The Philippines is increasing efforts to strengthen defense cooperation with several like-minded democracies amid ongoing tensions with China in the disputed South China Sea.
Manila is trying to conclude major defense pacts with Canada and New Zealand and explore possibilities of expanding joint military drills with the United States, its main defense partner.
Analysts say the development is part of Manila’s effort to counter China’s aggressive maritime activities near several disputed reefs in the South China Sea, which Beijing claims almost the entirety as its territory.
“The Philippines is trying to boost their capabilities to sufficiently deter China by putting a lot of emphasis on the Mutual Defense Treaty with the United States while broadening the net of cooperation to other like-minded democracies,” said Collin Koh, a maritime security expert at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. described the defense pacts with Canada and New Zealand as part of Manila’s efforts to “build and strengthen” alliances with like-minded countries.
“The status of visiting forces agreement with New Zealand is an important part of … both countries’ and multilateral countries’ initiatives to resist China’s unilateral narrative to change international law,” he told journalists on the sideline of an event on Feb. 6.
Meanwhile, the Canadian ambassador to the Philippines, David Hartman, said at a press event on Feb. 7 that the visiting forces agreement would enable Canada to “have even more substantive participation in joint and multilateral training exercises and operations with the Philippines and allies” in the Indo-Pacific region.
Some Philippine analysts describe the signing of the agreements as part of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s efforts to “reset” the country’s long-term strategic interests.
As China continues to challenge different countries’ territorial claims across the Pacific region, “the Philippines’ efforts to consolidate more agreements with allies fits Manila’s need to defend its maritime territories and safeguard the freedom of navigation in the region,” Joshua Espena, a resident fellow at the Philippine-based International Development and Security Cooperation, told VOA by phone.
Since about one-third of global trade passes through the South China Sea, Koh in Singapore said other democratic countries view signing defense agreements with the Philippines as a way to safeguard their strategic and economic interests in the Indo-Pacific region.
While the Philippines’ efforts to strengthen defense cooperation with other democracies may not fundamentally change China’s behaviors in the South China Sea, “it is still a concern for China when you have so many partners being militarily involved with Manila,” Koh told VOA by phone.
Apart from negotiating defense pacts with Canada and New Zealand, the Philippines is also looking to expand joint military exercises with the United States.
During a call on Tuesday, the Armed Forces of the Philippines chief Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr. and U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff Gen. CQ Brown talked about the “military modernization initiatives, Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement sites and increasing the scope and capacity of joint exercises in the Philippines,” according to U.S. Joint Staff Spokesperson Navy Capt. Jereal Dorsey.
In addition to the discussions, the Philippines has conducted a series of joint drills with the U.S. and Canada since last week, a development that China said undermines “peace and stability in the South China Sea.”
While countries around the world are bracing for uncertainties extending from the foreign policy of the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, some experts say recent developments suggest the U.S. may continue to uphold its defense partnership with the Philippines.
“The people [that] the Trump administration has put into key security roles are mostly China hawks, so they see the China threat as being very real, and the Philippines remains on the front line [of that threat,]” said Raymond Powell, director of Stanford University’s Sealight project, which tracks Chinese maritime activities across the Indo-Pacific region.
He said the Philippines may “stand to gain” from the Trump administration’s foreign policy direction. Manila “may have one of the strongest arguments” to convince the U.S. to shift resources to the Indo-Pacific region because “they are on the front line,” Powell told VOA by phone.
As the U.S. and the Philippines continue to uphold their defense cooperation, China has described the partnership as “extremely dangerous.”
“China will not sit idly by when its security interests are harmed or threatened,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said during a regular press conference on Wednesday.
To counter the Chinese coast guard’s aggressive operations in the South China Sea, Brawner Jr. said Wednesday that the Philippines hoped to buy two more submarines and BrahMos missiles in India. The Reuters news agency reported that New Delhi is expected to sign a $200 million missile deal with Manila in 2025.
Powell said the additional missiles could strengthen the Philippines’ deterrence against China, while Manila may need to put a lot of effort into familiarizing its military forces with the submarines.
Despite Philippine President Marcos Jr.’s recent attempt to “offer a deal” to reduce tension in the South China Sea, Powell said Beijing’s aggressive posture will make it hard for the proposal to materialize.
“We're seeing much heavier [Chinese] Coast Guard and militia activity around Scarborough Shoal, and I don’t see a lessening of tension there,” he said, adding that tensions between Beijing and Manila in the South China Sea will likely “plateau” in the near future.
