North Korea is likely anticipating Russian technical assistance to perfect its nuclear and missile programs in exchange for sending its troops to support Russia in the Ukraine war, U.S. experts say.
On Wednesday, the U.S. government confirmed for the first time the presence of at least 3,000 North Korean troops in Russia. Last Friday, South Korea's intelligence agency said North Korea had sent 1,500 special forces troops to Russia for training and likely deployment for combat in the war in Ukraine.
Seoul has expressed grave concerns about the development.
"North Korea will expect a generous payoff from Moscow in return for its troop contribution," Hwang Joon-kook, South Korean ambassador to the United Nations, said Monday at a United Nations Security Council Briefing on Ukraine. "It could be either military or financial assistance; it could be nuclear weapons-related technology."
Weapons upgrades
North Korea has recently been more open about showing its nuclear and missile ambitions. State media outlets last month released photos showing leader Kim Jong Un visiting what they said was a uranium enrichment facility.
The Kim regime has exported dozens of ballistic missiles and more than 18,000 containers of munitions and munitions-related material to Russia since its invasion of Ukraine, according to the U.S. State Department.
Bruce Bennett, a senior defense analyst at the Rand Corporation, told VOA Korean on Wednesday that Kim Jong Un is now in a position where he can "leverage Russia to get much more" by deploying his own soldiers to the Ukraine war.
"As they were doing their nuclear tests, they would have discovered that some things didn't work," Bennett said. "I think Kim has got a lot of technology he would like to get from Russia."
Robert Peters, research fellow for nuclear deterrence and missile defense at the Heritage Foundation, said sending in North Korean troops "could be a token of goodwill on the part of Kim," and Kim's expectation would be that "the quid pro quo is Russian technical assistance."
"The ultimate goal for Kim is a revitalized alliance with Russia that helps North Korea catch up its missile program and its nuclear program with those in the West," Peters told VOA Korean Tuesday on the phone. "I think that's part of his game."
Peters added that Kim could ask Russian President Vladimir Putin to provide technical assistance for effective miniaturization of nuclear warheads that could go on the tip of intercontinental ballistic missiles, or ICBMs, targeting the United States.
Sung-Yoon Lee, a fellow with the Wilson Center's Indo-Pacific Program, told VOA Korean in an email that he believes Russia likely promised "to provide Pyongyang with sensitive nuclear technology like nuclear-powered submarines, military satellites, and ICBM reentry into the earth's atmosphere" in return for North Korea sending troops to the war in Ukraine.
Economic benefits
Another benefit for North Korea is that its troops might be paid in hard currency that can be exchanged internationally.
"The financial benefits from this initial deployment may seem relatively small, but they are comparatively important for North Korea," Troy Stangarone, director of the Center for Korean History and Public Policy at Wilson Center, told VOA Korean via email Thursday.
"If Russia is compensating North Korea at the same rate as new Russian recruits, we could expect Pyongyang to earn a little less than $10 million a month from the 3,000 troops that are reported to have already been deployed."
Stangarone says that amount would be equal to about 40% of North Korea's legal exports to China over the course of a full year. China is North Korea's main trading partner, with some studies saying China makes up as much as 95% of North Korea's total trade.
Robert Abrams, a retired U.S. Army four-star general who served as commander of U.S. Forces Korea from 2018 to 2021, said the deployment of North Korean soldiers will not be a military game changer for Russia. But, he said, it shows "the depth of commitment by Kim Jong Un to be a strategic partner of Russia."
"Russia is losing 10,000 soldiers about every 10 days, so this deployment of 10,000 North Korean soldiers will not noticeably change the outcome," Abrams told VOA Korean via email Wednesday.
"However, this deployment of North Korean soldiers has significant symbolism for both North Korea and Russia; this is an obvious outcome of the recent North Korea-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership agreement."
Putin and Kim signed their partnership treaty in June, vowing to challenge the U.S.-led world order.
The new treaty mandates Russia and North Korea to immediately provide military assistance using all available means if either of them is attacked by a third country.
Putin did not deny the presence of North Korean soldiers in Russia during a Thursday press conference at the BRICS summit in the Russian city of Kazan.
"We have never doubted at all that the North Korean leadership takes our agreements seriously," Putin said. "What and how we will do within the framework of this article [of the agreement] is our business."
