A formal request by Bangladesh to India to extradite former prime minister Sheikh Hasina, who fled to India after she was ousted by mass student-led protests, poses a diplomatic conundrum for New Delhi, say analysts.
Since Hasina’s exit, who was New Delhi’s close ally during her 15-year rule of neighboring Bangladesh, India has been trying to build ties with the new administration that has requested her return to “face a judicial process.”
Confirming that it has received a diplomatic note for her extradition, India’s foreign ministry said on Monday that “we have no comment to offer on this matter.”
Political analysts say relations with Dhaka, which are already fraught, are likely to be further strained over the extradition request.
“This places Delhi in an uncomfortable position and will undermine ties with the interim government because India simply cannot accede to this request,” said Manoj Joshi, distinguished fellow at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi. “She has sought political sanctuary here.”
The extradition request for Hasina came two months after the Dhaka-based International Crimes Tribunal issued arrest warrants for the country’s former prime minister. She was summoned to appear to face charges of "crimes against humanity" that took place during demonstrations in which hundreds were killed.
However, analysts say there is no likelihood of India acceding to the extradition request. Both countries have an extradition treaty, but it allows for requests to be refused if the offense is of "political nature."
“There are no circumstances under which I can envision New Delhi granting this request,’’ said Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute, Wilson Center, in Washington. ‘’Hasina has arguably been India's closest friend in the neighborhood, and for a long time. New Delhi isn't about to turn on her. It will likely try to invoke one of the clauses in the extradition treaty to justify not turning her over to Dhaka.”
The formal request to New Delhi comes two weeks after talks between India's foreign secretary, Vikram Misri, and the interim government in Dhaka raised hopes that ties between the South Asian neighbors would stabilize. It was the first high-level diplomatic meeting between the two countries since Hasina’s exit stressed relations.
India has complained about what it said were attacks on minority Hindus in the Muslim-majority country in recent months. Bangladesh's interim leader, Muhammad Yunus, who met Misri, said the reports were exaggerated and asked India to help clear the 'clouds' that have cast a shadow over the relationship in recent times. Both countries said they were keen to pursue constructive relations.
The extradition request, however, will be seen as a dampener on efforts to bring the relationship back on an even keel. “The Bangladesh government is putting pressure on India, saying that if you want friendly ties, then repatriate her,” said analyst Joshi.
India’s strong backing for Hasina during her 15-year rule was seen by many in Bangladesh as having contributed to the erosion of democracy in the country and had deepened anger against India, according to analysts in Dhaka. Hasina was perceived as an authoritarian ruler who had clamped down on dissent.
“In Bangladesh, there is widespread support to bring Hasina back to face trial. If India does not repatriate her, which it is unlikely to do, this will deepen anti-India sentiment in the country,” according to Khandakar Tahmid Rejwan, a researcher with the Bangladesh Peace Observatory in Dhaka.
Hasina’s presence in India has made it challenging for Delhi to develop friendly ties with the new interim government in Dhaka. For India, a strong relationship with Bangladesh is important to ensure stability along their 4096-kilometer-long border in a neighborhood where it already confronts Pakistan and China along hostile borders. It is also important for the security of its northeastern states that share a border with Bangladesh. Trade has grown and both countries have built connectivity projects to boost economic ties.
“India will soft pedal the extradition issue for the time being,’’ said Tara Kartha, director of research and analysis at the Center for Land Warfare Studies in New Delhi. ‘’Hopefully, once an elected government comes, they will moderate their stand, over a period of time. There is an anti-India feeling, but you will certainly not give a signal to the entire neighborhood that you will not stand by a former ally.”
Yunus has said Bangladesh's next elections will be held in late 2025 or early 2026. While the issue will be an irritant over the coming months, analysts say in the long run, both countries will smoothen ties.
“India likely knew Bangladesh would make the (extradition) request, and I'm sure Dhaka assumes New Delhi will say no,” said Kugelman, who said that while the relationship is in a “bad place,’’ the issue is “something that they can work around."
