U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is in Sochi meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minster Sergei Lavrov.
The last time Kerry met with Putin was two years ago to announce an international conference aimed at stemming the spiraling bloodshed in Syria.
Syria is still part of the latest talks, but somewhat overshadowed by two other issues - the crisis over Ukraine and relations with Iran.
Putin may be persona non grata in many Western capitals these days thanks to the annexation of Crimea and the Russian-backed insurgency in eastern Ukraine. Still, there’s no getting around the fact that Moscow’s influence, while diminished from Soviet days, is still important for many of the world’s tangled problems, analysts said.
“This is a recognition that Russia still has a major role to play in these” places, said Angela Stent, a former National Intelligence Council officer who now teaches at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. “We may not get full cooperation, but we at least want Russia to not obstruct on these issues.”
The announcement that Kerry would meet with Putin came from the U.S. State Department Monday morning.
“This trip is part of our ongoing effort to maintain direct lines of communication with senior Russian officials and to ensure U.S. views are clearly conveyed,” the statement said.
A Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, confirmed Putin's participation in the Sochi talks. He told Russia's Interfax news agency that international sanctions on Russia, linked to its involvement with separatists in eastern Ukraine, are not on Russia's agenda. But he said if the subject comes up, the Russian side will "express [its] position."
In a statement published Monday in Russian mentioning the meeting with Lavrov, the Foreign Ministry also took a swipe at the United States.
“At the current time, Russian-American relations are experiencing a difficult period, caused by the purposefully unfriendly actions of Washington,” the ministry said.
Ukraine
On Monday, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has again accused Moscow of violating the cease-fire in the Ukrainian conflict by continuing to supply pro-Russian separatists with military aid.
Stoltenberg and NATO military chief U.S. General Philip Breedlove have repeatedly accused the Kremlin of lending support to pro-Russian rebels battling Ukraine forces in eastern Ukraine.
Speaking Monday in Brussels, Stoltenberg described the Russian buildup since a cease-fire in February as "a steady flow of heavy equipment, tanks, artillery, ammunition, air defense systems and a lot of training." Last month, in a similar critique, he said the ongoing buildup -- including at that time more than 1,000 pieces of heavy equipment -- "gives reason for great concern" and would allow rebels to launch new military offensives in the east with little advanced warning.
Moscow has repeatedly denied the NATO claims. In late April, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu countered by accusing the U.S. military of providing training in urban fighting to Ukrainian national guardsmen near the border.
Isolation, sanctions
For the past year, where Russia’s been concerned, isolation and sanctions have been the order of the day for the United States and the European Union to punish the Kremlin for its actions in Ukraine.
Washington and its European allies very publicly snubbed Putin this weekend by not sending leaders to Moscow for the 70th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany.
Yet, one day after Red Square was filled with thousands of marching soldiers, advanced weaponry and triumphant rhetoric, German Chancellor Angela Merkel was in Moscow meeting with Putin, scolding him for “the criminal and illegal annexation of Crimea and the warfare in eastern Ukraine [which] has led to a serious setback for this cooperation.”
From Washington’s side, Syria’s chaos may offer one way to rekindle cooperation. The civil war, now in its fourth year, grinds on, with a death toll surpassing 220,000, according to United Nations estimates, and hundreds of thousands of refugees. The conflict continues to pull in radical Islamic fighters and fuels the Islamic State militant group that holds swaths of territory in Iraq and Syria.
The Kremlin’s patronage for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad also continues, with Russia eager to retain access to the Mediterranean port of Tartus for its naval vessels. Moscow fears that the battle-hardened Chechen fighters who have helped fuel the Islamic State’s advances will return to restart the now-dormant insurgency in Russia’s North Caucasus.
Iran
Add to the calculus Iran, which is both a stalwart backer of Assad and a fickle ally of Moscow. Russia has supplied lucrative nuclear technology to Tehran and recently announced the sale of advanced S-300 air defense missiles.
