China initiated a new wave of influence campaigns against Taiwan over the past few days, as its top official overseeing Taiwan affairs reiterated Beijing’s “resolve and ability to shatter” the island’s attempt to seek independence while promising to welcome more Taiwanese people to participate in cross-strait exchanges.
During his keynote address at the 16th Straits Forum in the southern coastal city of Xiamen on June 14, China’s No.4 official, Wang Huning, said, “Separatists seeking Taiwan independence,” an indirect reference to the island’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party, undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and harm the interests and well-being of Taiwanese people.
“Their actions will push Taiwan to the brink of war and bring disaster to people on the island,” he said.
While he renewed warnings directed at Taiwan’s new government, which only took office last month, Wang said Beijing would welcome more Taiwanese people taking part in cross-strait exchanges.
Some analysts say Wang’s comments reflect Beijing’s long-standing practice of using a “carrot and stick" strategy to influence Taiwan. “What’s more interesting is that Beijing seems to be turning Fujian into a testing ground for its favorable policies toward Taiwan,” Chen Fang-Yu, a political scientist at Soochow University in Taiwan, told VOA by phone.
Reaching out to investors, students
Because of the rising tension between Beijing and Taipei since Taiwan President Lai Ching-te took office on May 20, Chen said Beijing must limit the scope of its favorable policies toward Taiwan and use it to signal that it’s still open to exchange with Taiwan.
“Since Beijing adopted a tough approach to handle cross-strait relations after the Democratic Progressive Party came to power in 2016, they can no longer roll out broad-based policies that are favorable to Taiwan, and instead, they have to limit the scope of the benefits they offer to Taiwan,” he said.
In recent months, Beijing has rolled out plans to enhance access to China for Taiwanese investors and encourage Taiwan residents to study, work and live in Fujian while resuming travel from the coastal Chinese province to Taiwan’s outlying Matsu Islands.
In addition to the influence campaign from China, Taiwan’s main opposition party, the China-friendly Kuomintang (KMT), has also renewed its pledge to promote peace across the Taiwan Strait while accusing the ruling DPP, which highlights Taiwan’s sovereignty, of “setting fire” to cross-strait relations.
Sean Lien, deputy chairperson of the KMT, said his party hopes to make Taiwanese people realize that it is “the party genuinely making an effort to ensure Taiwan’s safety and democracy” through cross-strait platforms like the Straits Forum.
“It is absurd that the ones setting fire [to cross-strait relations] are sometimes considered heroes, while those putting out the fires are derided,” he said during an interview with Chinese media outlets.
Party of peace
Some experts say Lien’s comments reflect the KMT’s ongoing attempt to present itself as the political party that can conduct peaceful exchanges with China.
“The KMT is doubling down on the framing that they are the only one who can try to calm Beijing down and Taiwan President Lai Ching-te is the person messing up cross-strait relations,” Lev Nachman, a political scientist at National Chengchi University in Taiwan, told VOA by phone.
While the KMT has long claimed that the DPP could lead Taiwan to war with China, Chen at Soochow University said this narrative has become more effective at influencing some Taiwanese people’s views on the ruling party and China.
“Since the Ukraine war has increased some Taiwanese people’s fears towards a potential Chinese invasion, the KMT’s claim that they are the only political party that can maintain peace across the Taiwan Strait may appeal to some Taiwanese people who are concerned about a potential war with China,” he told VOA.
Despite Beijing's and the KMT’s efforts to portray his government as “separatist forces” that will lead Taiwan into a war, Lai maintained his tough tone on China’s threats toward Taiwan, warning Sunday that Beijing views the annexation of Taiwan as its great national cause.
“The biggest challenge is to face the powerful rise of China, [which is] destroying the status quo in the Taiwan Strait and regards Taiwan's annexation and the elimination of the Republic of China as the great rejuvenating cause of its people,” he said at an event commemorating the 100th anniversary of a military academy in Kaohsiung.
Despite his attempt to reassure the Taiwanese people that he is committed to maintaining the status quo across the Taiwan Strait, Nachman said Lai’s comments failed to lower Beijing’s skepticism.
“Beijing views Lai’s inauguration speech as overly provocative and there is this intrinsic distrust of him that even if he reiterates his commitment to maintaining the status quo across the Taiwan Strait, the Chinese government doesn’t seem to buy his message,” he told VOA.
Creating 'chaos'
Chen said since the Lai administration hasn’t found an effective way to respond to the pressure imposed by Beijing and the KMT, it has allowed Beijing’s attempt to create chaos in Taiwan and increase the public’s distrust in the new government to be somewhat effective.
“The goal of Beijing’s influence campaign against Taiwan is to create chaos and increase distrust in the government and there will always be individuals in Taiwan willing to help facilitate Beijing’s campaign,” he told VOA.
But as the United States prepares to hold its presidential election in November, some experts say it’s unlikely that Beijing and Taipei will do anything to drastically change the dynamics across the Taiwan Strait.
“The dynamic across the Taiwan Strait is going to be as quiet as it possibly can be, [because] there is a lot of uncertainty over who will be the next U.S. president,” Rorry Daniels, managing director of the Asia Society Policy Institute, told VOA by phone.
