think their policy proposals on issues such as unaffordable housing prices and low wages for young people will have more impact on their final decision.
“For me, it’s more important to see how a future leader of Taiwan will address domestic issues that directly affect our everyday life, rather than their master plan about how to safeguard Taiwan’s sovereignty, which feels very distant from me,” Judy Hsieh, a 45-year-old accountant, told VOA by phone.
