Moldova is expected to hold a nation-wide referendum on membership in the European Union alongside presidential elections this fall.
President Maia Sandu, who’s seeking reelection, has focused anti-corruption reforms and foreign policy on reducing Russian influence and distancing the nation from its Soviet past. She hopes joining the EU will “prevent future governments from derailing Moldova from its European trajectory.”
An avid supporter of Ukraine, Sandu has been pursuing Moldova’s EU membership since taking the office in 2020.
The EU granted Moldova candidate status in 2022. Tens of thousands of Moldovans rallied in support of national EU aspirations in May 2023, after the European Council announced it was launching the accession negotiations — the final stage in the EU membership process.
Evgenia Guțul, the pro-Kremlin head of Moldova’s ethnic minority enclave of Gagauzia firmly opposes Moldova’s EU accession efforts, claiming a lack of popular support for the move.
"I would like to note that I and many residents, and even the majority of residents of Gagauzia, and even in Moldova, are against Moldova joining the European Union,” Gutul told the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti on April 10.
That is false.
Eight public opinion polls conducted in Moldova between September 2021 and January 2024 showed that 56-to-63% of responders supported EU membership. Surveys conducted after Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine showed a significant expansion of support for EU membership.
For the assessment of the Moldovans’ attitude towards their country joining the EU, Polygraph.info used the polling data from five independent surveyors:
- Moldovan marketing, social research firm Magenta Consulting
- Moldovan market researchers Date Inteligente
- Moldova’s non-profit Institute for European Policy and Reform
- Moldova’s non-profit Center of Sociological Investigations
- The Washington-based International Republican Institute
In October 2022, the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned 12 companies and 9 individuals for their role in the Kremlin’s “persistent malign influence campaigns” in Moldova, where Moscow has been systematically capturing and corrupting Moldovan political and economic institutions. These entities, according to the Treasury report, are used as instruments of Russia’s control and manipulation of key Moldovan government sectors, including law enforcement, elections and courts.
Russia is taking measures to prevent Moldova from joining the European Union and “Kremlin likely hopes to exploit” Gagauzia as part of “its wider efforts to destabilize Moldova,” the Institute for the Study of War or ISW, a Washington D.C.-based think tank, reported.
President Sandu in February 2023 accused Russia of plotting to overthrow her and install a puppet government.
Since taking office April 2023, Governor Gutul’s opposition to Moldovan EU membership echoes Kremlin objectives.
Gutul is facing criminal charges for allegedly accepting campaign finances from the Russian government.
Moldova’s Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office “has collected enough evidence confirming Ms. Guțul’s involvement in the crime,” acting Prosecutor General Ion Munteanu stated on April 2.
Last summer, Moldova’s Constitutional Court disbanded Gutul’s Shor Party as unconstitutional, citing its illegal Russian financing.
Gutul denies the charges as “political persecution” in retaliation for her “meeting in March with [Russian President] Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin.”
Putin and top Russian government officials reportedly promised gas supplies to Gagauzia at reduced rates directly from Russia’s majority state-owned Gazprom.
Gazprom doubled gas rates for Moldova in January, charging approximately $1,230 per thousand cubic meters compared to the $750 per thousand cubic meters charged by Dutch TTF Natural Gas.
Russia’s destabilizing influence over Moldova is strongest in its breakaway region of Transdniestria, officially known as the Pridnestrovian Moldovan Republic.
Backed by Russia, Transdniestria claimed independence from Moldova after a brief war in 1992 but has not been recognized by any U.N. member states.
In 2022, EU lawmakers recognized Transdniestria as “Moldovan territory occupied by Russia.”
The region hosts an armed Russian military task force led by Colonel Dmitry Zelenkov along with the Russian Federal Security Service’s strategic communications hub, which interrogates and recruits Ukrainians caught crossing the border, according to Ukraine’s National Resistance Center.
Moldova demands that Russia withdraws from its territory.
Russia, however, has failed to fulfill its promise made at the 1999 Istanbul Summit on European security to completely withdraw troops from Moldovan soil by 2002.
Moscow also ignored a U.N. General Assembly resolution in June 2018, calling on Russia to withdraw its troops from Moldova.
Per Ukrainian intelligence, Russia keeps some 3,500 troops in Transdniestria. Outside sources estimate that number at about 1,500.
