Shunned by the West for over three years, Afghanistan's Taliban scored a diplomatic victory of sorts this week when the small Central Asian nation of Kyrgyzstan quietly removed the group from its list of banned terrorist organizations.
The move underscores warming ties between the Taliban, in power since August 2021, and the countries of Central Asia. While the United States has led an international campaign to deny the Taliban government legitimacy, over a dozen regional countries, led by China and Russia, have embraced the self-styled "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan."
"It fits with the broader trend of governments in the region and internationally warming up to the idea of having to work with the Taliban," said Lucas Webber, a senior threat intelligence analyst at Tech Against Terrorism and a research fellow at the Soufan Center. "Generally, there is a recognition that the Taliban is not going anywhere, so you have to work with whoever is ruling Afghanistan for economic and security reasons."
Taliban reaction
The government of Kyrgyzstan, once considered a close U.S. ally in the region, did not publicize its decision to delist the Taliban, but the Taliban's Foreign Ministry quickly seized on it as the latest breakthrough in its regional diplomacy.
"Aligning with actions of other countries, the step taken by Kyrgyzstan signifies a growing political recognition of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan on both regional and international levels, and removes a barrier to strengthening bilateral relations between the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan & other countries," it said Thursday in a statement.
The Taliban, which first ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001 before waging a 20-year insurgency, has appeared on various international terrorist lists over the years. While the U.S. has not officially labeled them a "foreign terrorist organization," it considers members "specially designated global terrorists."
Kyrgyzstan is the second Central Asian country to delist the Taliban in recent months. In December, Kazakhstan took the group off its own terrorist list as part of its growing economic engagement with the Taliban. In May, Russia said it, too, was considering such a move as it decides whether to recognize the Taliban's government.
Although no country has extended official recognition to the Taliban, more than a dozen, including all six of Afghanistan's neighbors, have allowed Taliban diplomats to take charge of Afghan embassies or consulates. Among them, three have accepted accredited Taliban envoys: China in January, followed by Kazakhstan and the United Arab Emirates last month.
In pursuing ties with the Taliban, Central Asian countries are taking their cues from Russia and China, both of which have deepened their engagement with Afghanistan's de facto government in recent years.
"They're pursuing practical policies, and they're also given a kind of umbrella by two of the major great powers — Russia and China — who are working with the Taliban quite closely," Webber said.
A 'necessary evil'
In a report on the Taliban's regional diplomacy, analysts at the International Crisis Group noted how various countries pursue disparate agendas.
Afghanistan neighbors such as Iran, Pakistan and Uzbekistan view dealing with the Taliban as a "necessary evil if they are to address core concerns," the analysts wrote. Those concerns include extremist threats as well as trade. For Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, a planned project designed to carry surplus power to Afghanistan and Pakistan is a priority.
Regional powers China, India and Russia use engagement to contain "any spillover" from Afghanistan, the analysts said. Russia regards the Taliban as a bulwark against the Islamic State's local branch. And while China has signed lucrative investment deals with Afghanistan, it, too, is motivated by fear of terrorism.
Countries farther afield, such as the UAE and Qatar, aim "to challenge the Taliban's Islamic exceptionalism but [are] also spurred by the need to balance their own regional rivalries," they wrote.
Strategic interests vs. human rights
Significantly, none of the countries that have established diplomatic ties with the Taliban were classified as "free" by Freedom House, the freedom and democracy advocacy group. All but two are labeled "not free," according to a VOA review. Only Pakistan and Turkey are designated as "partly free."
This suggests that the Taliban can ward off international isolation if enough countries prioritize strategic interests over human rights and democracy, according to experts.
While human rights haven't always been a U.S. foreign policy priority, the Biden administration, along with its Western allies, have made Taliban recognition contingent on respect for human rights, women's rights and an inclusive government.
"Given the issues related to the treatment of women and other human rights issues, it's more difficult for liberal democratic governments to recognize and work with the Taliban than it is for less democratic governments or nondemocratic governments, where they can be more practical in terms of pursuing their national interests solely and then working with the Taliban on this basis," Webber said.
The implications for Afghanistan's future and U.S. diplomacy are immense. Increased political and economic engagement could embolden the Taliban to keep their harsh policies, such as their ban on girls' education after sixth grade, experts say.
It could also force Washington to reassess its dual policy of engaging and isolating the Taliban. Since the Taliban takeover, U.S. and European diplomats have held ongoing talks with Taliban officials in Qatar, where they maintain their Afghanistan embassy operations.
Biden administration officials have also reportedly weighed working with the Taliban to combat the Afghan-based Islamic State Khorasan terror group, even while refusing to establish diplomatic ties.
"There is going to be pressure as more governments recognize that this kind of resistance to working more closely with the Taliban doesn't hold up," Webber said. "But it will be hard to do so publicly and officially, given the humanitarian violations and problems that we see with the Taliban government."
The Biden administration defends its Afghanistan policy. Asked about the Taliban's growing diplomatic footprint, a State Department spokesperson noted that no country has said that it recognizes the Taliban as the government of Afghanistan.
"The Taliban seek recognition as Afghanistan's government," the spokesperson said in a statement to VOA. "The United States and the international community have been clear with the Taliban that our ability to take meaningful steps toward normalization will be based on the Taliban's own actions."
These include respecting the rights of women and minorities, fulfilling anti-terror obligations and starting a political process for inclusive governance, the spokesperson said.
