Japanese voters head to the polls Sunday for an upper house election, just two days after the assassination of the country’s former prime minister, Shinzo Abe.
Politicians mostly stopped campaigning but decided to proceed with the vote after the Friday shooting death of Abe, one of the most influential figures in modern Japanese politics.
The suspect, identified as Tetsuya Yamagami, a 41-year-old former member of the country’s Self-Defense Forces, was detained immediately after the shooting.
Police said he used a homemade gun and believed Abe to be a part of a religious group he blamed for his mother’s financial ruin.
Police recovered more guns at the man’s home. The suspect told police he made the guns by wrapping steel pipes together with tape, according to Japan’s public broadcaster NHK.
The assassination shocked Japan, which has strict gun laws and almost no gun violence. The country has not seen an assassination in decades.
Campaign, vote go on
Security was tightened at many campaign events following the shooting, raising the prospect of permanent changes to Japan’s very accessible and intimate campaign environment.
At the time of the shooting, Abe was speaking at a campaign event on the street outside a train station in the western city of Nara. Videos show the suspect casually walked up to him, without being stopped by security.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has said the election must proceed, insisting the country must “protect democracy without yielding to violence.”
It is not clear what impact the shooting will have on the election, which will decide the makeup of Japan’s House of Councillors, the upper house of the country’s National Diet.
Opinion polls suggest the rising cost of living is the main concern for Japanese voters. Like many countries, Japan has seen skyrocketing food and fuel prices.
But analysts say the vote’s outcome could also have a major impact on Japan’s defense strategy.
Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) aims to roughly double defense spending to 2% or more of gross domestic product over the next five years. The party would also like to revise the country’s pacifist constitution, which has not been changed since coming into effect in 1947.
Abe's legacy
Abe, who resigned as prime minister in 2020 but remained politically influential, was a leading voice urging the country to adopt a more conventional defense posture.
Under Kishida, Japan has pursued a more assertive foreign policy. Specifically, he has placed Japan on the front lines of a Western-led effort to pressure Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
Although polls suggest the Japanese public is broadly supportive of his bolder approach, voters remain deeply averse to the country becoming involved in military conflicts. Many prefer Japan to focus on improving the economy.
Forty-three percent of respondents said the economy is the most important issue deciding their vote, according to an NHK poll late last month. But 15% said foreign policy and security issues were most important, a much higher percentage than typical.
Constitutional question
Before Abe’s assassination, polls suggested Japan’s ruling coalition was on track to win a majority in Sunday’s election.
The results also will be closely watched to determine whether conservatives win enough seats to start the constitutional revision process.
Any constitutional change must be approved by two-thirds of both houses of parliament (pro-revision forces already have a two-thirds majority in the lower house). A revision must also be approved by a majority of voters in a referendum.
Abe’s death could have a major impact on the longer-term debate about Japan’s role in the world, but many observers are reluctant to say his death will necessarily result in a better election outcome for conservatives.
While overseas analysts may assume the assassination will accelerate Japan’s movement toward a tougher defense approach, that’s not necessarily true, according to Lully Miura, a political scientist at the Yamaneko Research Institute in Tokyo.
“Without Shinzo, we don’t have a visible figure to promote this agenda,” she said. “There are not so many guys like Prime Minister Abe.”
