A photo of Donald Trump defiantly raising his fist moments after being grazed in the ear by a would-be assassin’s bullet instantly went viral, raising speculation that the July 2024 attempt on the former president’s life will ultimately boost his electoral chances.
Although four presidents have been assassinated while in office and many others having been targeted by attempts, Trump joins a smaller list of presidents and presidential candidates who have been wounded and survived. Yet their stories reveal a more complex picture of political violence and its impact on candidates and voters alike.
Theodore Roosevelt
The former New York governor had himself become president in the wake of an assassination, taking office when William McKinley was killed six months into his presidency by anarchist Leon Czolgosz.
After serving nearly a full term and being reelected for another, Roosevelt had declined to seek a third but later changed his mind when he began to feel his successor, William Howard Taft, was moving in the wrong direction.
After losing the Republican Party primary in 1912, Roosevelt ran for a third presidential term under his own newly founded Progressive Party.
As he was about to deliver a speech in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Roosevelt was shot by a former barkeeper suffering from hallucinations and delusions of grandeur. Because the bullet hit an eyeglasses case and a 50-page speech tucked in his jacket, it lodged in Roosevelt’s chest without hitting any major organs, and he went on to deliver his speech for 90 minutes before receiving medical attention.
The event added to the former president’s reputation as a robust outdoorsman, earning him the nickname “Bull Moose.” But it was not enough to win the election.
Despite having run one of the strongest third-party candidacies in U.S. history, Roosevelt was defeated by Democratic candidate Woodrow Wilson.
George Wallace
By the time he launched his 1972 presidential campaign, George Wallace had served as governor of Alabama and earned a reputation as an ardent supporter of racial segregation against the civil rights movement.
Now, however, Wallace presented himself as a moderate and was on track to win the Democratic Party primary elections. The candidate had just finished giving a speech at a shopping mall in Laurel, Maryland, when unemployed drifter Arthur Bremer shot him four times, striking him in the chest and abdomen.
Writings from Bremer indicated he was primarily seeking fame rather than any political goal.
Wallace’s life was saved in an emergency operation, but one of the bullets hit his spinal column, paralyzing him for life. And while the assassination attempt elicited sympathy from allies and rivals, the extent of Wallace’s injuries severely weakened him and left him unable to campaign effectively.
After George McGovern claimed the nomination, Wallace continued in politics, unsuccessfully running for president once more and serving two more terms as Alabama’s governor.
But the incident left a more unexpected impact. During his hospitalization, Shirley Chisholm, the first Black woman elected to Congress and one of Wallace’s opponents for the Democratic nomination, visited him.
Wallace was reportedly deeply touched by the gesture. Over the next several years, he publicly recanted his segregationist views while appointing a record number of Black officials to government positions.
Ronald Reagan
On March 30, 1981, Republican President Ronald Reagan, two months into his first term, gave a speech to union representatives at the Washington Hilton hotel in the nation’s capital. As he walked to his limousine waving to a crowd, John Hinckley Jr. fired six shots from a .22-caliber revolver. Reagan was hit by a bullet that ricocheted off the presidential limousine, striking him under the left armpit and entering one of his lungs. A Secret Service agent, D.C. police officer and White House press secretary James Brady were wounded in the attack.
The 25-year-old Hinckley hoped the shooting would gain him notoriety and impress actress Jodie Foster, whom he had never met but with whom he was obsessed.
Reagan was rushed to a nearby hospital and underwent emergency surgery. Despite having come close to death, the 70-year-old president remained upbeat and projected an image of good health throughout the ordeal.
While the resulting public sympathy lifted his already high approval ratings to 68%, his reelection campaign was still three years away. In the intervening time, his ratings dropped to a low of 35% before improving again in the run-up to the 1984 election.
Conclusion
While political candidates may receive an initial bump in the polls after surviving an assassination attempt, history shows that this effect is usually limited and temporary.
And although most people remain opposed to it in principle, polls have shown that support for political violence has risen in recent years, with over 20% of Americans believing it may be justified.
As authorities seek a motive in 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks’ attack on Trump, it will be difficult to discern the electoral impact of this shocking twist in an already unpredictable campaign season.
