The pledge by Lithuania’s new government to reset diplomatic relations with China after Beijing downgraded bilateral ties with the country in 2021 is facing challenges even before it has begun.
Analysts say Lithuania’s recent decision to expel three of China’s diplomats and the damage done to two data cables in the Baltic Sea – as well as questions about the role a Chinese cargo ship may have played – are complicating that effort.
China downgraded ties with Lithuania after the previous government agreed to open a representative office for Taiwan in the capital, Vilnius, in 2021 that used the English word “Taiwanese” in its name. Beijing bristles at any moves that give democratically governed Taiwan added international recognition.
Most of Taiwan’s overseas representative offices have Taipei in their name.
Balancing act
Tomas Janeliunas, an international relations professor at Vilnius University, says Lithuania’s new government will have to play a balancing act when it comes to relations with China because each change in the geopolitical landscape can have an impact.
“When a new tension point breaks out, Lithuania will have no choice but to skip this balancing policy and return to the more aggressive diplomacy toward China,” he told VOA in a phone interview this week.
Following its parliamentary elections in October, Lithuania’s new prime minister, Gintautas Paluckas, vowed to restore full diplomatic relations with China without “humiliating” Lithuania and “falling to our knees and begging for anything.”
In an interview with the Baltic News Service on Nov. 1, Paluckas said that it is certainly an aspiration to have normal relations with China.
Relations with China "will not be very rosy," with the two sides arguing about economic and protectionist measures, but the European Union "is trying to maintain diplomatic relations,” he said.
“We are a sovereign country, we have no dependency on China, and nobody is trying to create one, but diplomatic relations are valuable. And one truly needs to have them,” he said.
Zhao Junjie, a senior research fellow at the Institute of European Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told Chinese state-run tabloid Global Times that Paluckas’ comments show the new Lithuania government is “turning to more rational, pragmatic and sustainable ways” to handle relations with China.
New government’s differing views
Despite the new prime minister’s stated intention to resume diplomatic exchanges with Beijing, there are also differing views on how Lithuania should handle relations with China within the new government.
The Lithuanian government’s latest four-year plan, which the country's Parliament approved Dec. 12, calls China “a growing challenge” to the Baltic state’s foreign and security policies. The plan also pledges to develop economic and cultural ties with Taiwan, which China views as an inseparable part of its territory.
In an interview with Baltic News Service on Dec. 3, Lithuania’s new foreign minister, Kestutis Budrys, said China bears the responsibility of initiating steps to restore diplomatic relations with Lithuania.
“It was not Lithuania that decided to downgrade the level of diplomatic representation and initiated the change of its form altogether,” Budrys said, adding that all sides across Lithuania’s political spectrum support the restoration of diplomatic ties with China if the Baltic state’s national security is ensured.
Meanwhile, Lithuania’s minister of economy and innovation, Lukas Savickas, said in an interview on December 12 that the previous government’s position on China had been “out of line” and that Lithuanian businesses have interests in the Chinese market.
Experts say since the new government has explicitly presented China as a foreign policy and security challenge to Lithuania, Vilnius is unlikely to fundamentally change its policies toward China.
While “the previous government, which pursued the so-called values-based foreign policy, only vaguely mentioned China in its program, the new [government’s] program sets the boundaries in this regard much clearer,” said Raigirdas Boruta, an associate expert at Vilnius University’s Eastern Europe Studies Center.
Since the new government has pledged to keep developing economic and cultural ties with Taiwan, Boruta told VOA that Lithuania is unlikely to make fundamental changes to its relationship with China under the center-left-led administration.
Aggressive actor
Other recent events have also added new sources of tension to the bilateral relationship.
In late November, a Chinese bulk carrier carrying Russian fertilizers, Yi Peng 3, was suspected of severing two data cables in the Baltic Sea, prompting investigators from several European countries, including Sweden, Lithuania and Finland, to surround the ship and seek to conduct a thorough investigation.
Additionally, Lithuania announced the expulsion of three Chinese diplomats after declaring them “personae non gratae” on November 29. The Lithuanian Foreign Ministry said the Chinese diplomats violated the Vienna Convention and Lithuanian legislation but did not provide further details about the expulsion.
Beijing condemned Lithuania’s expulsion of the Chinese diplomats, describing the move as “provocative.”
“China reserves the right to take countermeasures against Lithuania,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a statement released on December 2.
Janeliunas said these events have hardened the Lithuanian public’s impression of China as an aggressive actor in the Baltic region, making it difficult for the new government to reduce tension between the two countries.
If the government “talks about softening Lithuania’s attitude toward China, it could trigger some harsh reactions from society or some media outlets, as they question why the ruling Social Democrats are considering such a move,” he said.
