The renewed military cooperation between North Korea and Russia in 2023 could increase threats to global security in coming years, analysts said.
As Russia’s Ukraine war approaches the second anniversary of the February 2022 invasion, Moscow has turned to North Korea for help in replenishing its depleted stockpile of arms.
In exchange, Russia has suggested it will help develop weapons that Pyongyang wants, including a spy satellite.
North Korea claimed on November 28 that a satellite it launched into orbit the week before had taken photos of critical U.S. sites, including the Norfolk Naval Station, the Newport News shipyard, the White House and the Pentagon.
The South Korean intelligence agency believes Pyongyang was able to launch the satellite only because of technological assistance from Russia, according to South Korean lawmakers who were briefed by the agency in late November. Previous launch attempts failed in May and August.
Indo-Pacific countries, including Taiwan and Australia, as well as European countries such as the U.K., France and Ukraine, described the satellite launch as a threat to their national security.
“We fear in particular that Russian counterparts [are acting] for the benefit of the North Korean regime,” said French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna following a November 23 meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing. She said these actions are causing “destabilizing activities in the region in defiance of [U.N.] Security Council resolutions.”
China has not condemned Pyongyang’s satellite launch or arms dealings between North Korea and Russia and has not used its leverage to curb North Korea’s threatening behavior despite multiple requests from Washington and Seoul.
Robert Rapson, charge d’affaires and deputy chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Seoul from 2018 to 2021, said Beijing does not feel threatened by these developments. "In fact, it probably views them as useful for its posturing and policies toward the U.S., South Korea and Japan,” he said.
At a U.N. Security Council meeting on November 27, U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield said Pyongyang's satellite launch, which uses prohibited ballistic missile technology, is part of an effort to “advance its nuclear weapons delivery system.”
Ken Gause, senior adversary analytics specialist at the Center for Naval Analyses, said Moscow would be “willing to help” Pyongyang enhance its Hwasong-18 ICBMs.
North Korea on Monday conducted its fifth intercontinental ballistic missile test of the year. The missile was a Hwasong-18 ICBM, North Korea's state-run KCNA said Tuesday. It was the third Hwasong-18 ICBM that Pyongyang has tested after launches in April and July.
Other weapons Pyongyang “desperately” wants are modern fighter aircraft and air defense systems, said Gary Samore, former White House coordinator for arms control and weapons of mass destruction during the Obama administration.
Samore said Pyongyang is looking to update its “very antiquated” air defense capabilities “to protect itself against the air superiority advantage” of the U.S. and South Korea.
The arms dealings between North Korea and Russia seem to have solidified when North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visited Russia and met with its leader, President Vladimir Putin, in September.
Putin appeared to nod to indicate Russia’s willingness to help Kim enhance its satellite technology during the September 13 meeting at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Russia’s Amur region.
Kim visited a fighter jet plant in Komsomolsk-on-Amur on September 16 and the Knevichi Airbase and the Pacific Fleet in Vladivostok the next day.
But as early as 2022, Pyongyang had been delivering artillery shells to Russia for its war in Ukraine, according to the White House.
In January, the White House released satellite imagery showing North Korea sending shipments of arms to Russia via railcars the previous November.
The White House released another set of satellite images on October 13 showing more than 1,000 containers of military equipment and ammunition leaving from North Korea's port of Najin.
Evans Revere, acting assistant secretary for East Asia and Pacific Affairs during the George W. Bush administration, said arms deals between Moscow and Pyongyang, which violate sanctions, are a "serious matter."
He continued, “The only question is how substantial and how much of an egregious violation of the U.N. Security Council resolutions.”
