As Indonesia gears up to participate in U.S.-led joint military exercises this month, it agreed at a meeting this week to hold military training with China, a move analysts say points to Indonesia's nonalignment stance regarding the U.S.-China rivalry.
The Indonesian military is preparing to host Super Garuda Shield exercises led by the U.S. with participation by dozens of countries, including Japan, Australia, South Korea, Germany, Singapore and Malaysia. The annual drills will be held in the Indonesian provinces of East Java, West Java and South Sumatra from August 26 to September 5.
In the meantime, senior Indonesian and Chinese officials agreed to hold joint military training and reaffirmed their commitment to boost regional security, among other things, at a meeting Tuesday in Jakarta, according to a statement by the Indonesian Foreign Ministry.
It was the first senior officials' meeting of a joint foreign-defense ministerial dialogue that will be elevated to a ministerial-level meeting during a new Indonesian administration next year. President-elect Prabowo Subianto will begin his term in October.
The two countries agreed to launch a new dialogue when outgoing President Joko Widodo met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in October in Beijing.
"If it takes place next year, the bilateral exercises with the Chinese will reflect Indonesia's pursuit of showcasing its neutrality" based on "bebas and aktif," or "free and active" foreign policy aimed at making it "difficult for any major power to pull Indonesia into its sphere of influence," said Abdul Rahman Yaacob, a research fellow in the Southeast Asia Program at the Lowy Institute.
However, if the exercises with China focus on combat operations and interoperability rather than nontraditional security areas such as piracy and counterterrorism and are conducted in the contested South China Sea, it "will raise red flags for the U.S. and its allies," Yaacob said.
"Indonesia under Prabowo will have to balance many factors when planning exercises with the Chinese, as potential repercussions could be high." The U.S. and its allies, including South Korea, France and Japan, could reconsider a decision to supply the Indonesians with advanced weapons systems, he added.
Indonesia, like other Southeast Asian countries, has been conducting joint drills with both the U.S. and China.
Last year, China sent a naval destroyer and frigate to participate at the invitation of Jakarta in a multilateral naval exercise aimed at fostering cooperation on humanitarian operations and disaster management.
The U.S. Navy, which also participated, described the drills as allowing "exchanges that support multilateral cooperation."
Indonesia's defense cooperation with China is considered underdeveloped, mainly focusing on low-level exercises. But recently, Jakarta expressed its desire to hold more military exercises with China, in addition to ASEAN member states and the U.S.
In an interview with Nikkei Asia in July, Indonesian Army Chief of Staff General Maruli Simanjuntak said the Indonesian army is preparing to conduct joint drills with China that could start next year.
"Indonesia, like most of its neighbors, both seeks pragmatic cooperation with and wants to hedge against the hegemonic ambitions of China," said Gregory Poling, senior fellow and director of the Southeast Asia Program and Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"That also explains why Jakarta would be open to low-level military exercises with China even as it prioritizes its much more robust military relationship with traditional partners like the United States, Japan and Australia.”
The U.S. Navy SEALs and the Indonesian navy's Frogman Forces Command held a joint training exercise in July. The drills have been taking place annually since their bilateral defense talks in 2022.
Andreyka Natalegawa, an associate fellow for the Southeast Asia Program at CSIS, said, "Despite the apparent — and nascent — deepening of Indonesia-China defense ties, the United States remains the primary partner of choice in defense cooperation with Indonesia."
He continued, "The depth, frequency and institutionalization of U.S. bilateral and multilateral exercises with Indonesia remains second to none, and it is highly unlikely that China will supplant the United States' role as Indonesia's primary defense partner of choice in the immediate future."
At their first U.S.-Indonesian senior officials' foreign policy and defense dialogue in October 2023 in Washington, the U.S. reaffirmed its commitment to support Indonesia's defense forces as the country's "largest military engagement partner."
