Following weeks of intense campaigning and numerous rallies, more than 19 million voters across Taiwan headed to the polls on Saturday to determine who will be the next president to lead the democratic island amid heightened tension across the Taiwan Strait.
While Taiwan's presidential election is traditionally a referendum on its relationship with China, a wider range of issues are on the agenda, including social and economic issues such as residential justice and low-wage problems for young people. This situation makes determining which candidate has the better chance to win the election a tricky task.
"It's hard to pinpoint one particular issue as the deciding factor for this election," Sarah Liu, an expert on Taiwan politics at the University of Edinburgh, told VOA by phone. In her view, this year's presidential election won't be as clear-cut as the election in 2020, during which the monthslong anti-extradition bill protest in Hong Kong exacerbated Taiwanese voters' concerns about China's influence over Taiwan.
Despite the more complex nature of this election, Liu said cross-strait relations remain a salient issue in the hotly contested, three-way presidential race. During the last campaign rallies on Friday, presidential candidates from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and China-friendly opposition party Kuomintang (KMT) — Taiwan Vice President Lai Ching-te and former police chief Hou You-ih, respectively — doubled down on their rhetoric emphasizing cross-strait relations. Whereas the third-party candidate, doctor-turned-mayor Ko Wen-je from the Taiwan People's Party, tried to present himself as an alternative for young voters.
At the pre-election rally in New Taipei City, the DPP's Lai urged Taiwanese to use their votes to defend the island's democratic way of life and promised to help Taiwan navigate the turbulent international situation.
"If Taiwan moves closer to China again, Taiwan will lose its edge, and foreign investment in Taiwan will likely be slowed or stopped," he told tens of thousands of jubilant supporters at the scene. "Taiwan must win this battle for itself and secure the first victory of global democracy."
A few kilometers away, the Kuomintang's Hou reiterated the slogan that the election is a choice between "war and peace" and promised to prevent war from happening across the Taiwan Strait.
"If Lai were elected, the Taiwan Strait would probably be plunged into unrest," he told tens of thousands of supporters in New Taipei City, adding that he firmly opposed Taiwan independence as well as China's proposal to reunify with Taiwan under the "one country, two systems" model and vowed to safeguard Taiwan's interests.
Presenting himself as an alternative to Lai and Hou, Ko called on his supporters, which included many young people, to use their votes to prove that the Taiwan People's Party is "the most major force in Taiwan" rather than just a third force in Taiwan politics. "Don't give up," he told tens of thousands of his supporters, urging them to save their futures.
Faced with competing visions put forward by the three presidential candidates, Taiwanese voters also have different views on what's the best path forward for Taiwan. Some DPP supporters told VOA that Lai is the only candidate capable of safeguarding Taiwan's democracy and future because Hong Kong's experience helped them realize the risks that come with attempts to build closer ties with China.
"I don't want Taiwan to be like Hong Kong, so we need to come out to vote for the DPP," Ashley Hsu, a 36-year-old secretary, told VOA in Taipei. "I think Lai's cross-strait policies can help Taiwan maintain its sovereignty and dignity."
On the other hand, some KMT supporters criticized the DPP for pushing Taiwan to the brink of war with China as well as damaging cross-strait trade relations. "Since Taiwan and China are like brothers, Beijing used to offer us a lot of trade benefits," Lin Tsung-Hong, a 76-year-old retiree, told VOA at a KMT campaign rally in Taipei.
"Instead of being thankful for Beijing's generosity, the DPP tries to taunt the Chinese government, causing Beijing to decide to suspend all the trade benefits for Taiwanese commodities," he said.
While DPP and KMT supporters view cross-strait relations as the decisive factor in this election, some TPP voters told VOA that they hoped to find a new choice in Taiwan's political landscape after years of "vicious political fights" between the DPP and KMT.
"The TPP represents a new possibility for young Taiwanese voters like me who are fed up by the ideological battle between the two major parties," Winnie Lee, a 23-year-old student in New Taipei City, told VOA in a written response.
As the world awaits Taiwan's election outcome, Liu from the University of Edinburgh said Taiwanese voters' choice could determine whether Taiwan continues to deepen relations with like-minded democracies around the world, including the U.S., or re-establish close relations with China through trade and economic exchanges.
"If Lai were to win, he would continue to build allyship with democracies and preserve Taiwan's democracy, freedom and autonomy," she told VOA, adding that Beijing may view his victory as a threat.
On the contrary, if Hou helped KMT return to power for the first time in eight years, Liu thinks Taiwan would likely become more dependent on China. "Beijing may have more dictating power to decide the future of Taiwan," she said.
Despite the amount of global attention on the implications of the Taiwan election, some Taiwanese voters say all they care about is whether the new leader can ensure the democratic island maintains its peaceful and stable way of life.
"To me, nothing matters more than a leader who can listen to the people's demands and prioritize our interests," Shuling Hsieh, a 47-year-old engineer, told VOA in Taipei.
