As fighting between rebel groups and the military junta intensifies in Myanmar, experts say Thailand is shifting its approach toward its neighbor and putting more emphasis on playing a humanitarian role.
Myanmar has been in turmoil since a military coup in February 2021, with armed conflict spreading throughout the country. Experts expect the increased pace of fighting will prompt more refugees to flee across the 2,400-kilometer-long border into Thailand.
And that is pushing Thailand to do more to help the refugees, according to its government.
Earlier this month, Thai Foreign Minister Parnpree Bahiddha-Nukara said Thailand is ready to build shelters to receive Myanmar refugees, the Bangkok Post reported.
“If violence increases, there might be refugees going in all directions, not only towards Thailand,” the newspaper quoted the foreign minister as saying.
Last week, Thailand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it had agreed with Myanmar to create a task force to increase humanitarian aid for those displaced inside Myanmar during the conflict. The announcement came via press release following Parnpree's meeting with Myanmar’s military-appointed deputy prime minister, U Than Swe.
Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political analyst in Bangkok, said it’s clear that the Thai government is taking a different approach to Myanmar, but it needs to be more “inclusive” if it hopes to ease the conflict.
“Yes, the [Prime Minister] Srettha’s [Thavisin] government is taking a different tack compared to the Prayut government, and that is, take on a humanitarian role in the Myanmar conflict … that's very clear,” he told VOA.
He was referring to Thailand’s former army chief, Prayut Chan-o-Cha, who led a military coup in 2014. Prayut eventually became Thai prime minister in 2019. After nine years of power, his leadership came to an end following the 2023 general elections.
The Thai government is still dealing only with the Myanmar military State Administration Council, or SAC, Thitinan says.
“They need to talk to the people on the ground in the various civil society groups, and the ethnic minority groups, these are the people who are being affected,” he said.
“The fighting is going to get worse; more people are going to be displaced. I don’t think it’ll be a catastrophe like hundreds of thousands, but I think it will be critical.”
Since Myanmar's military junta seized power in 2021, it has cracked down on opposition politicians and dissidents. Ousted politicians and regional leaders have created the National Unity Government, or NUG, while civilians and activists have taken up arms and joined ethnic armed groups to resist to the junta.
In October, a three-pronged alliance of opposition forces launched a large military offensive, which was named Operation 1027. The counterattack began in Myanmar's northern Shan state but has since sparked a nationwide offensive, drawing in more opposition armed groups.
Dozens of townships and hundreds of junta-held military posts have been captured in what observers describe as the biggest challenge to the military since the coup.
Any new role Thailand takes will mark a change from its previous leadership.
Thailand now has a new government led by Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin. A new military chief, General Songwit Noonpakdee, was also appointed in October.
“During Prayut Chan-o-Cha’s regime, Thailand and Myanmar have been quite close, especially after the coup in Myanmar in 2021,” Lalita Hanwong, Southeast Asian history lecturer at Kasetsart University in Bangkok, told VOA earlier this year.
“The new commander-in-chief of the Royal Thai Army is more outward-looking type. He is smart. He wants to change how things work a bit on Myanmar. There are lots of talks between the parliament, the government and all the actors in the humanitarian scene here.
“It is definitely more optimistic than Prayuth’s government. I think Thailand has a lot to offer, like acting as a mediator between all stakeholders in Myanmar. I want to see a small step of peace talks between all or most of the stakeholders here in Thailand,” Lalita told VOA on Tuesday.
The recent pledges of Thai assistance haven’t gone down well in Myanmar, according to Tun Aung Shwe, the National Unity Government’s representative to Australia. He said any assistance must involve all parties.
“The people of Myanmar are deeply troubled by this collaboration, given the junta's role in creating the current humanitarian crisis to weaken opposition movements," he told VOA.
"Presently, millions of victims and vulnerable communities reside in areas under the control of the National Unity Government and its allies. To make a substantial impact, the Thai government's involvement should prioritize collaboration with the NUG and its allies.
“Without this engagement, despite good intentions, the efforts might not yield the desired positive outcome,” he added.
Despite the promise of new help from the Thai government, New York-based advocacy group Human Rights Watch says Thailand recently returned thousands of Myanmar refugees who were sheltering from fighting in late October.
According to the United Nations, 91,000 refugees from Myanmar have been in Thailand for decades, but rights groups say around 45,000 additional refugees have entered since the military coup.
Thailand is not a party to the 1951 Refugee Convention but has repeatedly pledged to protect refugees in the country.
