U.S. national security experts say it is unclear whether a new cost-sharing agreement with South Korea, hailed by the State Department as “a significant accomplishment,” will survive if former President Donald Trump returns to the White House next year.
Concluded last week and effective from 2026, the five-year Special Measures Agreement, or SMA, requires South Korea to raise its contribution to the cost of stationing of U.S. troops in the country by 8.3% to $1.47 billion in the first year.
The two allies reached the agreement earlier than expected, a move widely seen as key for Seoul and Washington to clinch before the U.S. presidential election in November, in which Trump is the Republican Party candidate.
The U.S. State Department hailed the agreement as a “a significant accomplishment for both sides” in a statement released on October 4.
But Trump, both in office and as a candidate, has consistently demanded that South Korea contribute significantly more to the cost of supporting U.S. forces in Korea. Most recently in April, Trump told Time magazine that “I want South Korea to treat us properly,” adding that Seoul is “paying virtually nothing for” the U.S. troops stationed in South Korea.
‘Trump factor’
John Bolton, a former White House national security adviser during the Trump administration, told VOA Korean by phone on Friday that “it’s very likely that Trump would ask to renegotiate it.”
“I know that the administration [of President Joe Biden] here tried to rush the coming-to-an-agreement on it, so that Trump couldn’t meddle with it, but that won’t slow him down at all,” said Bolton, who also served as the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations in 2005-06.
“He never thinks his predecessors make good enough deals, and in part, it’s not just the question of economics, but he doesn’t understand collective defense alliances,” Bolton said.
“He thinks that not just with respect to the Republic of Korea, but also with NATO or Japan or whatever that we’re defending, these countries don’t pay us enough money.” The Republic of Korea is South Korea’s formal name.
Bruce Klingner, the senior research fellow for Northeast Asia at the Heritage Foundation, pointed out the pact is “an executive agreement,” which makes it easier for Trump to undo since it does not require approval from Congress.
“We really don’t know whether he would just see it as a done deal, or if he will seek to renegotiate it upward, where South Korea would pay much more,” Klingner said.
“If you take a step back, it’s in our strategic interest to have allies, it’s in our strategic interest to have our forces stationed overseas, because actually, they’re less costly to the United States when they’re stationed overseas than when they’re stationed domestically.”
Robert Rapson, who served as charge d'affaires and deputy chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Seoul from 2018 to 2021, told VOA Korean last week that he was concerned that the agreement wouldn't pass muster with a Trump administration should the former president win a second term in November.
“Given his demands and expectations of U.S. allies with respect to security burden sharing, my strong fear is that he will seek to renegotiate today’s agreement with a much higher number in mind,” said Rapson, who was directly involved in the two sets of SMA negotiations in 2013-14 and in 2019-21.
Evans Revere, who served as acting U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, told VOA Korean on Thursday via email that he suspected there was “considerable dissatisfaction with the recently concluded SMA agreement in the Trump camp,” knowing how strongly the former president feels about the burden-sharing issue.
Revere said he could not rule out the possibility that Trump will come up with “a demand to reopen talks on the SMA issue, and toward that end, he might make major new demands of Seoul” if he takes office again.
'It's in our interest'
Other former government officials, like Klingner, believe it is too early to predict whether Trump will try to revise the cost-sharing agreement between the U.S. and South Korea.
Richard Armitage, who served as deputy secretary of state during the George W. Bush administration, told VOA Korean on Wednesday on the phone, “He might try, but let’s not get fearful about this too soon.”
“If he comes to the White House, he will have a secretary of state, defense, national security adviser, et cetera, who may have slightly different views and can help moderate Mr. Trump.”
“Seoul and Washington understand that Trump is very transactional,” Armitage said. “But American soldiers are not Hessians. We’re not for rent. We’re in Korea because it’s in our interest.”
VOA Korean contacted the Trump campaign this week and asked what Trump’s stance was on the newly reached agreement, but did not receive a reply by the time this article was published.
Joeun Lee contributed to this report, which originated in VOA’s Korean Service.
