The tree-lined alley leading to the personal residence of Pakistan's former Prime Minister Imran Khan in Lahore is quiet. A severe crackdown on his political party has scared away supporters who used to revel late into the night and sleep at their beloved leader's doorstep.
Now, only a small contingent of police idly keep watch outside the iconic address in the eastern metropolis. A placard bearing a Quranic verse blesses the resident who has been gone for a year.
Aug. 5 marks one year since Khan was put behind bars in the garrison city of Rawalpindi near the capital Islamabad on graft charges. Over time, the list of the former prime minister's alleged crimes grew to include treason, illicit marriage, fomenting anti-state violence and inciting vandalism of military and state properties.
Convictions coming in quick succession sentenced one of the country's most popular politicians to nearly three decades in prison, just as Pakistan headed to general elections in February this year. By July, though, higher courts had overturned lower courts' verdicts.
Despite much-needed legal relief, Khan remains behind bars facing new charges of corruption and anti-state violence. He denies any wrongdoing.
Analysts say Khan's incarceration and the military-backed crackdown on his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party, or PTI, may have quashed street agitation that followed his 2022 ouster. They have failed to bring political stability. Instead, experts say, the widely criticized measures have plunged powerful state institutions into a tug of war.
Military v. judiciary
Veteran journalist and political analyst Suhail Warraich says the legal relief Khan has received after a very public falling out with the country's powerful military is unusual in Pakistan's political history.
"For the first time, the alliance between [military] establishment and judiciary that has been going on since 1954, in which the judiciary would stamp any decision that the military took, is not there," Warraich told VOA. "We know the [military] establishment wants one decision and judiciary is giving a different decision."
Sayed Zulfikar Bukhari, a spokesperson for Khan's Tehreek-e-Insaf party, told VOA the legal victories were expected.
"We knew that when his [Khan's] cases come up in court, as soon as they go to a higher court, it will be virtually impossible for any judge to consider these previous cases as genuine," said Khan's close aide.
Still, Khan has accused of bias the Chief Justice of Pakistan Qazi Faez Esa and the top judge of the Islamabad High Court, demanding their recusal from his cases.
A United Nations-backed panel last month declared Khan's detention arbitrary.
Speaking to VOA, Azma Bukhari, spokesperson of the Punjab government, rejected the popular view that the state failed to bring credible charges against Khan.
"Khan is a lucky man! It's not as if the government has not been able to provide evidence. It's just that nothing stands up to Imran Khan," said Bukhari, a member of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's party, Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz).
"There is a sense that only those siding with Khan will be respected and spared bullying," Bukhari said, accusing senior judges of favoring Khan under populist pressure.
Analysts whom VOA spoke with agree some senior judges may be following the public's pulse.
Unclear ideology
Since his ouster, Khan may have succeeded in unleashing pent-up public anger against the military's self-admitted interference in political affairs, but it is unclear whether his aggressive criticism of the top brass is rooted in a desire for civilian supremacy, political observers say.
Last week, Khan offered "conditional negotiations" to the military if the leadership appointed a representative. He has refused to speak with politicians. The message came through a post on his account on X, formerly Twitter, operated from overseas.
"We will not hold any talks, nor will we negotiate [a deal] with the puppet, mafia regime, imposed on us illegitimately through fraud and rigging," the message stated.
Government spokesperson Bukhari and journalist Asma Shirazi criticized Khan for rejecting talks with public representatives.
"It is important to get clarity on what is Khan's ideology? What does he want? How does he see democracy, civilian supremacy, freedom of expression? Where does he want to take that?" asked Shirazi.
While in office, Khan rejected the charge that he rose to power with the military's support, though he frequently touted his closeness with the powerful institution. He repeatedly accused his political opponents of corruption and treason, without providing evidence. In 2021, global media watchdog Reporters Without Borders listed Khan among "press freedom predators."
"The way the constitution ensures judicial independence, media freedom, civil liberties, PTI does not believe in that strongly," Warraich said. "This is a gripe a lot of democratic [-minded] elements have with him."
Instability persists
Since May 9, 2023, when Khan's supporters stormed government and military properties in protest, PTI has faced a severe military-backed crackdown, forcing several senior party leaders to either defect or go underground.
Still, PTI-backed candidates won the largest number of seats in the Feb. 8 general elections this year. PTI has also managed to keep Khan and the party's plight in the spotlight internationally.
In June, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a resolution urging an investigation into claims of election irregularities.
"There is a diaspora that has influence, and it is using that," Shirazi said.
Pakistan rejected statements from U.S. lawmakers as unwelcome and unwarranted interference.
“That is not interference. That is awareness," said Khan's aide Bukhari, defending the leader's seemingly contradictory position of seeking support from U.S. lawmakers while accusing the Biden administration of conspiring in his ouster. Washington has denied the allegation.
Sharif's government seems to have backed down on its recent threat to ban PTI for alleged anti-state activities, but the party's spokesperson and its electronic and social media team members are under arrest, facing anti-state propaganda and terrorism charges.
Social media platform X, where Khan's supporters are active, has remained largely suspended in Pakistan since February, while PTI's attempts at street agitations have been frequently quashed.
Despite being imprisoned, Khan holds the key to end the political deadlock that continues to destabilize the country, Shirazi insists, since public sympathy remains with him.
The battle between Khan and the military, however, has deep implications for Pakistan, she said.
"This is not a fight for rule," Shirazi said. "This is a fight for power."
