Vice President Kamala Harris and her new running mate held a rally in Arizona Friday as part of their tour of electoral battlegrounds, visiting a state with a Democratic U.S. senator she passed over in favor of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.
Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, a former astronaut and gun control advocate, had been a top contender for running mate. He's won two tough races in politically divided Arizona.
In passing over Kelly, Harris may have lost the chance to win over people like Gonzalo Leyva, 49, a landscaper in Phoenix. Leyva plans to vote for former President Donald Trump, a Republican, but said he would have backed a Harris-Kelly ticket.
"I prefer Kelly like 100 times," said Leyva, a lifelong Democrat who became an independent at the beginning of Trump's term in office. "I don't think he's that extreme like the other guys."
In Arizona, every vote will be critical. The state is no stranger to nail-biter races, including in 2020 when President Joe Biden bested Trump by fewer than 11,000 votes. Both parties are bracing for a similar photo finish this year.
"These last few months are going to feel like years, and it is tough to see anyone winning by a large margin," said Constantine Querard, a veteran Republican strategist in the state.
Harris acknowledged how tough the race will be, as she and Walz toured a campaign office in North Phoenix Friday afternoon and thanked volunteers, who were making signs with sayings such as "This Mamala is Voting for Kamala" and "Kamala and the Coach." (Walz has been a high school football coach.)
"It's gonna be a lot of work," Harris told volunteers, referring to winning in November.
Democrats profess confidence that Harris is in solid shape in the state even without Kelly on the ticket. The senator is expected to remain a strong advocate for Harris and is already mentioned for possible Cabinet posts or other prominent roles should the vice president ascend to the Oval Office.
"Not picking Kelly hasn't put the brakes on support for Harris," said Stacy Pearson, a Democratic strategist in Phoenix. She said she feels the same enthusiasm for the new ticket that has led to giant crowds greeting Harris and Walz at prior stops on their tour, including the home of another running mate also-ran, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.
Arizona is something of a magnet for Midwesterners seeking to escape the cold. So, several observers say, Walz may still play well there.
Arizona was reliably Republican until Trump's combative approach to politics went national.
In 2016, Trump won Arizona, then quickly started feuding with the late Republican Senator John McCain, a political icon in the state. That sparked a steady exodus of educated, moderate Republicans from the GOP and toward Democrats in top-of-the-ticket contests.
In 2018, Democrats won an open Senate race in the state, foreshadowing Kelly's 2020 win and Biden's victory there as well. In 2022, Kelly won again, and Democrats swept the top three statewide races for governor, attorney general and secretary of state, defeating Republican candidates who hewed to Trump's style and his lies about fraud costing him the 2020 presidential election.
Chuck Coughlin, a Republican strategist and former McCain staffer, said the same voters who tipped the state to Democrats in the past few cycles remain lukewarm, at best, on Trump.
"Trump's not doing anything to embrace that segment of the electorate," he said.
The campaign is already being fought over familiar turf in Arizona — its border with Mexico. Trump and his allies have been hammering Biden over the influx of migrants during his term and are shifting their attacks to Harris.
"It's very easy for us to segue and switch our sights and focus on her," said Dave Smith, Pima County's Republican Party chairman.
Kari Lake, who is running against Democratic Republican Ruben Gallego for an open Senate seat in Arizona, unveiled an ad late last week bashing Gallego for supporting what the ad calls Biden's and Harris' "radical border agenda," featuring repeated clips of the vice president chortling.
Meanwhile, Harris is targeting the state's fast-growing Latino population with her own ad highlighting how Harris, the daughter of immigrants from India and Jamaica, rose to the highest echelons of American politics.
