Taiwanese voters handed Taiwan’s pro-sovereignty ruling Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP, a historic victory in the island’s presidential election over the weekend, despite pressure from China.
While several democratic countries around the world congratulated DPP’s President-elect Lai Ching-te for his victory Saturday, Beijing claimed the election outcome doesn’t reflect the mainstream public opinion in Taiwan and emphasized that Taiwan remains China’s internal affair.
The United States, European Union, United Kingdom and Canada all congratulated the DPP for the win, with a U.S. State Department spokesperson praising Taiwan's people for “demonstrating the strength” of the island’s robust democratic system.
In response, China’s foreign ministry characterized Washington’s message as a violation of the One China principle and said the basic fact that Taiwan is part of China will never change.
China considers Taiwan a wayward province and has never ruled out using force to take full control.
“The Taiwan question is at the very core of China’s core interests and the first red line that must not be crossed in China-U.S. relations,” said an unnamed Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson in a statement, urging Washington not to use the “Taiwan question” to contain China.
Hitting back at Beijing’s claim over Taiwan, the island’s foreign ministry said China’s comments are inconsistent with the international perception and “contrary to the expectation of the global democratic community” as well as “the will of the Taiwanese people.”
“This kind of rhetoric is not worth refuting,” the ministry said in a statement.
With the DPP winning a third consecutive presidential term, some analysts say Taiwan is likely to continue to deepen ties with the U.S. and other like-minded democracies while Beijing may further increase pressure on Taipei.
“The messages from Washington show that Taiwan is an important ally to the U.S., and I think both sides will further deepen ties in the next four years,” Chen Fang-yu, a political scientist at Soochow University in Taiwan, told VOA by phone.
Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry announced Sunday that a U.S. delegation including former U.S. national security adviser Stephen Hadley and former Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg, arrived in Taipei on Sunday for a three-day visit. The delegation is expected to meet Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, government officials and other political figures during the visit.
While U.S.-Taiwan ties will remain robust, some experts think Beijing will maintain the same amount of pressure on Taiwan, especially at a time when the island is expected to be governed under a divided government over the next four years. Following Saturday’s election, no political party secured a majority in the legislature, which some analysts say may weaken the DPP’s hold on power for the next four years.
“Beijing will less likely extend the olive branch toward the next DPP government,” Wen-Ti Sung, a political scientist at the Australian National University, told VOA by phone.
In his view, since the DPP no longer has a majority in the legislature, the Chinese government may think the next Taiwanese government’s hold on power is “delicate enough” that they can maintain a high level of pressure on Taipei. “This means the continued cross-strait tension seems to be in the offing,” Sung added.
Ahead of Saturday’s election, the Chinese government had repeatedly characterized the election as a choice between “war and peace” and criticized Taiwan’s new president-elect as a “troublemaker” who spreads “Taiwan independence” remarks.
To maintain a high level of pressure on Taiwan, Beijing in recent weeks unleashed a series of measures to influence Taiwan’s election, conducting military maneuvers in areas near the island and imposing targeted sanctions on certain Taiwanese products.
Some analysts think Beijing will continue to exert pressure on Taiwan but the effect of some of their measures, such as military maneuvers and economic coercion, may be limited. “Regarding the gray zone operations, I think Taiwan’s population has more or less normalized it,” Ian Chong, a political scientist at the National University of Singapore, told VOA by phone.
When it comes to coercive economic measures, Chong thinks China is only targeting commodities that won’t harm its economic interests. “If Beijing really wanted to put pain on Taiwan, they would stop electronic imports and semiconductor imports,” he said. “But they are not going to do that since it would hurt their economy.”
Despite the limited effect of China’s military and economic measures, Chong thinks Beijing is likely going to start forcing Taiwanese politicians, especially those with business interests in China, to toe the line mandated by the Chinese government.
“I’m sure Beijing will try to find new ways to put pressure on Taiwan, and they will try to pressure the Lai administration in the next year to see where they can force him into making mistakes,” he said.
Since all three political parties failed to secure a majority in the legislature, Chen at Soochow University said the DPP will likely face obstacles when it comes to policy implementation. “Many important policies and personnel appointments may be blocked by opposition parties in the new legislature,” Chen told VOA.
Apart from focusing on negotiating with opposition parties, Chen thinks the incoming administration led by Lai also needs to reestablish a connection with civil society, especially at a time when public opinion isn’t supportive of the DPP.
“The DPP needs to create dialogue with civil society and try to use public opinion as a foundation to implement policies,” he said.
Among different policy platforms, Chen thinks the two opposition parties, the China-friendly Kuomintang and the Taiwan People’s Party, may try to make it tougher for the DPP to push through key policies related to Taiwan’s bilateral relations, such as the U.S.-Taiwan Initiative on 21st Century Trade and U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.
“The split government situation will test the Lai administration’s wisdom, such as how to negotiate with opposition parties and how to work with civil society groups,” he said. “It’s important for them to learn how to properly explain policy implementation to the public.”
The incoming president takes office in May and will succeed Tsai Ing-wen, who has been in office since 2016.
VOA’s Nike Ching contributed to this report.
