Syrians and legal experts have been reacting to comments by Syria’s de facto leader that new elections following the ouster of Bashar al-Assad's regime could take four years and drafting a new constitution up to three years.
In an interview with the Saudi news channel al-Arabiya, Ahmad al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, stated on Sunday that holding elections in Syria requires sufficient time to lay the groundwork for a comprehensive political process.
His remarks ignited a debate among Syrians and legal experts who believe he and his group, Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), could exploit the transition period to consolidate their control over the country, or that the proposed timeline is realistic given Syria’s fragmented state after more than a decade of conflict.
HTS, formerly al-Qaida’s branch in Syria, led the 11-day rebel offensive that toppled the Assad regime on Dec. 8. HTS has controlled an enclave in the country’s northwestern province of Idlib in recent years.
Anwar al-Bunni, co-founder and executive director of the Syrian Center for Legal Studies and Research, described the proposed timetable for a new constitution and elections as logical.
“We cannot talk about a new constitution and elections while Syrians are scattered all over the world,” he told VOA, referring to those Syrians who have been displaced due to the country’s 13-year conflict.
According to the United Nations, over 14 million Syrians have left their homes since 2011, with 7.2 million internally displaced, while nearly 5.5 million are refugees in neighboring countries and elsewhere.
Bunni said Syrian refugees should return home to secure decent shelter and basic services, enabling them to contemplate and discuss their political future.
“A 3- to 5-year period is realistic before Syrians are fully prepared to vote and participate in politics,” he said. “We need an independent election commission and political parties, and for that to happen, you need a great deal of preparation.”
Ammar Abdulhamid, a Syrian American activist who serves as a parliamentarian and director of policy at the World Liberty Congress, agreed that a 4-year wait before holding elections was not unreasonable, “as long as the transitional government is sufficiently diverse, and the interim governance structure remains responsive to criticism while respecting basic human rights.
“However, if this 4-year period is used to fill key positions and institutions with Islamist loyalists to HTS and Al-Sharaa, we may be looking at a planned takeover of governance — a shift from one form of sectarian authoritarianism, justified in the name of protecting minorities, to another, justified by claims of majority entitlement,” Abdulhamid wrote on X, adding that “the composition of the upcoming transitional government will be a key indicator of where things are headed.”
HTS has appointed a caretaker government composed of loyalists to manage affairs until March 1, 2025, the new government’s own deadline for initiating a transitional process. In his al-Arabiya interview, al-Sharaa said a national dialogue conference, tentatively scheduled to be held in January, will determine the structure of the transitional government.
Bunni said there must be a legal framework for the country to function in the transitional period, noting the need for a provisional constitution.
Other experts argue that establishing a participatory system of governance for all Syrians should begin by including all stakeholders in the transitional process.
“Syrians are not naive,” said Bassam Alahmad, executive director of Syrians for Truth and Justice. “They know where HTS comes from, and they would want to ensure that they have a say during this crucial time.”
He told VOA he didn’t believe Syrians were as overly concerned about the 4-year timetable. Instead, their focus was on what might unfold during that period.
“If the HTS has the intention and political will to establish an inclusive system that allows all Syrians, including Kurds and other groups, to actively participate in their country’s affairs now and in the future, I don’t think people would mind if the process took a couple years,” Alahmad said.
