Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will visit China from Friday to Tuesday for a trip that analysts say aims to repair the rift caused by Rome's withdrawal last year from China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a global infrastructure and transportation plan sometimes called the New Silk Road.
China's foreign ministry said Thursday that during her trip, Meloni would hold talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Qiang and Chairman of China's National People's Congress Standing Committee Zhao Leji.
Italian President Sergio Mattarella plans to visit China in October. Analysts say the trips show that Rome hopes to repair relations damaged when Italy became the first country to pull out of the BRI since it was launched in 2013.
Meloni has long been critical of the partnership, calling the decision to join the BRI a "serious mistake" that had not delivered promised economic benefits to Italy.
Italy is China's fourth-largest trading partner in the European Union, and China is Italy's largest trading partner in Asia, with bilateral trade at $80 billion, mostly Chinese exports to Italy.
Italian data show exports to China reached nearly $18 billion in 2022 from $14 billion in 2019, while Chinese exports to Italy nearly doubled during that same period from more than $34 billion to more than $62 billion.
Despite Meloni's criticism of the BRI, China's state media Global Times on Thursday suggested that the withdrawal from BRI did not reflect her own views.
It quoted Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Institute of European Studies researcher Zhao Junjie saying: "This visit once again demonstrates that Italy's withdrawal from the BRI was not due to a reluctance to cooperate with China or Meloni's own political beliefs, but rather due to the huge pressure from the US and other major Western powers at the time."
Under some pressure from the European Union and the United States, Meloni's new government in December made a low-key exit from the BRI, which was seen as a major blow to Xi's global ambitions and the failure of the BRI in Europe. The Chinese side also kept a low profile and didn't publicly criticize Italy's withdrawal.
Francesco Galietti, adjunct professor of political risk analysis at Rome's Luiss University and co-founder and CEO of consulting agency Policy Sonar, told VOA, "It's unclear whether she's taken note of this and thought about her own 'hedging' strategy. She should have. For while Italy is world famous for geopolitical yo-yoing, she's the current G7 chair. Moreover, it's only been a few months since Italy opted out of China's BRI, so by all accounts, relations should be delicate right now. And yet, reading the tea leaves is all but simple."
Emanuele Scimia, an Italian foreign affairs journalist and analyst and contributing foreign policy writer for the South China Morning Post, says the visit is more an attempt to balance the Meloni administration's concerns about China's market distortions and support for Russia's war against Ukraine with Italy's need to attract Chinese investments, especially in new technologies such as electric vehicles.
"Italy is a trade-oriented country and does not want an economic and geopolitical confrontation with China," Scimia told VOA. "They see China as a key export market but at the same time are worried by the flow of Chinese-dumped and -subsidized goods.
"The majority of Italy's companies are small- and medium-sized, which are less equipped to resist Chinese unfair competition. And the signing of the BRI MoU [memorandum of understanding] in 2019 has not substantially improved Italy's trade deficit with China," Scimia said. "The reality is that the BRI agreement only benefited Beijing in political terms, creating friction between Rome and Washington."
The visit underscores the fact that China remains a key geopolitical actor, said Beatrice Nicolini, a history professor at the Catholic University of Sacred Heart in Milan.
"Despite exiting the BRI, Italy aims to keep an open dialogue with Beijing," she told VOA. "Meloni is navigating a delicate balance, seeking to avoid aligning too closely with either the United States or China. This strategy of 'equidistance' reflects Italy's geographical position at the heart of the Mediterranean."
But Beijing's increasingly close relations with Moscow after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine have made improving ties with China trickier for EU nations like Italy, which are supporting Kyiv and its defense, said Christopher Lamont, a professor of international relations at Tokyo International University.
"It is also important to keep in mind that Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues to complicate China's relationships with European capitals, and Meloni's visit could also be seen from Beijing as an opportunity to foster greater influence in this context," he told VOA.
Earlier this month, NATO, of which Italy is a founding member, accused China of being a "decisive enabler" of Russia's war in Ukraine.
China has consistently denied supplying weapons to Russia for use in Ukraine and says it has strict controls on dual-use technology that could be put to military purposes.
Adrianna Zhang contributed to this report. Some information came from Reuters.