If anything, Kerry’s visit may signal new momentum for a political resolution, particularly if the Russians push Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to agree to some power sharing arrangement with the opposition, said Salman Shaikh, director of the Brookings Doha Center, a think-tank in Qatar.
“The Russians have been at it for a while,” Shaikh said. Kerry’s meeting “is an indication that the United States is getting more serious about a diplomatic track, and it’s timely.
“It may be a small glimmer, but it’s the basis to have a small conversation, and I do believe that Russians have been pressuring the Assad regime to allow some sort of power sharing,” he said.
Cooperation
Even before the crisis in Ukraine erupted last year, Washington’s ties with Russia had been moving away from the “reset” that the Obama administration had sought in the wake of the 2008 Russian-Georgia war.
At the same time, both U.S. and Russian officials emphasized overlapping interests: fighting terrorism and Islamic extremism; preventing nuclear proliferation; stemming the illegal drug trade.
Syria’s misery brought the two sides closer: Washington and Moscow collaborated to destroy Syria’s chemical weapons arsenal. Kerry's meeting with Putin in Moscow two years ago was to announce an international conference to try to end the war. The conference, held in February 2014, ended up foundering over the issue of whether a transitional administration in Syria would include Assad.
Syria aside, Monday’s meeting may be a broader effort to reestablish working communication since bilateral ties have been driven to a dangerous low by Ukraine, said Thomas Graham, a former Russia officer with the U.S. National Security Council.
Kerry is likely bringing some sort of message— oral or written— from Obama, to be conveyed to Putin, Graham said. It’s also significant that the meeting comes two days after Merkel met with Putin, he said.
“Look, you have to talk to other countries even if you have serious issues with them,” said Graham, now managing director at Kissinger Associates, a New York-based consultancy group. “How are you going manage this relationship if you’re not talking to the Russians when everyone else is talking to them?”
“A normal relationship doesn’t mean that you agree on everything,” he said.
In the end, Kerry’s meeting likely signals pragmatism on the part of the Obama administration, analysts said.
The Kremlin is looking for a way to move forward from Ukraine and re-engage with the White House. Cooperating on Syria and Iran benefits both sides, and it provides the Obama administration badly need help in untangling nettlesome foreign policy crises.
“We’ve always said we’re open to an off ramp,” Stent said. “I guess this does qualify as an off ramp.”
According to the State Department Kerry’s trip is meant to shift the focus to diplomatic dialogue.
“This is part of our ongoing effort to maintain open lines of communication on all of these issues where we agree, where we disagree, and they thought this was a good time to meet,” said spokeswoman Marie Harf during a briefing on Monday.
“We’ve always said where there are areas where we can work together we will,” she said, “But also to discuss ones where we very strongly disagree, like in Ukraine.”
Both sides are working with other global partners to pursue an Iran nuclear agreement in the coming weeks, but there is doubt about how much progress they will make on Ukraine and Syria, where Russia has supported the government of President Bashar al-Assad.
“Secretary Kerry goes there with every intention of having productive discussions, but there’s a lot of skepticism of the potential for new movement and real agreement on the most contentious,” said Stephen Sestanovich, former U.S. ambassador-at-large for the former Soviet Union and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
“On the one hand, there is an interest in demonstrating that where possible the United States and Russia will try to work together,” he said. “At the same time, there is a very strong interest in conveying that if Russia remains uncooperative on questions like Syria and even more in Ukraine that the possibility for dialogue won’t produce much.”
While in Russia, Sestanovich said Kerry will have a greater case than in the past on Syria because of increased American support for groups battling extremists and U.S. efforts in recent months to build a coalition to help restore stability in the region.
“As American assistance to the groups that the United States favors in Syria ramps up, it becomes more credible to go to the Russians and say, 'Here’s what we’re doing, how can you adjust?' ”
After his meeting in Russia, Kerry will travel to Antalya, Turkey to consult with Allies and partners gathered for a NATO meeting of foreign ministers on Wednesday.
Mike Eckel and Mary Alice Salinas contributed to this report.
