Gunshots that shattered the air during a campaign rally – part of an attempt to assassinate former U.S. President Donald Trump – are putting a new focus on an already fraught threat landscape that has put national security officials on edge for more than three years.
New York Mayor Eric Adams announced late Saturday he is surging police to certain areas “out of an abundance of caution,” following the shooting in Butler, Pennsylvania, that killed one person, and which saw Trump leave the stage with blood on his face.
“The events that unfolded at today’s rally in Pennsylvania are horrific,” Adams posted on the X social media platform. “Political violence has no place in this country.”
The possibility of political violence has been a major concern for the U.S. Homeland Security Department as far back as January 2021, when it issued a bulletin warning that emboldened domestic extremists could mobilize following the breach of the U.S. Capitol earlier that month.
The most recent Homeland Security assessment, in September, warned of a “high risk” from a potential attack, pointing to “lone offenders or small group attacks that occur with little warning.”
It further warned the 2024 elections could be in their crosshairs, and that attacks could be directed at "government officials, voters, and elections‑related personnel and infrastructure, including polling places, ballot drop box locations, voter registration sites, campaign events, political party offices, and vote counting sites."
It is “not surprising at all to see this,” Colin Clarke, director of research at the global intelligence firm The Soufan Group, told VOA.
“Tensions have been building on both sides of the political spectrum and extremists have taken root,” he said, cautioning that the shooting could make the coming days and weeks more dangerous.
Rachel Kleinfeld, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and an expert on political violence, told VOA the potential for violence could impact lesser-known politicians and more local races.
“America has been facing skyrocketing threats of political violence for a number of years against politicians and candidates at every level, from school board to, now President,” she said.
Kleinfeld said it will take more than increased security to keep additional violence at bay.
“Political leaders should also be making statements condemning all political violence, which has no place in a democracy,” she said. “We know that leaders' statements matter.”
FBI Director Christopher Wray told lawmakers in June the threat environment remained perilous.
“We view the domestic terrorist threat as being persistent, I should say, and significant," Wray said.
There have also been repeated warnings about continuing attempts by Russia and Iran, especially, to poison the U.S. social media landscape and inflame tensions.
An assessment from the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence, issued Tuesday, accused Moscow of seeking to “amplify domestic divisions” ahead of the November presidential election.
It further accused Tehran of acting as a “chaos agent,” seeking to “stoke social divisions and undermine confidence in U.S. democratic institutions.”
Whether and how these factors played a role in the shooting at the Trump rally Saturday is still under investigation, but some analysts say it was likely only a matter of time before anger turned into action.
“There is so much we don't know about what happened, so there is nothing but speculation,” Clarke said.
“My main concern,” he said, “is that this could lead to a spiral of violence and could come to characterize the remainder of the election season.”
