Myanmar's military has called on ethnic armed groups and anti-junta resistance forces to end their armed struggle and participate in proposed national elections. While this call to cease fighting was quickly rejected by opposition forces, it marked a significant development in Myanmar's three-year civil war.
Ye Myo Hein, a senior expert on Myanmar at the United States Institute of Peace, said the military's call to cease fighting, made public in a statement Thursday, was aimed to appease China.
"The SAC [State Administration Council] is making overtures to Beijing," he posted on social media, pointing out recent statements in which the military referred to China as Myanmar's closest ally.
The statement posted by the SAC, Myanmar's military regime, proposed that ethnic groups, including the People's Defense Forces (PDF) — the armed wing of the anti-junta movement — resolve political issues through peaceful means and electoral participation.
Though the SAC did not mention the National Unity Government (NUG), the PDF is largely aligned with the shadow government formed by former lawmakers and junta opponents. The SAC argued that the ongoing conflict has caused significant losses to the country.
"Considering the losses of the state due to armed struggle and terrorism, ethnic armed organizations and PDF terrorists are invited to contact the state to resolve political issues through party politics," the SAC stated.
Opposition response
Opposition leaders swiftly dismissed the military's appeal to cease fighting.
Sui Khar, foreign minister of the Chinland government, which controls much of Chin state in western Myanmar, and vice chairman of the NUG-affiliated Chin National Front, told VOA the military's statement was not a genuine invitation, as it was limited to political parties and elections.
"It sounded like they were forcing others to join their own agenda," Sui Khar said.
The NUG also rejected the junta's invitation, calling it a ploy to create disunity among resistance forces, and vowed to continue the Spring Revolution — the resistance movement against military rule — and to work toward establishing a federal democratic union.
Soe Thuya Zaw, a commander of the Mandalay PDF, described the offer as deceptive. "It's like hanging a goat's head but selling dog meat," he wrote on Facebook, using a Myanmar proverb to highlight the military's history of broken promises.
Escalation in Lashio
The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), an ethnic armed group with close ties to China, has frustrated the military by capturing key territories along the Myanmar-China border. Despite the junta's attempts to negotiate, ongoing airstrikes cast doubt on the prospects for peace.
On Friday, fighter jets bombed Lashio, a major city in northern Shan state and a critical trade route to China, currently under MNDAA control. According to the MNDAA, the strikes targeted civilian areas, killing two people and injuring six.
"They talk about resolving political problems through dialogue, yet continue bombing. So, the offer is impossible," said Tu Maung Nyo, a writer and political analyst based on the Thailand-Myanmar border. "The military is calling for negotiations because they can't win on the battlefield. It's just a way out of a crisis."
China's role in path forward
Analysts say Beijing has been pressuring both Myanmar's SAC and ethnic armed groups to stabilize the situation, primarily to protect its interests along the shared border and safeguard investments. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit to Myanmar earlier this year signaled Beijing's desire for a stable Myanmar under military control without prolonged conflict.
"China wants stability," said Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar relations expert based in China. "Their top priorities are ensuring bombs don't fall near their territory, preventing refugees from crossing into China, and protecting Chinese investments in Myanmar. China also wants to ensure the safety of its people in Myanmar."
But the situation remains complicated. While China provides political and economic backing to the junta, analysts argue that it also covertly supports some ethnic armed groups along its border. The MNDAA, for example, is widely believed to receive Chinese support. The military's recent warmth toward China is seen by many as a survival tactic.
Tu Maung Nyo said the stakes are high for China. Beijing seeks stability but recognizes that as long as the SAC remains in power, peace may be elusive.
Although China continues to support the military, it is likely applying pressure behind the scenes for a resolution, especially as regional powers, including the Quad nations — Australia, India, Japan and the United States — express concern over Myanmar's future.
"China may even use its leverage by withholding weapons sales or cutting off the military's jet fuel supply," Hla Kyaw Zaw said, noting that such actions would align with recent calls from the Quad members.
Tu Maung Nyo said outside influences have always played a role in Myanmar, which occupies a strategic position on the Indian Ocean.
"The events in Myanmar, from the start of the civil war to today, have always seen the participation of major powers. While some may call it interference, I see it as inevitable participation," he said. "But now, the military seems to have a big problem deciding which side to rely on."
