U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to embark on his first official trip as the nation’s top diplomat on Saturday, with planned visits to Panama, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Guatemala and the Dominican Republic from Saturday to Thursday.
Officials and experts say the visit is partly aimed at countering China’s growing influence in the region. The trip comes as President Donald Trump pushes to regain control of the Panama Canal, and as Washington intensifies efforts to curb illegal migration.
“Secretary Rubio’s engagements with senior officials and business leaders will promote regional cooperation on our core, shared interests: Stopping illegal and large-scale migration, fighting the scourge of transnational criminal organizations and drug traffickers, countering China, and deepening economic partnerships to enhance prosperity in our hemisphere,” State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said in a statement on Friday.
Trump has asserted that China controls the Panama Canal, a crucial trade route linking the Atlantic and Pacific. But Panama has denied the claim, insisting that it manages the canal impartially for all maritime traffic.
On Thursday, Rubio warned that China could potentially block access to the canal in the event of a conflict.
“If the government in China in a conflict tells them to shut down the Panama Canal, they will have to. And in fact, I have zero doubt that they have contingency planning to do so. That is a direct threat,” Rubio said during an interview with SiriusXM Radio.
In Panama City, Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino ruled out any discussion of control over the canal with Rubio.
"I cannot negotiate and much less open a process of negotiation on the canal," he told reporters on Thursday. "That is sealed. The canal belongs to Panama.”
Some analysts caution that China has been employing economic and noneconomic tactics across the Western Hemisphere to expand its influence, prompting national security concerns.
"You might think that you are just getting more Chinese investment in your country, but pretty soon you are kind of being coerced or coaxed into signing at the Belt and Road Initiative, or you're being coaxed into signing another deal that gives elements of your telecoms," said Ryan Berg, director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, during an online discussion Thursday.
The Belt and Road Initiative, or BRI, is a massive infrastructure project launched by China in 2013 under President Xi Jinping, aiming to connect multiple continents through land and maritime routes. The United States has cautioned that the BRI “is fueled by China's mission to manipulate and undermine the global rules-based trading system for its own benefit.”
China’s foreign direct investment, or FDI, in Latin America and the Caribbean has grown significantly, Berg said, citing approximately $160 billion in Chinese FDI over the past 15 years.
“From the lens of national security, a lot of China's commercial endeavors are fundamentally military ambitions that they're prepositioning into Latin America,” said Joseph Humire, executive director of the Center for a Secure Free Society, or SFS, a national security think tank.
“China's been in Panama for more than 20 years, but China really got politically active in Panama after 2017,” when Panama signed the BRI and shifted its diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to the People’s Republic of China, said Humire on Thursday. He said that Panama's economy has declined in recent years.
All the nations on Rubio’s itinerary maintain diplomatic ties with Cuba and Venezuela.
Given the strained U.S. relations with these countries and their restrictions on accepting deportees, Rubio may use his trip to advocate for “third-country” agreements, allowing other nations to receive people deported by the U.S. Additionally, he could work on facilitating increased repatriation flights for migrants.
