Palau’s President Surangel Whipps Jr. has secured another term in office after defeating former President Tommy Remengesau Jr. in its Nov. 5 election that was closely monitored. Palau sits on the front line of competition for geopolitical influence between the United States and China in the Pacific Ocean.
Analysts say the outcome shows more Palauan voters support Whipps’ policy agenda, which includes tax reforms and deeper engagement with the United States.
“It seems Palau’s closer relationship with the United States under Whipps Jr.’s leadership makes sense for the majority of Palauans,” said Henryk Szadziewski, an expert on Pacific affairs at the University of Hawaii at Manoa.
While election authorities still haven’t finished counting absentee ballots, Whipps has won the vote with one of the biggest margins in Palau’s electoral history, 57.5%. Remengesau, who is Whipps’ brother-in-law, took 41.3%.
Whipps thanked supporters for allowing him to continue “building on the progress” that his administration has achieved over the last four years.
“Your decision to grant me a second term as president is a responsibility I hold with the utmost respect,” he said in a statement shared with VOA on Monday.
The president can only have two consecutive four-year terms and must step down after that, but he can run again after a four-year gap in between.
Remengesau has served a total of four terms already.
Separately, the spokesperson for Palau’s election commission told Radio New Zealand the following day that it was “highly unlikely” that Whipps would lose the election.
Meanwhile, in a concession speech broadcast by a local radio station, the Palau Wave Productions, on November 7, Remengesau said the election is finished and the Palauan people have “spoken through a peaceful and free election.”
Palau has a population of around 20,000 people and is situated around 890 kilometers (550 miles) east of the Philippines. It is one of three Pacific Island countries that receive significant economic support from the U.S. under agreements known as the Compacts of Free Association, or COFA.
Under the accords, the U.S. provides economic aid worth billions of dollars, while Palau, the Marshall Islands, and the Federated States of Micronesia give the U.S. exclusive military access to their land, water and airspace, as well as the right to deny China access to their ports and territorial waters.
In September, U.S. lawmakers passed funding for key provisions in COFA for Palau. The U.S. military is also helping to repair a runway on a World War II-era Japanese airfield on the island of Peleliu and installing two radar systems on Palau.
Experts say they expect Palau to keep deepening ties with the U.S. during Whipps’ second term and relevant efforts will likely include increasing the frequency of U.S. military visits and enhancing connectivity with Palau.
“There’s going to be a much stronger U.S. presence in terms of military visits, joint actions to combat transnational crime and illegal fishing, and boost transport and digital connectivity,” Meg Keen, a senior fellow at the Lowy Institute in Australia, told VOA by phone.
During his first term, Whipps repeatedly said “presence is deterrence,” referring to the increased U.S. military presence in Palau, and characterized the Pacific island country as “part of the U.S. homeland” when it comes to security.
In an interview with VOA last month, Whipps said U.S. protection plays a key role in safeguarding Palau’s territorial integrity.
“Since Palau is small, having the protection of the United States is important because we see what’s happening now in the South China Sea between the Philippines and China,” he said during an interview at his office in Koror, Palau.
Since 2023, the Chinese and Philippine coast guards have repeatedly confronted each other at several disputed shoals that both sides claim to be their territories. While Beijing views almost the entire South China Sea as its territorial water, a 2016 ruling by an international arbitration court found that most Chinese claims in the South China Sea were invalid. Beijing refuses to abide by the ruling.
While many Palauans support the Whipps administration’s efforts to deepen security ties with the U.S., some political observers say some Palauans are still concerned about the negative impacts associated with the increased U.S. military presence across the Pacific island country.
“Some Palauan people hold this apprehensiveness about the implication of increased U.S. military presence in Palau because they rarely saw U.S. soldiers in military uniforms in the past,” Kambes Kesolei, editor of one of Palau’s main newspapers, Tia Belau, told VOA by phone.
“Some Palauans wonder what they can do to prevent Palau from becoming over-militarized,” he added.
In addition to deepening ties with the U.S., some analysts say Palau will maintain its diplomatic ties with Taiwan, which could lead to “increased coercive pressure” from China. Beijing considers Taiwan part of its territory and has repeatedly vowed to reunite with the island, by force if necessary.
“I expect ties between Palau and Taiwan to remain robust but increasing coercive pressure from the People’s Republic of China, [PRC,] may increase risks for Palau, which will need strong support from the U.S. and like-minded partners to maintain resiliency against PRC coercion,” Parker Novak, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub, told VOA in a written response.
Whipps has accused China of weaponizing tourism against Palau and posing a wide range of threats to the Pacific island country’s national security, including cyberattacks and illegal incursion of Palau’s territorial water by Chinese vessels.
“In 2015 and 2016, tourism numbers from China went through the roof, which helped Palau’s economy grow 30%, but since Palau never switched diplomatic recognition [from Taiwan] to China, that number just basically collapsed in the following years,” Whipps told VOA.
In response to questions about Whipps’ claim that China has pressured Palau to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said during a regular press conference on November 4 that only a small number of countries, including Palau, still maintain diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
“China urges these countries to fulfill their obligations under international law, stand on the right side of history, and make right decisions that truly serve their fundamental and long-term interests at an early date,” she said.
While Whipps is likely to remain critical of China’s attempt to coerce Palau, Keen in Australia said the Palauan president is not going to completely “shut the door for China.” “He is very much wary of how China has used land and tourism to build pressure, but if the investment is in the national interests of Palau, he is willing to consider,” she told VOA.
