Israeli airstrikes against Hezbollah are driving tens of thousands of Lebanese into Iraq — with more expected as the security situation deteriorates. The sudden influx is generating political concerns, especially in Iraq’s volatile Kirkuk region.
Iraqi officials say that as of October 9, about 8,000 Lebanese refugees have entered Iraq.
Kirkuk, a multi-ethnic province contested by Kurds, Arabs and Turkmens, is already burdened with unresolved demographic and political tensions. The situation has been acute since many internally displaced Iraqis from the war against Islamic State have settled in Kirkuk rather than return to their original provinces.
A senior Kurdish official there expressed apprehension that the arrival of Lebanese refugees could further complicate the area’s delicate demographic balance. Many of the refugees are coming from overwhelmingly Shiite areas of Lebanon where Hezbollah is most influential.
“The arrival of Lebanese refugees in Kirkuk must be treated with caution,” the Kurdish official, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, told VOA. “Although the Iraqi government has made the decision to accept the refugees, the provinces are required to comply, but this must be done carefully.”
Demographic risk?
The official highlighted the precedent of Egyptian workers brought in prior to the U.S. overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003, who never returned to their home country. He suggested that a similar pattern could emerge with the Lebanese refugees.
On Sunday, the High Security Committee of Kirkuk, led by Rebwar Taha, convened to discuss preparations for handling the arrival of Lebanese refugees if they migrate to the province.
"Kirkuk itself is full of unresolved conflicts between Kurds, Arabs, and Turkmens. If the arrival of these refugees is not handled properly, the already accumulated issues will intensify," the Kurdish official warned.
While Kurdish officials voice their concerns, Shiite factions with close ties to Hezbollah advocate for welcoming the refugees, emphasizing humanitarian obligations.
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' Al Sudani issued a letter on October 10 calling the Lebanese newcomers “guests, not refugees.” He has ordered officials to “facilitate entry into Iraq and humanitarian assistance."
Sunni Arabs also have raised concerns. Mahmoud Zaidan, a Sunni leader in Kirkuk, stressed that while humanitarian efforts are necessary, “The government must carefully evaluate the situation, as the arrival of more refugees could exacerbate feelings of marginalization among Iraqis, particularly those displaced by the war with ISIS.”
The timing of the refugee crisis coincides with Iraq’s preparations for a national census, which further complicates the situation. Observers suggest that Shiite political influence is driving the government’s decision to welcome the refugees.
This story originated in VOA’s Kurdish service.
